Why Aren’t We Paying Attention at this Horrific Period in U.S. History?
Caption to the cartoon (if it’s too small to read): “My God, we’ve run out of gin!”
I attended a cocktail reception last evening hosted by my old school, William Penn Charter, a small 325-year-old Quaker school in Philadelphia. I thought I would write a post about a conversation I had with a brilliant gentleman I knew from those days (the early 1970s), who had gone on to Harvard, and then to a stratospheric career with iconic management consulting firm Booz Allen and a stint as president of Raytheon Commercial Ventures.
During the discussion, he told me about an aspect of his work experience with which I had been unfamiliar, a start-up automobile OEM, which, through a bizarre chain of bad luck, had failed.
For some reason that I couldn’t discern, he insisted on covering this mishap with me in great detail, so much so that eventually I began to find this talk a bit tedious. So, at an opportune moment, I broke in and asked, “Do you mind if I ask you a question on another subject? Given your stature as one of the world’s top observers of business and economics, do you mind sharing your take on the current administration in the U.S. federal government and its implications for the world of business?”
He briefly explained that there is a high likelihood of world war in the next four years, and, even if that can be avoided, the very best we can hope for is skyrocketing inflation due to wrong-headed tariffs and trade wars that, ironically, will further cripple the people who voted for Trump. Not only will they not have jobs they were promised, but soon they’ll see their cost of living going through the roof. Regardless of how the details unfold, he summarized, all this will bring great suffering to everyone on Earth, especially Americans.
Now here’s the interesting part: as soon as he got this out of his mouth, he went back to his story about his failed car company! I was astonished. I was reminded of George Carlin’s routine as a newscaster who opens the show, “Moscow in flames, missiles headed for New York, Dodgers win in extra innings, and a chance of rain on the horizon.”
It’s mystifying how Americans are going through their daily lives as if nothing catastrophic is happening in the world around them. I’ve always admired the cartoon above by Peter Arno who writes for The New Yorker; it sure makes the point here.
The projection of disaster seems to assume that Trump will remain as president for his full four-year term and that he will be able to implement his disastrous programs. Both assumptions are questionable although not entirely impossible.
As for “…going through their daily lives as if nothing catastrophic is happening in the world around them.”, what choice do we have? Many of us are already writing letters, signing petitions, marching, etc., in addition to living our normal daily lives. What more can we do?
Trump cannot implement all his disastrous programs simultaneously and they are not all disastrous to the same degree. It is likely that when one or a few have serious undesirable consequences he will be stopped from implementing the rest and those already implemented will be reversed. Let us hope that he does not, in his impetuous manner, send an atomic missile to North Korea.
It is certainly true that there is great danger of an unprecedented and irreversible disaster resulting from Trump’s actions, but it certainly is not inevitable. Losing sleep over the real possibility will do nothing to prevent it although the actions that many of us are already taking may prevent it. And, we can work more effectively if we do not lose sleep.
Craig,
Or it could just be that the majority of people don’t really share you passion for apocalyptic doom.
Why would the action of a small, single, isolated state with no allies, result in a World War involving nuclear weapons ?
Although North Korea is capable of inflicting terrible damage to the city of Seoul, the response from the better equipped and far stranger South Korean military would quickly destroy North Korea’s military and the Northern state would collapse.
The only question remaining would be how much of the resource rich provinces of North Korea would PLA “Peace-keeping forces”, grab for Beijing.
Why always expect the worst, most dramatic scenario ?
Well, as you read in the post, this extremely senior business analyst sat right in front of me and predicted a world war or economic collapse (or both). That got my attention.
And that’s my point: I don’t understand people who believe in a “dramatic scenario” like that and pretend everything’s fine.
Btw, you’ve been following me long enough to know that I wasn’t always this pessimistic/alarmist. If the U.S. had elected a garden-variety, run-of-the-mill Republican jackass, e.g., Jeb Bush, I’d have very little if anything to say about it. But lunatics scare me.
I’m also frightened of what our scientists are telling us, i.e., that we’re ruining this planet at a horrific pace.
Marco,
You are greatly underestimating the danger that Trumpet poses. Of course doom is not inevitable and I don’t expect it to occur, yet the risk is more than significant and most definitely should not be ignored or trivialized. War certainly is one possibility. A war could easily start in ways which we cannot now predict, especially when an unstable and impetuous president is Commander and Chief of the armed services. Sometimes it takes very little to start a war after which it gradually escalates as many nations get drawn into it.
An economic collapse is also a real possibility. Trumpet’s actions could easily start a disastrous trade war, just as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act did. Actual experience shows that a trade war can cause extreme damage.
I think that a disaster will probably be avoided, but perhaps not. Trumpet could be defanged if enough Republicans in Congress stopped supporting him after realizing how dangerous Trumpet’s goals are. Also, Trumpet could be impeached although if that happened the VP would become president and he would not be a good choice either.
Predicting the future has always been fraught with peril. We can consider a few possibilities, but never be sure in advance of what will eventually occur.
It seems to me that Turnbull and others in Oz are doing enough to rivet you attention.
Frank,
I’m a little puzzled by your comment.
Who exactly is President Trump threatening with warfare large enough to worry US military might ?
If you can’t actually name a real and distinct threat, your concern would appear to be a bit paranoid.
Don’t you realize the US has been locked in a trade war for over a decade. A trade war the US is steadily losing on nearly all fronts !
The only commercial entities determined and powerful enough to take the fight to the enemy, are the Western Oil companies.
Rex Tillerson isn’t my choice for a dinner companion, but he’s just the guy to have on your side when fighting a trade war.
I’m a bit puzzled by YOUR comment and lack of understanding about what I wrote. It is doubtful that anything I could write would rectify that.
Frank,
So, I take it you can’t actually name any real potential adversary or threat ?
You just feel we should all be paranoid that President Trump may launch Armageddon for no specific reason against a huge, powerful but remarkably vague and unknown enemy ?
Okaaaay, ….
@Craig
The reason why many Americans are going through their daily lives as if nothing catastrophic is happening in the world around them Craig might just be because nothing catastrophic is actually happening that disrupts or impacts their day to day lives.
There are a hard-nosed noisy group of people in society who revel in “disaster talk” and over exaggerated hyperbole. They are problem makers rather than solutions seekers and you may be a member of that pessimistic category Craig.
Lawrence Coomber
You make a good point: some people have not been affected yet. Having said that, MOST people either HAVE BEEN or will SOON BE affected quite negatively by the current administration: LGBTs, women who depend on Planned Parenthood, Latinos, Muslims, public school teachers and the families they serve, union workers, environmentalists, minimum wage earners, those who make use of PBS, NPR, and the National Endowment for the Arts, Internet users, human rights advocates, disenfranchised voters, all people who live in storm/drought-prone and low-lying regions, people with existing lung disease, 22 million people whose healthcare comes from the ACA, the 6.5. million people whose weekly paychecks come from the solar industry, and many others.
Craig,
You’re quite right. Although I personally am retired and not likely to be affected by Trumpet’s proposed cancelling of LGBT protections, as a former activist for LGBT causes, I am well aware of the potential problems.
Trumpet is so unpredictable that we can only guess at what may happen, but the dangers are very real.
Craig,
I’m sorry, could you repeat all that ?
I couldn’t hear you, what with the noise of preparing equipment to grind the faces of of the poor,getting my dragoons ready to scatter the verminous rabble, while indulging in a decadent, but vicious, lifestyle of debauchery, it difficult hear myself think !
I know Breath will quite accurately criticize us a traditionalists, and I realize that the use of Tanks, as used in those socialist ‘Peoples Republics” are some much more modern and efficient, but well,…y’know we still like the old traditional horse dragoons. More sporting and far more colourful, provides a more picturesque spectacle, and sabre wounds are more satisfying and elicit than just squished bodies.
Ah ha, weel here’s the old orderly with a tot for the troops and a glas for myself! Must be off, …be sure to get a good spot to watch….
Tally ho !
Lawrence,
Well, if a little harshly, said!
Jared Diamond is probably best known for his book “Guns, Germs and Steel,” but he also wrote “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.” In that second book he reviewed several societies including the once thriving community on Easter Island. The island once had forests but he theorizes that the society collapsed because they cut them all down.
And so he posits, “What was the person thinking who cut down the last tree on the Island?” Perhaps we are supposed to consider that one person responsible to the final fate of the former society, but it seems clear that person was likely absolutely thrilled with their good fortune at finding a tree that could be cut down.
Whether it is people in organizations or individuals in a country it does not seem natural for individuals to consider the larger implications. And certainly it is not common for social implications to be considered as a priority over individual needs.
We have attempted two means to get around this natural tendency for self preservation. The first is for the individual to commit to give up all sense of the personal, this is the path of renunciation. Here you might find whistle-blowers and social workers. The second is to attempt to so provide for the individual that it obviates the need for personal concerns. And so we see things like tenure and inflated CEO salaries. Neither is entirely successful. The former does not entirely address envy and the latter greed.
Just as there are people who want peace and prosperity there are those who long for the chaos of war. In between there are those who only wish to be able to put one foot in front of the other. Their concerns are personal. They’re just trying to survive. Prosperity can allow the masses to turn to unpredictable personal interests. Security threats have long been used to organize the masses, often to follow demagoguery.
It is suggestive that Trump has filled his cabinet with Bankers and Generals, although it is not entirely clear that he is completely in charge. Just as in the Bush era we complain about the figurehead but the real power and the real problems may lie with those behind the scenes.
As much as Republicans have talked of fiscal responsibility and “balancing the budget” it seems highly likely that the Trump administration will attempt to pursue a path set by the Bush era of heavy deficit spending. Along with deregulating the banks this could easily lead to another financial collapse.
If the president is in charge, he is not a warrior. He talks and acts tough but he is primarily a negotiator. His unpredictability, and inept statesmanship could easily lead to war, but that rash unpredictability may cause some to avoid a confrontation. The concern would be that the Trump administration comes to view war as a negotiating tactic and nothing more consequential than a lawsuit. There will be a learning curve.
Breath,
Interesting set of observations, thanks for posting.