"Discontinuous" Climate Change

Here’s a “Ted Talk” that outlines the worst-case climate change scenario.  The presenter is correct in that the IPCC’s projections are very likely on the conservative side, insofar as they need to be accepted by many hundreds of scientists before they’re released. When I interviewed IPCC chairman Dr. Rajendra Pachauri as part of my second book (“Is Renewable Really Doable?”), he told me that publishing one of these reports is an extremely demanding and rigorous process.  I don’t doubt it for a second.

Having said that, the notion of  “discontinuities” doesn’t make much sense.  Yes, we face melting permafrost, decreasing albedo, the increase of insolation due to the sunspot cycle, etc.  But the Earth’s climate is a sufficiently large network of systems that abrupt changes in anything are not at all likely.

The problem isn’t that Italy is going to turn into a desert in twenty years; it’s that slow and horribly damaging change is inevitable if we do nothing to avert it.