Daniel Yergin’s Talks on the Major Trends in Energy Leave an Elephant in the Room
Here’s an article that summarizes a recent presentation on energy trends conducted by Pulitzer prize-winning author and energy analyst Daniel Yergin. About a year ago, I saw Yergin present at the University of California at Santa Barbara, and I appreciate his breadth of knowledge on the subject. But then, as again here, he barely touches on the many environmental issues, and he doesn’t mention climate change at all. That’s an enormous elephant in the room.
Of course, let’s keep in mind that he’s a consultant to the industry, and his clients are primarily the big oil companies. How much can we suspect they really want to hear about global warming, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity, and the rest? I’m sure the consultants to the tobacco companies keep the discussion of lung cancer to an absolute minimum.
Craig,
I’m not sure this is a fair critique. Essentially, there is a report presented (energy market trends), and you are frustrated that they didn’t present a different report (environmental impacts).
There didn’t appear to be any hiding or hedging from the issue of global warming, only that the focus on global warming might lead to a greater emphasis on renewable and nuclear energy if there was a series of major climate-related disasters… but that’s about all one would really expect in a market trend analysis.
In other words, the elephant was mentioned here as a tangent… but the elephant was in a DIFFERENT room.
The rate of Climate change and changes in other forms of environmental pollution are certain to be the primary effects of energy trends, but they don’t (unfortunately) drive energy market trends to a great degree, and aren’t likely to except in the case of some spectacular change in sentiment.
Where I think that Yergen was wrong is in the question of “what will drive a change in sentiment concerning Climate Change?”, and as a result I think his estimate for the adoption of renewables is a little slow. He believes that yet another drought or storm might change people’s mind. I think that will be denied just as all of the other evidence of Climate Change has been denied. I believe it will take something stark, undeniable, and visual: The complete melt-off of the Arctic Ice Cap.
Both unfortunately and fortunately, I believe that will occur for a few days quite soon (possibly as early as Sept, 2017, certainly by Sept, 2025).