Can Renewable Energy Scale Up To Power the Entire Planet?
A friend of mine just sent me the content below. As you amuse yourself with it, ponder the assertion: “It’s impossible for renewables to rise to the scale necessary to handle the world’s energy needs,” and think about how often you hear this from the fossil fuel and nuclear people. Then consider the notion of the “tipping point,” coupled with the fact that the cost of energy from solar and wind is falling like a rock.
On Second Thought, Maybe I was Wrong
1.) “The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous.” — Comment of Aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Haig, at tank demonstration, 1916
2.) “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878
3.) “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” – Western Union internal memo, 1876
4.) “Reagan doesn’t have that presidential look.” – United Artists executive after rejecting Reagan as lead in the 1964 film The Best Man
5.) “Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.” – Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830
6.) “The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.” — IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production, 1959
7.) “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
8.) “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” – Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883
9.) “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” – -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
10.) “When the Paris Exhibition [of 1878] closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it.” – Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson
11.) A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times, 1936
12.) “No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free.” – King William I of Prussia, on trains, 1864
13.) “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” – Albert Einstein, 1932
14.) “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” – -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston
15.) “If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.” – -W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954
16.) “No, it will make war impossible.” – -Hiram Maxim, inventor of the machine gun, in response to the question “Will this gun not make war more terrible?” from Havelock Ellis, an English scientist, 1893
17.) “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” – -Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio in 1921
18.) “There will never be a bigger plane built.” – – A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people
19.) “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” – Decca Recording Company on declining to sign the Beatles, 1962
20.) “How, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.” — Napoleon Bonaparte, when told of Robert Fulton’s steamboat, 1800s
21.) “Television won’t last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” – -Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946
22.) “I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.” — HG Wells, British novelist, in 1901
23.) “It’ll be gone by June.” – Variety Magazine on Rock n’ Roll, 1955
24.) “And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam” – -Newsweek, predicting popular holidays for the late 1960s.
25.) “Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.” – -Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison’s light bulb, 1880
So, normally, I would go along with all of those points making the argument for something that would help the average person to keep being able to have health care and lights and running water…. if that was all we wanted or aimed for… I’d not be so skeptical….
However, to think that we are going to GO AFTER all the lithium that it will take for all that battery storage… ripping up how many ecosystems to get it… displace people probably indigenous…. just in order for us to continue professional sports, NASCAR…. casinos… oh, and WAR…. and any other frivolous pursuits… and manufacturing of plastic crap or superfluous items… is to me…. morally wrong… RENEWABLES, WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING AS FAR AS EQUALITY GOES…. in this world if we have the attitude that we can continue with the nonsensical world we now have…
OH AND ALL THAT PROGRESS YOU LISTED ABOVE…. HAPPENED BEFORE WE HAD STRIPED THE EARTH OF MUCH OF HER NATURAL RESOURCES……LIKE COPPER, IRON ORE… AND YEA… FOSSIL FUELS…. YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT MAKING BILLIONS OF SETS OF RENEWABLES…. SO, THINK ABOUT THE RESOURCES NECESSARY FOR THAT…
Another thing…. not everyone who makes the argument that renewables cannot scale up is proposing we stay on fossil fuels… no… not by a long shot… some of us are stating reality…
By God Craig you’ve started making my case for me. That’s a very reveling list of past misperceptions.
No actually I think you’ve been making my case in many of your posts for some time now.
Here is one way to put the misperception I’ve been trying to overcome:
“How, sir, would you make a biomass fuels processor that can handle any amount of particle sizes from sawdust to large round bales and can be operated using combustion, gasification and pyrolysis at the operators choice? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.” — Said or thought by early everyone I’ve communicated with over the past two decades. The exceptions are those who come by my place and see it for themselves.
Scuse the typo:
That should have read:
Here is one way to put the misperception I’ve been trying to overcome:
“How, sir, would you make a biomass fuels processor that can handle any amount of particle sizes from sawdust to large round bales and can be operated using combustion, gasification and pyrolysis at the operators choice? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.” — Said or thought by nearly everyone I’ve communicated with over the past two decades. The exceptions are those who come by my place and see it for themselves.
Er, …. it seems extraordinary that Napoleon would have made such a comment. Robert Fulton actually named his first very first steam vessel “Bonaparte” in honour of Fulton having served under Napoleon.
In 1800 Napoleon commissioned Robert Fulton to construct experimental submarines. The “Nautilus”, became the first practical submarine in history.
Napoleon also had studied engineering and was a great patron of scientific advances in medicine, engineering and chemistry. He commissioned developments in steam, electricity and hydrogen propulsion.
In 1801, Robert Fulton gave Napoleon a demonstration of a model steamboat given him by the Scottish engineer Henry Bell. Napoleon, ordered his Minister of Marine to provide funds to build a full scale model to Fulton’s own design, in which he sailed along the River Seine in 1803.
Likewise the quote relating to King William I of Prussia in 1968 on learning of the invention of Railways, also seems bizarre. .
By 1868 the Berlin to Potsdam Line (or Stammbahn) had been operating for 30 years ! The Royal family owned a special train, on which William had been a passenger many times.
The distance between Berlin and Potsdam, is less than 22 miles. A distance William had covered many times on horseback as a young army officer, in less than than 2 hours.
So unless William was just being sarcastic….
Just like the often quoted belief that before Columbus everyone thought the world was flat, these sayings tend to gain a life of their own.
Likewise, popular propaganda tends to create “fact’s” that become so widespread and repeated, they no longer properly challenged.
I am sure many of these quotes are first reactions and some opinions may have been immediately changed with some consideration. The one by Albert Einstein is clearly an example.
There is also an often quoted theory that those who don’t study the past are doomed to repeat it. Therefore I suggest we consider the past in planning the future but refrain from dwelling in the past (as some like to do) and think about all those brave souls like Rachel Carson who could see what was needed and in spite of her opponents and naysayers set goals that were achievable.
“It is critical that we do everything we can to reduce our dependence on petroleum based fuels. Turning waste products into energy is good for the economy, local job creation and our environment.”
~ Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
“Basically, the technology for disposing of waste hasn’t caught up with the technology of producing it.”
~ Senator Al Gore 1992 ‘Earth In The Balance’ pg. 148
“The country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable
energy will lead the 21st century.”
~ President Barack Obama
“A fundamental rule in technology says that whatever can be done
will be done”
~ Andy Grove, Co-founder of Intel
I’ve developed a technology that can end coal combustion and retire most if not all fossil fuel refineries. With it we can close up BP gas stations and ban their presence on US soil. What if we write energy committees daily? Write Murkowski the Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Demand a comprehensive energy bill that denounces BP and requires all U.S. refiners to come to a hearing so the voice of the People will compel them to schedule the retirement, dismantling and clean up of all outdated fossil fuel infrastructure by 2030. The world is now known to be round, and when it comes to fossil fuel emissions what goes around comes around and around and around for a long time and when we are dead we will be dead a long time. I think it was Confucius who said that wasn’t it?
There are several interesting things about the list. It is all by what today we might call “experts,” “pundits,” or “authorities.” Somehow their authority over us is not diminished by their being “wrong.” John Stewart did a funny piece about 3 pundits who were infamously wrong about the Iraq war who were being held up once again as authorities.
Also many of the errors were the result of an assumption that was not necessarily part of the subject. To come back from the fascinating list to renewable energy there is an assumption that renewable energy is weak and little understanding of methods to concentrate such energy.
There is an assumption that renewable energy cannot easily be stored. Without storage wealth based upon renewable energy is more difficult to define.
Similar to many of the examples above there is an assumption that associated technologies (like energy storage) will remain constant while we consider that variable of renewable energy. We have much more difficulty with an analysis that involves more than one variable.
Perhaps to sum this up many of the “authorities” might have viewed their pronouncements as “common sense.” Perhaps it is a lesson that “common sense” does not excuse us from looking carefully to see what is changing, using apt analogies to aid our thinking, and carefully considering what we say.
Hindsight’s 20/20
FORESIGHT 2050
Thank Craig for once again for stimulating Good Thought on Serious Issues many with no clearly defined answers due to the many Variable involved in the world and human condition let alone the impacts of rising temperatures globally that could hijack the many plans of both Wise men and the Fools.
Wanda makes a Poignant Point for pointing out that we should strive to be careful as we develop more Renewable energy Lest we collectively repeat the mass disruption to the environment that we are trying to save or protect .Most hopefully Prudence will temper the market place so that we don’t repeat the same mishaps and short sighted actions that characterized a large part of the development of fossil fuels. Regrettably it still does ! The short sighted market driven and profit s first above all other competing interests have led to serious negative consequences for this place we inhabit That is seen Globally and Locally , you don’t have to look very hard either.
So our collective mission should be to advance more rapid deployment of renewable s to displace fossil fuels but in a manner that has a smaller foot print. We need to avoid repeating the past , this may not be possible due to the imperfections of markets that lack social balancing by good governmental policy that keep a brake on things and steering rudder to navigate around the upcoming cesspools that await us as we make the transitions needed.
Based on all the current information on this market , that is renewable energy , I say yes we can definitely close the gap to 50 % penetration level by 2050 very doable and this is a low forecast. The first 50 % is the easy part , its the second 50 % where the constraints and issues will get more challenging.
The latest Global forecast for 2040 states that Renewable energy will comprise over 60 % of the projected $12.2 Trillion dollars of global energy investment during the 25 yr time. Solar will see price reductions over 45 % from today and wind energy will go down 30 % more from today’s low prices.
Both are trending rapidly to becoming the least cost form of power globally. They already are in certain areas in the world and this also includes certain regions of the United States contrary to what the ” carbon heads ” would have you accept.
Last week the Bershire Hathaway Group and First Solar announced a record cheap price for 100 megs of utility solar in Nevada. $ .0387 cents per Kwhr This beat the last months record setter by City of Austin Tx. which was just at $ .04 cents per Kwhr. So the economic winds are at our collective backs, the Tipping Point is very near term in Sight ! In less than 10 years solar will be the number one installed NEW source of generation overtaking natural gas in the United states. That is what the smart money is investing in.
Again I tack back to Wanda out of respect to what she said , as we move to greater scale in Re-newable’s, her concerns for other resources and constraints to produce the volumes needed. She points out things that need to be included into the policy side of things or we may repeat the past mistakes.
Maybe she was saying that we surely don’t want to destroy the village in an effort to save it !
The issue is more than just a supply side challenge, we must incorporate more demand side technology that reduce our need for excessive volumes of energy . Balance !
Maybe that is why some of the quotes that turned out so wrong were wrong , they did not include any sense of Balance ! It is not a Either / Or World though many try to live that way. The Caveman ERA did not end because they ran out of Stones either !!
balancing all the many Variables involved in this Issue is the Human Challenge , Will we be Up to that Task ???? Only time will tell perhaps.
Best to All
Like just about everyone else here Wanda made valid points that actually make the case for the breakthrough technology my firm is offering an energy starved and environmentally down headed world.
For example she said; “However, to think that we are going to GO AFTER all the lithium that it will take for all that battery storage… ripping up how many ecosystems to get it.”
I wonder if anyone here is able to factor in that we don’t need all that much battery storage around the world if we use various forms of biomass and wastes as backup for intermittent sources of energy like solar and wind all around the world.
Here is a notice I’ve posted on Facebook and elsewhere.
COLLABORATORS, STRATEGIC ALLIANCES AND/OR INVESTMENT NEEDED FOR NOVEL NEW CONCEPT GLOBAL REPOWERING TECHNOLOGY. AAEC WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON REQUEST.
AAEC has invented, patented, tested and further developed a new concept low-carbon energy technology we’ve designed for serving as the core technology for far cleaner renewable energy production systems and energy efficiency improvements across the American landscape and around the world. AAEC’s novel new concept technology consists of a biomass, fossil fuel, and municipal waste combustion, gasification and pyrolysis conversion technology that can provide scalable heat and power requirements as well as both biofuel and biochar production. AAEC’s technology is for stand-alone use or as backup for alternative energy systems that depend on solar, wind or other intermittent sources of energy, and in this way it will help enable a doubling of the deployment of alternative energy projects around the world in coming decades.
AAEC developed this new concept technology to enable homeowners, businesses, towns, cities and even counties to convert nearly completely to cleaner renewable energy. AAEC is for those who understand that cleaner distributed alternative/renewable energy derived from coal, solar, wind, biomass and waste is a viable pathway to stall global warming and produce a much better future for all communities, for our descendants, and ultimately for all humanity. AAEC offers a viable way to move beyond merely talking about global warming and climate change to better controlling it. Fossil Fuels firms and utilities may oppose what AAEC offers and may want to maintain their monopoly positions as sole energy providers and pass on the costs in cleaning up their operations to their long suffering clients and customers, even if much better options are available that would benefit them as well.
AAEC management believes we will do better and be safer in the long run if we can deploy a practical way to power all societies on extraction of greenhouse gases that have already been emitted into earth’s atmosphere while also reducing ongoing greenhouse emissions and begin protecting our communities and electric power grids. We are claiming to be the inventor of one of the “tools” needed to enable humanity to overhaul the power delivery system, in the USA and elsewhere, and help get us out of the box fossil fuels and governmental inaction have humanity bound up in. We propose to do this through deployment of advanced alternative energy projects at community, city and county scale as good paying infrastructure producing jobs are needed. Therefore AAEC is seeking support from all that may care to support this project.
AAEC’s product lines can be manufactured in the US and in most any locality on any continent for the local or regional market. This we at AAEC believe will create licensing opportunities and many thousands of good paying long term jobs and these are among the things we are offering to an alternative energy hungry world. For further details please contact:
Les Blevins, President Advanced Alternative Energy Corp.
1207 N 1800 Rd., Lawrence, KS 66049
Phone 785-842-1943 – Email LBlevins@aaecorp.com
For more info see
http://aaecorp.com/ceo.html
http://advancedalternativeenergycorp.com
https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=45587557
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Advanced-Alternative-Energy/277213435730720
http://buildings.ideascale.com/a/dtd/SCALABLE-MIXED-WASTE-TO-ENERGY-CONVERSION-TECHNOLOGY/84117-33602