Nissan's Leaf and the Electric Vehicle Adoption Curve

I commented last week on the Wall Street Journal’s article on Nissan’s electric vehicle – the Leaf.  The author points out that Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has made this commitment “without even knowing if people will buy them.” 

Every time I come across this idea, I wonder exactly what the writer means.  Obviously, people in one-car families who take that car on frequent long trips will be extremely unlikely to put up with the inconvenience of a pure battery electric until fast charging stations are ubiquitous – and we’re certainly a million miles from there. 

But isn’t it equally obvious that many people in multi-car families with garages will be eager to replace one of their cars with something that costs 80% less to fuel – and even less to maintain?  I know there people who don’t care about the environment.  But even people who can’t spell “ecology” or “terrorism” or “war casualties” or “lung cancer” will see very quickly that an EV is a good idea purely on a dollars and cents basis.  After rebates, the Leaf will cost under $20,000 in many states.  Nissan — and those who follow — won’t be able to build enough of them.