Electric Vehicles and Better Place
David Holden writes:
I am no adherent of Shai Agassi’s dubious scheme, but it does show the willingness of power companies to support EV. development.
As long as think has come up, here are my thoughts on Better Place.
1) I know the world is clamoring for electric vehicles, and that’s a good thing. But rushing headlong at Better Place seems very strange to me. At a minimum, it’s monopolistic. The state governments, e.g., California, are handing this guy a monopolistic position that is sure to be abused. By contrast, the cell phone companies (who are still making money hand over fist) must compete with one another. I suppose you have to give Agassi credit that he is able to talk his way into this position, but I find it outrageous.
2) Having said this, I really don’t think it’s the right solution for the United States anyway. I know I can be accused of optimism, but I see the entire “chicken-and-egg” or “Catch 22” of EV production, battery supply, battery energy density, battery cost, charging infrastructure, and consumer acceptance/demand unravelling roughly in sync with one another over the coming decades. Will there be “fits and starts?” Of course.
Hello, Craig,
Yes, you are right. “Better Place” is having contacts with several countries to see how far may go. If a country does not limit their action, they will get everything. This means monopoly.
The robotic batteries replacements does not make any sense to me.
In Portugal, “Better Place” will have no monopoly, because the electrical
monopolization is already there since long time ago.
The idea is only about a batteries plant, as well as some fast recharge stations.
What we really need in a big amount, are public recharge points, 230 VAC,
16 A, working with bank cards in the same way as public telephones or self-service gas stations.
Tks, Best Regards,
Manuel Gama
The “Better Place” first business model for battery swapping is a loser. They appear to be learning that as they are shifting instead to charge stations. In terms of battery swapping on EV’s, how many cell phone users do you know who carry an extra cell phone battery with them or even own an extra one? Even lap tops today…how many people keep an extra battery anymore? It’s because charging is so easy and fast. The key premise of his model is changing…he assumed charge times would be very long (8 hours) and ranges very short. New high voltage and DC to DC charging technologies will make charging almost as fast as pumping in gasoline. For mega-cities the mini-EV’s will be needed and will have very good range….100 km or even more. Also, many of the users will adapt to the range and arrange their schedules to charge conveniently at home when they are sleeping. Also, the costs to adapt the EV itself to allow the large and heavy battery pack to be removed and re-installed quickly is very large and will make the EV itself a loser compared to other EV’s. Also, the investment costs for the battery-swap facilities are enormous. I am sure his business models and financial forecasts were full of poor assumptions to get people “on board” this swapping bandwagon. He needs to take all his energy and put it to quick-charge technology, public stations, and private stations. He appears to be shifting that way. And as we know…there is MUCH competition in this space. Charge stations will become a standardized “commodity” fairly fast if EV’s ever become economically viable.
Standardization is always a bit seductive. Unfortunately, it will rarely and simultaneously plays to the incoherent nature of societies and human beings. Going for a ‘sunday drive’ makes no sense, but lots of people do it. Biggest left brain “Aw S…” to Agassi’s plan? Standardized form factors inhibit innovation in a technology that, at the moment, should be all about innovation. You can number me as one who believes this idea won’t play out very well.