Examining the Paradigm Shift To Renewable Energy
When I look at photos of U.S. cities taken in the early 20th Century, I like to guess the year before I look at the caption–and I’m almost always correct within a few years. How? The ratio of cars to horses, which changed dramatically in such very short period of time that it’s a piece of cake to tell the difference between, say, 1910 and 1915.
As we sit here 110 years later, we need to ask ourselves what we can expect in the coming decade or two vis-a-vis the transitions in energy and transportation–especially given the greatly accelerated pace at which technology is developing and cultural norms are changing compared to the old days.
Here’s a paper by global consulting organization Wood McKenzie, suggesting that renewable energy will replace fossil fuels far sooner than most people have predicted; its authors refer to renewables as the “Netflix of the energy sector.”
IMO, these people have nailed it. There are no prevalent conditions that suggest a slow phase-in over half a century. Efficiency solutions have lowered demand, the costs of solar and wind energy are plummeting, and, in most parts of the world, people actually care about the quality of the environment. This is a paradigm shift that I predict will happen very quickly.
Btw, how did telephones landlines fare when cell phones got small and cheap? Like ice cream on a hot day.
Craig,
I’m sure we all hope your optimism is proved correct.
The problem with your scenario is the technology doesn’t get exist.
The problem is energy storage. Oil (gas-coal) is a very economical easily accessible,very convenient and versatile means of delivering high yield energy to a wide variety of locations.
For this reason, alternate energy sources are restricted by limitations. Hydro needs damable rivers,Wind And Solar are intermittent and mostly only economic with massive subsidies, while most other renewable need ideal locations.
Prices for renewables are no longer dropping, that was an illusion created by very high early costs, and Chinese Dumping policies.
The future relies upon achieving a “breakthrough” in ESD technology. R & D to achieve such a breakthrough is proceeding with great diligence all over the world, but so far with no tangible results.
Meantime the cost of Oil and ICE technology is also dropping as newer and more environmentally friendly sophisticated varieties of existing technology arrives on the market.
But, who knows ? Tomorrow, someone in in some laboratory may be working on a brilliant new technology to make your optimism into reality !