Tag: Black Swan effect

A friend sent me this piece predicting a spike in worldwide political violence in the 2020s. Craig: I don’t put any credence in this at all, for a few reasons, primarily the so-called Black Swan effect, i.e., we tend to …

The Black Swan Effect: Why Predictions of the Future Are Hard to Make Read More »

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I wrote a post recently in which I mentioned the Black Swan effect, i.e., the tendency of human beings to underestimate the importance and frequency of unforeseeable events in the future. This concept, popularized by Nassim Taleb in his 2007 …

We All Wield Tremendous Power to Restore Environmental Justice Read More »

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Pessimistic articles on climate change like this one from yesterday’s New York Times always get me thinking: what can we be doing to cut back on fossil fuel emissions? Obviously this is a tough problem in a number of ways, principally …

What Will It Take to Mitigate Climate Change? Read More »

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