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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Alex C. goes on:

In early 1900’s many cars were EVs and then they lost out to gasoline engines due to better cost and performance. 1970’s a large EV wave came in with the fuel crisis that caused gasoline prices to increase greatly…again gasoline won out as fuel prices dropped. Now again we get another EV wave due to high gas prices. Now why will EV win a niche in developed countries? The key enabler is lithium-ion technology that can get the power (he means “energy”) density up for a range that is usable for some consumers and the pack cost will result in economics that work when scale is large enough (500k per year per battery plant).

Yes. And depending on whom you ask, this is really happening quickly. I interviewed an extremely senior engineer and businessman the other day who reminded me that Moore’s Law very much applies to both the cost and energy density of Li-ion batteries. I’d like to think this is true — and it appears that it may, given the last couple of years.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Alex C continues:

The writers of this article obviously have no experience in what it takes to design, develop, manufacture, and market a new vehicle – especially with new technology. One error and the OEM has one vehicle on the road that caused harm to a human and its business is over.

You’re 100% correct that the OEMs need to have a carefully implemented strategy that calls for limited real-world use for the first generation, to identify and rectify issues that were invisible up to that point. And safety, of course, is only one category of such issues. Though this does not explain why we have no EVs on the road more than a century after the invention of the automobile (punctuated by the treachery of the late 1990s), it does explain why we cannot expect millions on EVs a couple of years after the decision and commitment to go forward in that direction.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Alex C. makes so many wonderful points in his comment on Brass Tack #1 that it’s hard to know where to start.

EV’s and related enabling technologies (batteries, charge stations, motors, inverters, converters, etc.) are great areas to invest in. Avoid investing in small OEMs who are only styling or assembling – instead invest in the suppliers and OEM’s who are leading in the enabling technologies.

There is no doubt in my mind that this is correct. I reviewed a business plan of a start-up whose model is essentially micro-assembly of subsystems into a finished EV. Their plan called for a gross margin of 33%, less 25% to the dealer. Yikes. If their own plan isn’t more optimistic, I’d hate to see what happens in the real world. They had trouble getting funding. It’s not hard to see why.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Bruce Hamilton writes:

(I’m) VP of Business Development (with) an MSEE and 40+ years of engineering and marketing management experience in all types of electronics companies. I have found good opportunities for my company to enter the solar PV inverter market and the Smart Grid (all four layers) using basically our current product lines and one new disruptive technology we are bringing to the market…..My problem with the EV market is sorting out all the opportunities to find the best match between our corporate culture (we are a public company so have little patience with slow to mature revenue and profit), our corporate product strengths, and niches in the EV market.

Thanks for writing, Bruce. This, of course, is yet another force working against us all. As a marketing consulting in high-tech, I spent almost 30 years making friends with clients at places like H-P, IBM, National Semiconductor, DEC, GE, Litton, Sony, 3M, etc. Even though I wasn’t even an employee of the companies, I could share in the frustration many of these fine people suffered in their failed attempts at innovation in a stuffy, ultra-conservation corporate environment. I wish I had an answer for you.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

Mark Chapmon writes:

After reading an article called “A Confederacy of Dunces,” watching “Who Killed The Electric Car” and giving thought to the grid tied solar array I had designed and installed in my backyard that my local utility will not allow me to operate, I am certain that the affordable electric car will not happen in my lifetime in the state of Alabama. …. Our politicians have written laws that are not designed for the good of the people, but for personal pocket-lining and for appearances sake.

I hear you. I’m sure you can see from a great number of the blog posts here that I share your cynicism. Is it depressing? Potentially. But that’s why I blog. The only chance we have is to inform enough people about what’s truly going on behind the scenes.

And thanks for the recommendation of “A Confederacy of Dunces.” I’ll put that on my list.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

An electronics engineer engaged in the manufacturing of automobile parts in India writes:

A few years back I designed and manufactured the smallest gasoline powered two wheeler in India and sold around 100 of them. But as you know the two stroke engine was a major environment threat, so we discontinued it. Your email came to me at such a time that we had just finished the testing of the same vehicle with an electric motor, and after reading the first brass tack I have become more determined to go ahead with the conversion of my old design to electric one, keeping the school kids in mind and other short-distance commuters. We are also working on the e-rickshaw. I think we all have to do our bit to save the environment.

In my mind, this underscored a great number of really cool things I see going on the renewable energy space:

It’s happening all over the world.

In many cases, it’s a selfless, pay-it-forward thing, happening on behalf of future generations.

We all have the power to inspire one another. I told my wife and kids about this reader’s decision to pursue her EV design, and it brought tears to my wife’s eyes.

Thank you.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

A reader takes issue with my comment that, if driven a certain way, PHEV owners would experience “near infinite MPG,” referring to it as “dishonest and disingenuous.” He goes on, “Energy is still being consumed, that must be produced somewhere and has a cost. In all cases the energy should be taken into account. Perhaps we will need a new metric in future, but for the time being documents such as yours should talk about mpg-e, or miles per gallon-equivalent.”

There are two issues here.  One is the actual MPG (in terms of gasoline) that drivers experience, and this itself is a hot topic.  I’ve had numerous conversations with Tony Posawatz, the Vehicle Line Director for the Chevrolet Volt, about his frustrating dialog with the EPA over the difficulty of assigning a fair MPG number to the Volt. 

This reader’s point, however, concerns the carbon associated with the electrical powerer being used. And of course he’s right that even a pure EV has a carbon footprint that includes the cost of generating the electricity. As I’m sure readers are aware, even with the dirtiest power generation technology (coal) with no modification to sequester the carbon, EVs still represent a significant boon to the environment. And, of course, as the migration to renewables progresses, this will only improve.  This whole calculus makes it virtually impossible to identify an “MPG-e” with any real accuracy.

I can assure the reader that I had no intention of being dishonest, btw. “Wow,” as my teenage daughter would say, as she rolled her pretty green eyes. 

But let us not forget, as I’ve written elsewhere, we could charge 90 million EVs this very evening with off-peak power that would otherwise be dumped back to ground.  And we’re a very, very long way from having 90 million EVs on our roads. 

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketAgain, I urge readers to check out the comments on the Three Brass Tacks landing page, and to enter more if desired. I just read that incredibly lucid thoughts of Arlene Allen on the EV adoption curve, in which she brought up several factors that I omitted, for example, V2G. To me, her summary is spot-on: fun and interesting to talk about, but extremely unlikely to shape the calculus meaningfully in the foreseeable future.

IMO, her comment on the Volt applies to all PHEVs regardless of the financial health or design savvy of the OEM, i.e., it’s regrettable to have to own, maintain, and lug around two independent sets of energy storage systems and energy conversion equipment. With Moore’s Law applying, as it appears to be, to the energy density and cost of lithium-ion batteries, the whole PHEV concept may be short-lived.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketSteve Ryan from Australia writes: There must be millions of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars sitting at ports and storage lots all over the world awaiting delivery to owners who do not want to buy them.

I have to think you’re right, Steve. As if the car companies needed more trouble, they face customers’ anticipation of a disruptive innovation — anticipation that I would think would make it very hard for them to sell what’s in dealers’ showrooms right this minute. My 1995 BMW 540i has 204,000 miles on it, but it’s still in my garage because I’ve sworn to myself that I’m never going to by another ICE-based car. I can’t believe I’m alone in that decision.

For grins, I called my local Toyota dealer and asked his, “When can I buy a Prius that I can plug in?” He said, “Oh, we have not plans to offer anything like that.” Now, of course, if by “we” he means Toyota, this is not at all true. But I’m sure, based on what he’s been told, he’s telling the truth. Why tell a dealer ANYTHING that will make it hard to sell what’s on his lot?

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

I want to thank readers for their enthusiasm for Brass Tack #1 on Electric Transportation. As I knew I would, I see an incredible spirit of devotion and commitment to ecological stewardship, and a positive attitude that something can be done to correct the mistakes we’ve made in the past.

I feel more strongly than ever that 2GreenEnergy will become a forum for meaningful discussions and a meeting place for likeminded people to share their ideas that will ultimately change the course of the entire civilization with respect to the health of our environment.

In the coming days, I will post my views on some of the concepts that have been raised in the comments, and so I encourage readers to post their viewpoints.

Again, please accept my sincere thanks.

 

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