Trump Polling Quite Well, Could Win

Here’s the part I don’t get.  Trump lost in 2020 by seven million votes, and the events that have occurred since appear to help his opponent.

In particular, we have the revelations concerning Trump’s criminality.  This is likely to drive larger voter turnout, most of which will be opposed to the former president’s re-election.

There must be something I’m getting wrong here, but I can’t imagine what it is.