EV Adoption Curve — Market Research of Questionable Validity
My fine friend and 2GreenEnergy associate Terry Ribb did a long and productive stint at Deloitte Consulting, and thus I tend to put special value on the reports I get from that esteemed organization. But when it comes to market research, they seem to have made the same critical mistake that most people do: survey the wrong people. Here’s their recent report on the EV adoption curve.
Do you note anything startling?
In response to Deloitte’s question, “From whom would you be most likely to purchase an EV?” the top three responses are Toyota, Honda and Ford – none of which even have EVs in production yet — and two of the three — Honda and Toyota — are openly waffling on the idea.
The report goes on to suggest that Nissan needs to work extra hard to promote its LEAF, since it seems not to have been noticed by EV buyers. Bull manure. I find it hard to believe that almost anyone of any real relevance to the survey would have named Nissan with its LEAF, GM with its Volt, Mitsubishi with its i-MiEV, BMW with its Mini-E — or any of dozens of other serious EV programs from established and new OEMs.
Think about this. If you were conducting an interview about attitudes towards professional baseball, and the respondent couldn’t name a single major league team, could you imagine any real value to the rest of the interview? My only take-away from this report is that the research effort itself missed the mark.
Here’s another post further confirming that Deloitte is taking a very strange perspective with respect to the EV adoption curve.
Like “Solar thermal” startups, Electric Vehicle startups like Tesla,Fisker,Coda require large amounts of capital to go into production.The continuous need for large capital infusions makes partnerships with established companies with large balance sheets essential . I think some of these ventures would be eventually be absorbed by the Honda’s and Toyotas of the world
http://greenworldinvestor.com
Bingo!!! Ludicrous that such an oversight could be made by anyone with any research skills. Qualifying the respondants in terms of basic knowledge on the subject would have been the first order of business if one intended to gather meaningful information.
To expand on your sports comparison, they showed up at a hockey game with a baseball glove.
All of Ghosn’s interviews and writing have emphasized the concept of leap-frogging hybrids. Agassi has successfully convinced a number of leading individuals in the automotive business. Toyota is getting cold feet on doing nothing but hybrids and decided to get in bed with Musk. In reviewing the survey, the first thing I am struck by is largely Craig’s point. The questions are at a level of detail that less than 5% of the population is equipped to read, let alone answer. One gets pointless answers when asking a marketing executive how they feel about sodium coolant in breeder reactors. With changes in the economics ($5 gas), so will there be changes in the acceptability of solutions.
Check Tesla Motors @ Teslamotors.com and you will see that Toyota has bought a large amount of Tesla’s stock to form a partnership to build EV’s. Tesla has suspended further sale of it’s stock.
Yes, I’ve been writing about that: http://2greenenergy.com/tesla-toyota/3733/
Gentleman, Very well put. As for production of a high- 200 to 300 mile/range
and Level 3 Charging System like (5 to 15) minutes, will not happen with companies like Nissan, Totoyas, Honda and Ford. Nobody wants that type of Technology in a Three Wheel Green Egg. And if you did, the price would exceed
$60,000. to 100,000. So they will wait for companies like us (smaller brain trust) inventors, patent holders, that have the technology already.
Classic Muscle EV & ES Division, SSI-Racing, EV-Blue and some others have already perfected the technology. That’s why you can buy a EV-Electric Powered Muscle Car with great mile/range and with a 5 minute charging time, not 3 to 8 hours, like all the others. Also go to a Classic Muscle Dealership and
order from 32 different Muscle Cars with better technology.
Our testing platform shows, EV buyers would rather buy a Muscle Car with Technology and Speed then a three wheel green egg or even a mini van.
And the Dealerships can’t agree more.
This is when Detroit should of brought back the Muscle Era.
But Now, TN will be known as the Next DETROIT! And this is just the
beginning in EV Technology.
The next three years, these other Car Companies will be buying & licensing there technology from companies like us.
Example: Just a taste of the EV Technology:
ES- Electric Semi’s – 500 to 800 Mile/range – 15 mins to charge.
ET- Electric Tow Trucks – to bring you charging fuel – complete charge in 5
minutes and mechanical experience.
EC – Electric Commercial – Vehicles with better mile/range and charging times.
And then finally; Charging Stations, Nation-wide and Drive-up to a Charging pump and in 5 Minutes a full charge; Cost approx $2.50.
Gentleman – “Thats the Wave of the Future” by HH.
Classic Muscle LLC agrees, with everybodies concerns, thats why all the
parties involved have invested years and hundreds of millions to start the EV Industry with no Bull.
Any questions please ask, we have a Q&A, FACT page plus will answer any questions.
Have a Blessed Day.
I am stunned, I re-read the descriptions of the individuals they wanted to get a response out of then asked a auto company executive not the redneck on a rural farm would respond. Give me a break… and hello “Stupid”, it is not necessary to park in a garage to recharge. longer weatherproof cords and exterior outlets are available. Do you have to be in a garage to pour gasoline into the tank? and every charging outlet does not cost 1.5 million dollars. most charging can be done by plugging into any 120 v. at 20 A standard outlet perhaps my barber will put in four or five and increase his business as we use a dollars worth of electricity while getting our hair cut and his business grows. there are already a lot more exterior outlets around than gas pumps. And I bet those guys that service the tire air compressors and car vacuums can add an outlet and another coin box to the kiosk and rent the use of a recharging outlet too. or two…
I wonder if this is an honest attempt at good research or disinformation? Who stands to make a buck from this? Is a paper like this sold or how does Deloitte make money from it? When I read what appears to be something dumb coming from people who should be smarter I sometimes wonder if it is intentional. I guess it’s the conspiracy theorist inside me kicking in…
Thanks for writing, Marc. That’s precisely the point I made in the companion post: http://2greenenergy.com/adoption/3749/. You cannot tell me that an honest treatment of the subject would have come to the conclusion they drew — that EVs face a slow and awkward adoption curve that renders the whole subject of electric transportation irrelevant and meaningless. It’s so obviously wrong that I just want to know who commissioned that report. If you figure that out, please let me know.
The previous responses have said it all.
I believe that the comment “…the same critical mistake that most people do: survey the wrong people…” is at the root of the problem.
Who are the right people then? Only the ones who think the way we do?
Drawing the same analogy, the interview was not about “attitudes” towards professional baseball, but if you (the normal people, they asked – that means, 99% of the so called customers) watch and inform yourself about baseball at all.
And the interview was also not about “who has the better team?”, rather than something like ” if you would watch (because today you don’t), how would you choose your favorite team: the one with most success last season, or the one which stadion is closer to your home?”
Teaching the people what they should believe and how they should act is something for the priests.
Recognizing what people like and selling it them (even if they don’t really want to accept that they love it) is somthing for salesman.
Persuading people to make something better for the community in despite of personal disadvantages is something for the leaders.
Choose your role and you know how to use the results of the survey.
I had to visit the feed store today for a couple hundred pounds (4 bags)of horse feed, and I stopped at the convenience store for a ”Pepsi” on the way home. a neighbor was there, ahead of me and bought a candy bar and $10 in gas for her pick-up. I asked her how far she got on such a small amount of gas and she said she always bought $10 twice weekly because it took over $50 to fill-up My brain was churning so I said thats three and a half gallons right, and you get what about fifteen miles per gallon so that is fifty miles worth, right? She said that yes it lasted three days cause she only drives about sixteen miles daily cause the kids are only three miles to school and thats twelve miles a day and its two miles to this here store and I come here every day too. So I said if you let me convert that old ranger pick-up to electric you could just plug it into the outlet at home to re-charge at night for four hours or so and the electric would only cost two dollars a week. instead of twenty for gas And no oil changes and tuneups so thats another 500 every year, And a new all electric drive would last a million miles, so them kids of yours could sell it for an antique when they git out of college. Cause it would still be running and converting is about the cost of a three year old used truck. the savings in gas and oil changes is over $1,500 a year, so there is half the finance payment and conversions last longer than even five year terms, from “Our Favorite Finance”, (Your Daddy ! )
So what did she say? Could she afford ‘a three year old used truck’ to add to her existing vehicle and make the switch? I bet it is easier for her to find $20 per week than it is to put her hands on that much capital.
An easy, immediate and helpful step would be to start converting vehicles to generator/electric motor hybrids, starting with semis and SUV’s. We could go from 15 mpg SUV’s to 100 mpg SUV’s TODAY with longer range, quicker, faster and easier to repair with fewer repairs needed and less maintenance too. Then as better battery technology comes along the conversion to all- electric is very simple, the vehicle is already electric. Meanwhile the pollution drops by a factor of 10, more jobs for conversions and small engine techs, gas stations are still in business, no worldwide shortage of lithium, and Americans will convert because the gas peddle gives an even better response and they can feel smug because they get twice the mileage of those gas guzzling Prius and Insight.
Everybody needs to view the documentary call “Who killed the Electric car?” and look back at our recent history in Calif. At least with this administration there is a chance for a proven idea to succeed while reducing CO2 emissions by over 90 percent. Its time for people to stand up to oil companys and special interests by supporting the electric vehicle. Let politicians know that you’re in favor of better air quality. Charles DeMo CSBA
it is very interesting to read me that blog. Thanks for it..I asked her how far she got on such a small amount of gas and she said she always bought $10 twice weekly because it took over $50 to fill-up My brain was churning so I said thats three and a half gallons right, and you get what about fifteen miles per gallon so that is fifty miles worth, right? She said that yes it lasted three days cause she only drives about sixteen miles daily cause the kids are only three miles to school and thats twelve miles a day and its two miles to this here store and I come here every day too. So I said if you let me convert that old ranger pick-up to electric you could just plug it into the outlet at home to re-charge at night for four hours or so and the electric would only cost two dollars a week. instead of twenty for gas And no oil changes and tuneups so thats another 500 every year, And a new all electric drive would last a million miles, so them kids of yours could sell it for an antique when they git out of college. Cause it would still be running and converting is about the cost of a three year old used truck.