Powerful Forces Are Both Pushing and Pulling Renewable Energy

People often ask me to tell them what’s happening in the energy world in an abbreviated form.  That’s not particularly easy, as there are many forces at work right now that are pushing in two different directions at the same time.  Here’s a quick list.

Why is the Migration to Renewables So Slow To Occur?

• The world is more corrupt than it used to be; big money wants the status quo, and is generally able to buy it from Congress.

• The recession; investors are nervous; uncertainty about the legal side, the disappearance of the 1603 (cash grant), PTC (production tax credit), etc. To a large degree, this is a result of the above.

• Low natural gas prices.

• The energy industry continues to spread lies about climate change and other environmental issues.

• The European debt crisis has put a crimp in clean energy investment in the EU.

OK, But Why Will This Happen?

• Investors need a place to invest; they won’t sit on the sidelines forever. The energy sector is clearly headed in this direction eventually.

• The media portrays clean energy as a loser, but in reality, PV doubled in 2011 over 2010.

• The last few climate change deniers are defecting.

• Barring a dramatic shift, Obama will win a second term.  It’s possible (though far from certain) that he’ll use this to do the right thing vis-à-vis an energy policy.

• Large countries outside the US are making huge investments in this space.

• The costs of clean energy continue to fall as quantities achieve scale.

• The pace of technology innovation continues to accelerate.

• There is some non-zero level of sincerity on the part of the large energy companies to get into renewables; Chevron, e.g., actually does have a clean energy business.

So which forces will prove more powerful?  Let me whip out my crystal ball; I’ll get right back to you….