Can Solar Thermal Compete in the Pantheon of Renewable Energy “Flavors?”
I took a nice hike with a friend last weekend, during which we had lots of time to talk about the important issues of the day; we’re out there long enough that there is no reason to rush from one topic to the next. This was good news for our discussion from the various flavors of renewable energy and each of them is coming along.
My friend is an advocate of solar thermal (aka, concentrated solar power/CSP). My personal concern is that its levelized cost of energy cannot approach that of solar PV and wind, and that, therefore, it may be doomed to obscurity.
Not everyone sees it that way, however. Here’s good news from the people running the huge (377 MW) Ivanpah facility in Eastern California.
Craig,
LCOE for PV may in fact be a little more than LCOE for CSP. We need a lot more data than we have to make that call. It’s likely the mirror faces on the heliostats for Ivanpah’s power tower will last at least 20 years before having to be resurfaced – which will not be cheap. The axial control mechanisms for the heliostats will almost certainly last twice that… and other than routine maintenance the tower itself, the molten salt storage, the tubing, and the steam generator will all exceed 50 year lifespans.
Meanwhile, PV tends to degrade by ~0.5%/year, cumulative. There are generally wiring failures that begin leading to periods of significant loss of energy, and the inverter will go somewhere around 15 years out, which will lead to a large maintenance cost and a short blackout period.
The 5-year outlook shows a strong preference for PV… but the net LCOE is tricky. It depends on the amortization schedule for the loan, the discount placed on future earnings, etc…
I think I like CSP because there’s a sense of stately power to it… It’s an obelisk – an ancient symbol of power shining brightly, the tip visible for a hundred miles. It’s a testiment. We built something… It’s kind of the same feeling that I have about the Grand Coulee Dam, or the Empire State Building. The power tower CSP design serves as something that can be pointed to and spark imagination. PV, on the other hand, is just a bunch of black screens covering a rooftop or an array of black screen panels seemingly littering a landscape… And trough-style CSP is just a series of piping. While it’s possible that they will win out in the economic landscape, and therefore they will win… the poet in me roots for the towers.
I’m looking forward to seeing how Ivanpah performs over the next couple of years.
😉