Tagged with: alternative energy, clean energy, depletion of resources, global economy, green energy, innovations in clean tech, Is Our Way of Life Sustainable?, man’s impact on the natural environment, natural environment, negative economic growth, reduce re-use recycle, Renewable Energy, scarcities in energy water food, survey on sustainability
The biggest thing to fear about the future concerns the possibility of hysterical fools joining forces with powerful politicians.
A cool reasoned approach to problem solving will get us through the looming turmoil. L.L.
We may go through a somewhat painful period, but although there is no way to be sure, probably different ways of doing things will enable us to live satisfactory lives.
This is a very difficult one to call, but a BBC Horizon program I watched tonight about Mitt Romney and his Mormon connections brought home to me the problems mankind faces in its survival. One of the points raised was that the Mormons believe that they are God’s chosen people, this raises a problem because many fundamental Jews also believe they are God’s chosen people, fundamental Islamists have a similar opinion and so did Hitler, you can’t have more than one chosen people, need I say more. I would suspect humanity’s long term survival much depends on the type of people who hold the reigns of power and leadership. If they turn out to be those with a rational view of the world and acknowledge that there are no fundamental differences between humans, whatever their colour, creed or nationality, that we are all citizens of planet earth, then we may be in with a chance. If, on the other hand, we move toward nationalistic protectionism then the outlook could be bleak, but, if we can learn to cooperate properly on an international scale then the outlook for us and the planet could be quite positive.
Turning to specifics:
With regard to energy demand/supply there is no technical reason why we couldn’t have a plentiful supply of clean, sustainable, affordable energy, assuming the population can be held to a reasonable level. In this respect I see an energy infrastructure based around clean/green carbon fuels supporting intermittent renewables and probably some nuclear too, although personally I’m not convinced nuclear is necessary in the long run.
As far as travel is concerned, as battery (electricity storage) technology improves, allowing affordable EVs with a range of the order of 1000 miles per charge, EVs will become the preferred transport technology for most situations. For longer distances evacuated tube transport (look up http://www.et3.com) holds a lot of promise, New York to Tokyo in 3 hours!
The biggest challenge I believe will be the supply of enough food and water for an ever increasing global population, and tackling this, (the ever increasing global population) is what we should be focussing on just as much, if not more than, trying to increase food, water and energy production. However, while there are many groups that consider it is their god given right, if not responsibility, to have as many offspring as possible then this is likely to be an uphill struggle.
We must get past the media having ability to control masses of people into believing whatever someone pays them to sell us. We can get a real education, or get totally fed up with everything the mass media tells us. Half truths, adding fuel to the fire, out right partisan Politics shaping , Doom n Gloom, no equal balance of good news. Glam smutt instead of substance. Movies portraying high impact stimulus to what point? The Amish and Mormons, I am neither, have a respectful position on life. I am not a Religious person, but I have my limits on useless negativity and violence mixed with sex. If you want to show some hot sex do so, but don’t make it bloody or violent. People are getting numb. Next is I-Max violence where viewers can get sick and like it. This is a “Green” site, but peace and love are renewable -Media is part of the Oil problem. (Fox News).
Greg, you’re right. The trouble is when people in positions of supposed responsibility or authority don’t understand the subject they are talking about and spout a lot of nonsense in the media, the majority of people tend to believe them, a couple of examples:
> A woman who writes a column (my green eye) the occasional green supplement of my local rag stated that it takes 15,000 litres of water to produce one Kg of beef, implying that eating less beef would save water. This is 15 tons, 15 cubic metres (yards) for 1Kg of beef, a ‘fact’ she got from waterfootprint.org. If you take the rainfall (in the UK) for about 2 years on the area land needed to grow a cow and divide it by the weight of beef produced by the cow this about the answer you get, but this is obviously nonsensical reasoning as most of that water goes into the water table to keep rivers flowing etc., the cows presence will make very little difference to this. By this reasoning I think it takes over a million tonnes of water to produce 1Kg of sustainable fish. The columnist is a solicitor.
> Another example :A local MP stated that wind turbines were a waste of time because they don’t produce electricity when you need it, you can’t store electricity, he knew this because he had been the shadow energy secretary. In which case he should have known that at Dinorwig in North Wales, not too many miles from his constituency, is one of the largest pumped hydro storage schemes in the World. O.K. to be pedantic it stores energy not electricity but I doubt if said MP would know the difference.
> Finally our current (UK) Secretary for Energy and Climate Change is an economist, and from what I’ve heard him say I’m sure he thinks that all you need to counteract climate change and the forces of nature is ‘market forces’.
As the economy goes so goes genuine efforts to harness the true potential of humanity. Because of human nature the status-quo will continue as the disparity between the haves and the have-nots increases. The hoarding masses beguile themselves into misguided action. Thuggery and mobsters are sure to abound to no avail. Humanity will sustain itself through technology and carry the load for everyone.
My optimism about what I see taking place in the technological world is constrained by the political, economic and social forces that seem to be strengthening their hold on the electorate and the media. Our inability to have an informed, rational dialog on matters of importance, and the undue influence corporate money has on our politicians, may doom many otherwise noble efforts while we continue to loot and pollute the only planet we will ever know.
No one can predict the future. Right now we have all the technology we need and it gets better everyday but many people don’t understand or want to change. Education is the biggest problem. Subsidies for dirty and bad energy like coal and nuclear also confuse the general public.
Apocalyptic predictions aside, this is a time of great change. Humanity is being called to a higher level of consciousness in response to negative consequences of past actions. We need a new story, one that embraces cooperation, dynamic balance, and integration rather than domination, aggression, and exploitation. The signs are everywhere — in science, health care, economics, education, and the very energy that fuels our lives.
Agreed, new story indeed. The striving, pioneering, entrepreneurial model of human advancement got us here, but it’s a lone-leader and sometimes winner-take-all approach, which won’t work now that the frontiers have all been found, explored and populated. The new frontier is space; earth is the home village ruled by cooperation, mutual regard, the commons, fairness and sharing.
The biggest challenge will be what humans do with their leisure, once all basic needs are readily met by technological ingenuity, conservation of resources, and the absence of conflict. Education will be key.
Agreed Juliie. This is the exact kind of intelligence that will bring the Human race past its problems. Thank you.
Well the thing is very clear: first, we must have the clear picture of the overpopulation that goes by the hand with politics in what we call “Environment” and “environmental care”. We must have a clear picture about this in order to communicate to people what are the risks.
All of the people are responsible for the causes of global warming. We can help do a lot of things but let’s be real, how many people can live without their goods? Cell phones, cars, food, etc. I think that the first task is getting to know if we can live without this and start to live naturally.
It’s an interesting survey; part of me wants to believe that mankind will rise above the discourse and prevail by developing a sustainable way of preserving nature while providing enough clean energy to live and prosper. The more realistic side of me that deals with the bureaucratic institution of government on a daily bases sees turmoil and reluctance driving civilization toward a train wreck. Mixed ideological mindsets seem to prevent progress at this time; the only hope is that the private sector and the advances in technology will soften the outcome of that wreck.
It almost appears that to avoid the wreak we have to change the water in Washington DC; the rest of the world will follow; that means ALL the current “leaders” however it may be hard to find folks who are willing to serve and have enough common sense to do the job. That’s an oxymoron.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of people willing to serve in Washington, so long as they keep getting their pockets filled by the Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas industry. Until we put a stop to that, it is unlikely we will ever get reasonable people in Washington. Yea for term limits!
Many forecasts for growth in clean energy are too low. An example is Germany where they are lowering FIT yet the growth in Solar PV is accelerating. Eventually Germany may even try to ban PV installations. Solar will have a life of its own and ultimately will not need subsidies but subsidies exist currently and this is promoting the adoption of solar. Meanwhile there are other forms of clean energy that do not require subsidies but can earn carbon credits. Expect a cap and trade scheme and 100% solar energy for the entire world within 20 years. This is what the trends suggest. Think internet growth, think PC growth.
In regards to the questions asked, the thing you have to remember is perspective. I’ve traveled extensively for the military to some of the poorest countries out there and from most of their perspective, even the poorest of us are still in the “have’s” side of the column. When you see people begging on the street and buying things with food stamps, but still wearing designer clothes and using cell phones, you start to understand that. Our poverty levels still have more stuff than probably 2/3rds of the planet could dream of owning. Yet many of those people have a dream to live like we do.
For many of us in the US we think things are bad when it costs us $4.00 or more for a gallon of gas for our cars and so then we start crying about energy conservation. I think that real change in energy conservation will happen when it becomes cheaper and easier to be energy efficient and not before. This doesn’t mean I don’t support energy efficiency because where I am able to afford it I try to be energy efficient. Nevertheless, for most “first worlders” only when the idea of energy efficiency and conservation quits becoming a fad that you pay extra for will it become a reality.
That will happen when the U.S. Congress decides to quit giving out tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer funded subsidies to the massively profitable coal, oil, and natural gas companies. If coal and natural gas lost their subsidies, like what just happened to wind energy, and they had to compete on a level playing field — we would have a lot more wind energy, because it is cheaper in many cases compared to non-subsidized coal.
As usual we need to approach this energy problem on many fronts .I think technology will be the overwhelming savior but if we also don’t get a grip on our population growth it could realistically negate all positive efforts .Unfortunately here in the states our media has been sold out so that the masses of low information voters will never know the truth, and this may be the biggest hurdle to overcoming our problems!!
Over the next few decades..?? Now frankly, would that be a difficult one to predict? I see that rich people from all nations will always want more to waste because they can pay for it. With water and food crises now looming over us, and not to mention the crisis in climate change. However, having said that, political leaders with the will, the scientific communities, and the people of the world all need to come together to make difficult things happen, so that by the next century, if our grandchildren get there, they will not be asking “Who lost the planet?” We are an intelligent species, we just need to use it better.
Mankind and the planet’s most dangerous enemies are greed and over population. The usable surface of the earth is not growing, but our population is exploding. The most dangerous factors are overzealous politicians and religious leaders around the world who do not want to talk about population control.
Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050
(historical and projected)
Year Total World Population
(mid-year figures) Ten-year growth
rate (%)
1950 2,556,000,053 18.9%
1960 3,039,451,023 22.0
1970 3,706,618,163 20.2
1980 4,453,831,714 18.5
1990 5,278,639,789 15.2
2000 6,082,966,429 12.6
20101 6,848,932,929 10.7
20201 7,584,821,144 8.7
20301 8,246,619,341 7.3
20401 8,850,045,889 5.6
20501 9,346,399,468 —
Read more: Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050 — Infoplease.com http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html#ixzz1qQQ9u9JO
In the 1960’s there was a movement called Zero Population Growth. Many people in the U.S. took that seriously, and the U.S. population growth moderated, as a result. Now, ZPG seems to have disappeared, replaced, instead by legal and illegal immigration from overpopulated and predominately Catholic places. Consequently, the U.S. population growth is once again getting out of control.
Population growth, resource depletion, resource wars, political division, rocky climate variations, people driven by fear, fighting for their own survival and wanting as much for themselves as possible, working the old saw that independent effort is the only key, not cooperation. The answer is in: love creation and others as yourself. But this will be disregarded and there will be death and sorrow of enormous proportions instead. We are now and will be suffering the consequences of not heeding the answer.
I agree with Jim Stack. What we need are some truly imaginative and informed leaders to allow swift adoption of technology that has already been developed to address most of the issues we are facing. Desalinization can provide irrigation which provides food. We have solar until the sun stops shining to generate all the energy we need, with wind and wave and tidal and geothermal to back us up. Why are these such difficult concepts to grasp?
All of the above can create the jobs we need, provide taxes when adopted, provide cheap transport & energy for all, clean our atmosphere and reverse Climate Change!
Let the science keep evolving and let us invent our future. Let’s all take the next step forward!
The economy will continue to grow as measured by gross domestic product, but this does not take into account services provided by the environment or the value of what is produced.
When the environment is disrupted by human activity it becomes less able to serve us by for example naturally filtering water through reed beds and tree roots, and less able to manage water flows during heavy rain – resulting in greater expense processing drinking water and high bills associated with flooding and water shortages.
We are already bringing substantial disruption to many ecosystems, to both local and global climate, to bio-diversity,etc. in a way that cannot continue to increase without disruptive consequences for human civilization.
How long until metaphorically speaking the fecal matter hits the rotating air circulator in a big way?
Who knows, but we would be wise to take steps now to more effectively manage the impact of humanity on the environment AND to stabilise human populations before bio-feedback does the job for us in a rapid and painful manner.
Just because the party is over doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do anything!
My greatest fear is that radical religious beliefs will combine with greed and radical political thinking to drown out science and logic.
I think your greatest fear is not something that will happen — it already has happened. We pay football players more per game than Nobel Prize winners — the complete lack of intelligence in our society is evident everywhere. We here in Denver just hired one for 5 years for $95 million — that’s $24 bucks for every man, woman, and child in Denver. Think what we could do for energy efficiency if we spent that money wisely, instead.
I’m reading Peter Diamandis’ book Abundance and I wish it were required reading worldwide. I do believe that if we would pay attention to the positive changes we can still make, then, we don’t have to have a meltdown or completely ruin the Earth and ourselves.
Mankind has adapted in the past. This time the change may be more than we can adapt to. With this in mind STOPPING the use of ALL FOSSIL (including new nuclear) fuels MAY stabilize the planet’s and mankind’s existence. This is possible because the SUN provides distributed energy for all locations and the careful capture of significant inputs in each part of the world has been calculated by scientists to meet all energy needs without fossil fuels. Do YOU have the WILL to do this or would you rather take the risk of your planet’s support system failing (and life on earth)?
Major changes in the world’s largest corporations are required. Are YOU ready to MANDATE those changes to survive?
If we don’t face the music about population control there will be dire consequences. There are simply too many humans with high standards of living, to the point of decadence. If we are to be an intelligent species and custodians of our planet, we had better act fast.
The greatest challenge for mankind is to create awareness among the majority of the educated, the semi-educated and the not-so educated people around the world about where we are heading due to our irresponsible handling and our over-consuming of limited resources and spoiling the ecosystem. Each of us who appreciates the need of the hour must take it upon ourselves to educate and sensitise as many as possible and change their mindset to undertake more meaningful and responsible actions.
During my lifetime(a few years left)I aim to reduce and cause people to reduce ghg emissions by 10000 tonnes a year by direct or indirect initiative.
I believe that humanity has reached the point of no return already with regard to climate change and as long as there are individuals who insist on ignoring all of the signs and worse fighting to prevent the logical and productive means for remediation (such as Amory Lovins proposes) then only severe crisis will in fact stop the wasteful efforts of those encouraging denialism and obstruction. In the meantime while I know there are valiant examples of truly courageous people whose efforts are making a difference it is doubtful that there will be enough of those to prevent extremely horrific conditions for many, many living things. It seems that the path of least resistence for most people is “business as usual” and let somebody else worry about it.
The leader of this world will change.
The future no.1 power of this world will be
China for the next 50-100 years because they have
better leaders and a better education system.
But if they try to reach a life standard like
the US the resources of our world will not be enough !!!
Mankind must learn to live with the limited
resources of our world or mankind will ‘phase out’.
Ralf Matthaei
Just because you do not live in China does not mean China is that great … do more homework ralf!! And do not suppose the American spirit has been defeated … others have made that same mistake in the past!
Birth control, education, focus on Seventh Generation thinking, green energy and technology across the board, sustainable food production… It’s a tall order when we see how fear warps the perception of all of the above “tools.”
We seem to be stuck with (for BIRTH CONTROL): The Pope, pro-lifers, fundamentalists, religious groups trying to out populate each other, and a political party using these issues to get votes for corporate control. (For EDUCATION): We seem to be stuck with legislators forcing the teaching of “alternative science”– Creationism and non-existence-of-climate-change… even as the residence of Micronesian Islands are climbing into boats and paddling to higher ground. Not to mention long lines of counter-productive parents sitting in their idling SUVs as they drive their children, two, three, four blocks to and from their schools, where environmentalism IS being taught and because of the fear for their children’s safety they can’t take the tax-supported, readily available school buses. (heaven forbid that they be seen WALKING the two or three blocks to school with their offspring.)
(For SEVENTH GENERATION THINKING): We seem to be stuck with Wall Street, interest, materialism, and End-of-days programs.
(For GREEN ENERGY & GREEN TECHNOLOGY): Stuck… with The Daytona 500, The Indianapolis Speedway, The Battle of the Monster Trucks, … total fossil-fuel-induced blindness. Why weren’t the resouces wasted on biofuel development instantly called out and re-focused where they were most needed… Non-carbon-generating power alternatives. A fear of wide-scoped projects. We’ll ration for wars, but not to save the planet.
(For SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION): Stuck with multi-national pirates… Factory ships, monster meat, poultry and grain corporations, uncontrolled genetic alterations. Food for politics schemes…
How does a society promote re-forestation when every November and December millions upon millions of saplings are killed for entertainment?
My, my… Don’t we have lots to do! And how many of us are taking public transportation to the hive centers to do it?
It’s a little discouraging. But setting a good example never hurts. So, walk, ride the bus, plant a truck garden, go solar, and advocate the smarting of your country… Better yet wipe out the borders and promote the smarting of the human race.
Amazing how idiotic we can be, isn’t it? One thing I would add to the short list of solutions is taking good care of our health and fitness. Consider cycling as a serious transportation option too.
Institutions that are mostly apolitical, are driven by data, and have planning horizons measured in decades (insurance companies, the military, most large corporations) do not listen to the fringe naysayers and are already making structural adjustments to alleviate and adjust to climate change. Over the next 10 years, as the tangible feedbacks of current climate change start to sting, and as a younger generation takes the helm of more institutions, these adjustments will accelerate and a political consensus will emerge. Over the next 50 years, we will rebuild our built environment and transportation infrastructure to create a sustainable, abundant energy economy. Unfortunately, it will require real and painful climate impacts to prod action, but that action will occur before the effects are catastrophic.
Good point John … We all seem to have a problem seeing more than a few days into the possible future, but your observations are point on …
The political situation in the US at this time will not allow any substantive decisions to be made. Special interest groups and their lobbyists control most of the political process which has forced the country into a period of inaction and indecision. Nothing appears in the foreseeable future that can change that.
Our complex world can not be controlled by 140 character sound bites as we seem determined to do. Leaders willing to compromise and make the difficult decisions are in desperate short supply.
Survey questions all had too many variables in the same question. Different people use different techniques when responding to such. Mine is that if any component within is invalid, then it invalidates the entire question. If there is a dependency on large numbers to smooth this, I would opine you don’t have a sufficiently large and diverse sample set.
Example: Biblical proportions? 2015? Too much in the way of qualitative and arbitrary context. Is the trend line for available resources per capita in the USA sloping downward? Easier to answer. Certainly, I have a slightly academic interest in perceptions, but the answers to such do not inform any decision making or research. With energy at the start of all supply chains, and barring extremely unlikely events such as inexpensive fusion power, there is no choice but that everything in our modern world will become more expensive. I’m probably one of the biggest solar advocates in this entire forum, but it doesn’t mean that sector will supplant fossil fuels at lower cost in the next 20 years.
On the resources side of the equation it is perhaps even worse. Population growth at the levels we are now within have extremely non-linear implications. Potable water, arable land, sustainable agriculture therein, density driven pandemic with drug resistant superbugs, massive class distinctions when viewing the entire world as a single entity and more, will all contribute to chaotic outcomes that cannot be accurately predicted, and thus have minimal potential for mitigation.
All of the above may perhaps read as biblical proportions, but that is not my intent. Humans are extremely adaptable and will tend to soldier on in whatever context our world evolves into.
Global response to Global Warming is NOT looking good & Canada, one of the largest countries geographically is a good place to watch for effects.
People do respond wonderfully to disaster. People do not respond well to famine. Even my Celtic ancestors left behind their old and ill when they emigrated to the New World under the duress of famine. If pandemic and famine hit together, don’t count on charity of the neighbors.
Community preparation in the form of local sufficiency in food, water, shelter, and energy, offers the most robust form of mitigation and survival.
We cannot go on the way we are. That is a fact. Awareness is not of the serious kind, the kind that is an enemy pouring over a border to plunder and kill, yet that is exactly what is happening. We just don’t believe it. We are not taking it seriously and human nature being what it is will ignore these very real threats to our existence until an environmental Hiroshima hits us. And if its manageable and we can survive in great enough numbers, only then will we rally against an enemy of our own making. Given such a scenario, human beings have the capacity to organise massively in order to survive. Two world wars showed that we can do it. But there will be casualties in numbers we cannot imagine. And nothing will ever be the same again. We are simply … just too many. Reg Wessels EARTH CORPORATION
There are too many corrupt people in powerful positions to think that the inherent goodness of man will prevail. There will be struggles and our wasteful way of life will change but it will be for the better – except for the above-mentioned corrupt who prefer the unsustainable status quo.
I believe that we are about to ‘hit the wall’ due to climate change. We all live on the same planet and most of the people will see the light and begin to make the changes that will save our world.
I have already made these changes and they are expensive but necessary. The fossil fuel industry may think they can control our lives and will be able to continue polluting as usual, but they are wrong.
I do fear for the future of our civilization when I hear greedy, powerful, and short-sighted people peddle their non-scientific views. I know of folks who are manipulated into believing that we can abuse the planet all we want —- that God will protect us from our own stupidity. It is frightening.
So much for intelligence and accountability.
There seems to be a general theme running through these comments, namely we could sort the problems out if politics and big business didn’t get in the way. In general I think the problem is that governments are made up of politicians who are predominately economists who employ scientific advisors whose advice they probably don’t understand. Probably what we need are politicians who are predominately scientists who employ economic advisors.
I responded earlier to an article in Renewable Energy World online magazine “Is Education the Fuel We Need for a Renewable Future?” in which I suggested that for a Renewable Future we need to address more than just science and engineering skills in education. I once heard it said that there was only one scientist in each of the three main UK parties, that would be about 1 in 200. Perhaps we should be including politics as part of STEM degrees/education in order to redress the balance in our governments, the UK are still trying to get more female MPs into Parliament, perhaps we should apply equal pressure to increasing the representation of scientists and engineers, even the church has guaranteed representation but I haven’t seen any sign of god helping us sort our problems out yet, apart from his occasional weapons of mass destruction (tsunami’s etc.) to reduce the population. By pure coincidence, as I am typing this I am listening to a discussion that’s just begun on the radio as to whether the number of unelected bishops sitting, as of right now, in the House of Lords should be reduced from 26 to 12 or possibly zero!
We’ve got serious problems but I believe we are able to and will solve them.
The advancement of green technology is in its infancy. When the first auto was presented few blacksmiths could hardly imagine the horseless carriage ever becoming popular. But if you compare that to today’s auto the differences are phenomenal. Big oil does not want a replacement to become advanced, so they will subvert any attempts to do so. The wind turbine is a classic example of this. It hangs on fossil fuel as a back up so its advancement is not subjugated. But someday soon, we will be allowed to invent and present true fossil fuel replacements. Probably after the bankers and governments are finished trashing the world.
I think the future holds “all of the above”, but the timeline is uncertain. There will continue to be good times and bad as the economic cycles roll on. However there will be some unavoidable wake up event in the next few years, even bigger than the ones we have already seen, that even the oil-soaked far right cannot ignore. Then there will be investment in clean technologies and environment remediation on a massive scale. But until then there will be some very bad times for those in the worst affected areas. Eventually there will be break throughs that allow for unlimited and cheap clean energy that will change everything. But when those changes occur relative to the very bad times, and how much of our civilization is salvaged — well that is anyone’s guess.
I wonder if unlimited and cheap clean energy, if it were to be available to everyone, right now, might not cause problems in that there could be runaway consumption? We need to evolve as a species to live in harmony with each other and our planet, and use all of our resources responsibly with justice for all.
There is no denying (though people still will) that global resources cannot sustain the present human infrastructures and population. In my estimation, tech advances alone are quite doubtful for bridging the gap to sustainability unless we quickly and carefully implement a major redesign of our energy, transportation, food and product stream infrastructures. We’re already running out of the cheap fossil energy that we need to make the transition feasible. If we don’t use the last of that ancient sunlight to build the new systems that will run on modern sunlight, we can expect the opportunity to slip through our fingers. If that last chance is lost, there is little open to us but to claw at each other over the dwindling scraps, as our societies and biosphere collapse around us. This isn’t merely about our grandchildren; it’s about our parent’s children.
It would be well to acknowledge that a huge nuclear accident has already occurred, on 3/11/2011,in Japan; and that with abnormally high temperatures day after day over much of the US this winter that we are seeing “clear evidence of a runaway rise in Earth’s temperature”. The evidence of permafrost out-gassing of methane in the arctic suggests this runaway rise is no longer a theory, but is happening.
Complete meltdown in the international banking system is also happening, in slow motion, as nation-states go deeper and deeper into debt, desperately trying to bail-out the bad bets of the ponzi banking system and rescue the financial fortunes of those who own those banks, at all costs.
The financial system meltdown is a mirror of the planetary ecological collapse, and is inevitable, as both it and the exploitation of the earth it drives is all based on exponential functions in the way our money system is structured, and in fundamental core-beliefs of separation and domination we hold as a culture.
Our climate is on the wrong path because of Greenhouse Gasses. We can reduce emissions enough through resource efficiency and renewable energy, while improving employment and economic exchange. We just need political will to tackle this global problem, for which the US is the major roadblock and the second greatest GHG emitter. “Renewable Energy is Homeland Security”. Efficiency measures to reduce consumption of all resources and reuse materials comes first, then Renewable Energy.
To me it looks as if we are turning the corner, at least in the developed/developing world, into sustainable energy technologies. These technologies coupled with new infrastructure will, in a decade or two, take root and become the norm. Technology will lead the way, and practical politics should follow. Once renewable energy measures mature, resources (time, money, attention) will be freed up to combat other planetary ills including clean water, species extinction and food distribution. Population growth is already slowing and declining population and its aftermath will be driving the issues. In the interim we will see economic, geopolitical and ideological turmoil over resource allocation. Much will be lost along the way from global warming induced changes in the environment, nations waxing and waning, continued regional conflicts, and from global economies competing fiercely with local economies. We successfully survived the industrial, transport, communications, information and automation revolutions and yielded a higher standard of living as a result, at least in the industrialized world. So I figure we will do the same for the energy revolution as well. Without some catastrophic failure at the global level such as massive epidemics, volcanic eruptions, meteor impact, or a man-made equivalent of a nuclear holocaust, the environment will likely not reach its tipping point before the corner is turned even as we continue to muddle through.
The U.S. cannot seem to learn that our Military, when sent to war, has a “burn rate” greater than our economy can sustain. The economy went bad after Viet Nam, and has gone bad now. The difference is that through the sale of mortgage backed securities to foreign individuals and governments, this time we managed to drag the entire world economy down with us.
Native American archeological sites from the first settlements 21,000 years ago, during the last ice age, along the U.S. West Coast are 300 feet below sea level, today. Global warming has been going on since the end of the last ice age. Sea level has risen an average of 38 cm per century for the last 21,000 years. Many of the Global Warming models, which try to predict the current situation are predicting an increase in sea level of 36 cm by 2100. Pretty much the same as it has been doing for a long time. Is man produced emissions accelerating that rate? I certainly don’t know. But, there is no doubt that global warming is going on and will continue, as it has been doing for the last 21 milleniums.
Given the decision to keep in place tens of billions of dollars of subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas, and to cancel the PTC for Wind Energy — I doubt that we are at all ready to come to our senses about energy. The PTC is a line item in the Energy budget, so it is an easy target. The subsidies for fossil fuels are buried in the massive federal budget. For example, maintenance standards for rail lines are much more stringent for passenger travel than for freight. So, coal that is hauled on the same lines that AMTRAK uses, gets a free subsidy — because AMTRAK ends up doing all of the maintenance at taxpayer expense. There are dozens of these “hidden” subsidies and the coal, oil, and natural gas companies are spending tens of millions of dollars on lobbiests to keep all of that in place. While the tiny subsidy for wind energy keeps being taken away — preventing any long term planning and investment in the U.S. We’re less than 2% wind energy, while some countries are approaching 20%. But, in 1999, the U.S. was number one in the world in wind energy — now we’re in last place of the leading world economic powers.
J Jones, your point would be strengthened with a better portrayal of sea level history. Check out: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_intro.html to see what has changed of late, keeping in mind that historically there was little infrastructure along those shifting coastlines compared to what is presently at risk.
I believe we are voting, much like leaving a message here – voting on our own outcome. The direction we take will be determined by our attitude to change.
I fear that oil and other fossil fuel prices are on an upward trend that has only been mitigated by the 2007 recession.
Once the economy starts to really take off, we will hasten the advent of peak oil and only those countries / states that have already implemented an integrated energy strategy or have strong centralized governments will thrive. Those whose dither, compromise and prevarication have prevailed ( Yes, that’s you successive UK Governments!) will suffer a gradual decline into powerlessness and global irrelevancy.
Why do people need to believe that the human species has some “manifest destiny” which will help us prevail against our own arrogance and ignorance? The development of human “intelligence” is an evolutionary experiment and, as has happened with over 99% or so of species, it is an experiment that ultimately fails. In our case it may occur in a relatively short geological time and be our own fault. In the face of human selfishness and our lack of ecological consciousness, we may be programmed for our own destruction. Even though the likelihood of catastrophic weather related phenomena increases daily, we are sleep-walking through time … paralyzed and anaesthetized by mass media and corporate control of our governments. Whether we react to impending disasters by awakening and applying the knowledge and wisdom that we already possess or by shrinking into prehistoric style survival clans remains to be seen.
Our way of life can be sustainable if we wish to make it so. The majority of our population is compassionate and will do what is necessary to keep our environment clean for present and future generations. If you ask for conformity to maintain a low carbon economy the majority will act but their action is still considered minimal compared to the action of the top 90% to 95% of the population who owns the wealth of the world. These people should have more obligation to provide sustainable solutions in whatever endeavor we have. Most of us have sustainable solutions to environmental problems and yet because we do not have the capital we can not implement them. You can only do it by selling the idea to the wealthy and exploiting the technology owners. This is the reason why some governments are advancing since they own the intellectuals that incubate sustainable solutions.
I am just a working stiff. I do not have any kind of renewable energy business. But 4 years ago I built us an energy efficient home, with solar water heating and 4200W of solar panels. I hope to add to that someday. If I can do it so can a lot of other folks and to hell with the politicians. We cannot look to them for anything.
We have an old house. We’ve been modifying it for better results where the expense is low enough to allow it.
Better insulation – yes. But also rig fans to blow summer air through the basement into the house – cheap cooling, and after some years the warmer soil makes a difference, small but noticeable, in the heat bill. We are no longer having trouble with frozen pipes in the winter! :-))
Back yard garden. We are still eating some things grown last summer. This has the best return on investment of anything I know, provided it is kept small enough to eat it all in your own household.
Also rain barrels. Also intensive gardening. A watering well to reduce utility demands.
Bicycles with big baskets for local transportation when the weather is suitable.
Any car bought should be efficient. Our last buy is rated at 36 MPG. By use of Slick 50 and careful driving, this can be increased. Plan trips for multiple results and low cost. A trip to get to work can easily also do some shopping.
Heat. In addition to the heat returned from the soil (mostly in fall and early winter), a large sun room on the south and bio-fuel. In the winter we only heat the first floor, unless it gets below zero when we add a little to the basement. We are adding wing insulation to reduce heat losses through the soil as time allows, and the attic is getting better insulation while bracing the south roof at the same time. When solar becomes affordable for us, we will have the roof ready. Also, we are planning and starting work on a water system to collect attic heat in the summer and put it in the soil under the house.
There is an inadequate well in the basement of our old house. Given a dry year, we will dig down a better one.
Many of these are within the capabilities of a do-it-yourself worker. Even one with a very tight budget!
While I would like to be hopeful for the future, I fear the “haves” will continue to take more, leaving the rest with little to nothing. With the current trend of the one-percenter’s control of every aspect of life and having no controls to limit political / economic power grabbing, it is a scary future of thought control and consumerism replacing a shared sense of common good and sustainable lifestyles for generations to come.
I think that the market will slowly shift to a growing awareness and practice of sustainability, renewables, and hopefully a moral capitalism that will provide the financing for these efforts.
There is a possibility that we might survive, but it will only be via social innovations such as deliberative democracy and communitarianism.
I believe we will come full circle as far as our understanding of nature and the way we need to align ourselves in our living and utlization of natural resources. Our earlier civilizations recognized this but we became arrogant in the name of science over the years and we are now responsible for the price future generations will pay.
In light of the almost certain Clathrate destabilization in the Arctic (see statements by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group – AMEG), little or no political will for equity either locally, globally and certainly not generationally. These feelings of inequality combined with almost catastrophic stress levels could create the worse case scenario of social conflagration in the coming years. I believe it’s easier to change when we feel everybody is attempting to change not just the poor or disenfranchised.
The actions of the generations before us (but mostly us) have reduced our choices to a terrifying small number. We need to respond and develop a clear plan (before the end of the year) that must set a measurable course of globally binding goals. If we fail to achieve this “impossible” plan most countries that are able will inevitably play “Last Man Standing” game. This action is so monumentally stupid if initiated it will take generations to recover from. We need to establish real foundations for a truly sustainable future; one based on the carrying capacity of the planet and equitable allocation of resources. If we rise to this challenge we will turn what seems to be a series of “impossible problems” into huge opportunities worth trillions of dollars of development, if indeed quality of life can ever be measured in monetary terms.
‘Downshifting’ on an international basis is required, consume less, waste less, switch to more resource efficient housing, food, travel/transport. Only make/buy things that we need, stop promotion of consumerism, materialism & greed.
The future is very uncertain and contains a lot of unpredictability. But I believe most so-called “solutions” will continue to be mostly short-term and often “lobbied for” narrow prescriptive measures rather than well-thought-out longterm broad changes. And a lot of that will be reaction to big events and catastrophes. This certainly has been the track record in human history. When we run out of any fuel or it becomes suddenly and relentlessly very expensive, it will be replaced or worked around. Until then, we’re likely doomed to keep on keeping on, doing the same ol’ same ol’, until those crises.
As a consequence of gradually diminishing “free” energy resources new sustainable energy production technologies are needed, many already existing. A bigger challenge than energy production will be (and already is) energy storage, as most free/green energy sources are only available periodically and not during the peak usage hours.
Using off-hour wind energy to produce fuel is a great step towards the right direction.
My motto: “Who’s got energy to spare, can get anything”
I am of the opinion that many advances in sustainable agriculture will be realized and that the importance of a stable,affordable food supply will become even more apparent to society at large. The slow food movement will form the nucleus of a more sustainable economic system.
I believe that the rich will seek investments that are consistent with sustainable development and planet best practices. As these funds become available, basic resources as a result, become attainable for most people and together with clean-tech technological advances anchors decades of long periods of prosperity.
Yes, and I used to believe in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus, too. While there are a few who will invest in that sort of thing, the vast majority of the 1% will more likely be living a more luxurious and decadent version of the lifestyle they always have. We have a few millionaires at my work and most of them just have better toys and more property. They don’t live as stewards of the land, they live as owners who can throw it away when they are done.
I don’t see the collapse of society as a direct function of the economy, but as a function of the energy crisis, water scarcity, food production, over population (we growth at the rate of 80 million a year) and waste of our natural resources.
If the ruling system does not pay real attention to renewable energy and continues with the use of fossil fuels up to the last drop, we will be confronted with the increase of global warming and the consequences of climate change.
Also, if we continue our life style of irrational consumerism, the depletion of natural resources will be a sad inheritance for the generations of the future. We are refusing to accept that our planet is finite, and that the increase of production to satisfy the artificially created need of goods, is only helping the economic interests of those who own the wealth on this planet. We have to understand that any new manufactured product is obtained with the use of natural resources.
Unless there is a drastic change to replace the “consumers’ society” by another where humanity lives according to its real needs, with a spirit of mutual cooperation and understanding, we will be condemned to the collapse of humanity as we know it.
In fact, it’s all a matter of how long it will take to get to the “point of no return”.
What’s on the table is our ability, as a species, to individually understand and mutually unite and act.
Unfortunately we have some economic greed-driven politicians in charge and, historically, we only find all our wisdom after much death and suffering.
Time is against us and there is a “point of no return” or, at least, an incredibly expensive one.
If we live the “victim” “I have rights to all this” “We elect the politicians to handle these things” mentality, down we go. If we mostly study and do with all our might what is possible for us right now, we can handle the problems. The future is for less concentrated resources than we have now. But we have had civilizations who have succeeded in this during the past, with less knowledge than we have at present. We also have had civilizations which refused to change, and went down. Suggest reading “Collapse . . ..” by Jared Diamond.
I believe our resources are depleting and humanity must be informed. Water shortages are already evident, oil shortages are already evident, food shortages are already evident, forests, animal species, fresh air… all of these are proof of our lack of responsibility with our environment and resources. New ways of producing electricity, fuels, food, and new ways of stop the wasting and increase recycling; anything more? We are sadly in a predicament and we are the ones to do something about it…NOW! Business and money are useless if we are not going to survive!
Mainstream of the energy sector should become ASAP ENEF and
RE in developed as well as in developing countries.
Doing more with less resources and energy has to be leading
principle of the future world.
The main criteria for the projects selection should be new
employment-how many new permanent jobs would be created per
unit of investment(MUSD).
There are good people and bad people,that is a given. I think it is a matter God will decide for us.