Being Realistic About Renewable Energy

In response to my post Why Venture Capital Isn’t Embracing CleanTech, MarcoPolo makes a lengthy and deeply thoughtful comment, which I excerpt here:

….(You are) a little blind to the harsher side of reality. You tend to see the world as it should be, and you hope it will be, not as it is, and probably will be…..

….Venture capitalists (merchant/investment bankers) should avoid passion, morality, ideology or emotion. That’s for philanthropists and entrepreneurs…..

….Both “climate change” and “global warming” are beginning to lose adherents, as taxpayers become aware of the huge losses incurred…..

….Too many VC’s have lost money in “clean tech.” In general, although the public says it loves clean tech, they don’t really care, and certainly not enough to pay a premium for clean tech…..

….A Hillary Clinton administration will have to face the problem of shrinking government revenues, and increased demand for government services. She knows that only cash flow from the oil-gas industry, keeps the U.S. afloat. U.S. prosperity rides on an energy resurgence. Hillary Clinton is first and foremost  a politician.  Sharks don’t commit suicide.

I agree with a lot of this, and your insights into U.S. politics are astute.  In particular, politicians—at least victorious one—are smart enough to say and do things that protect them from attack, and that means refraining from taking on a pro-environmental agenda.  We do have some people who care about this stuff, but they’re going to lose.  How Bernie Sanders (also attacking the billionaire class) has gotten this far astounds me.   And despite repeatedly saying she isn’t running for president, Elizabeth Warren (pictured above–a complete liberal) has the support of 20%; that’s considerable. But again, you’re right; neither one will win.

The only three things I have going for me are:

1) The costs of all these environmental goodies, e.g., renewable energy, continues to plummet, meaning that fossil fuels are in the process of taking a hike due to pure market economics.

2) You are incorrect about the public perception of environmental issues / climate change—even here in the U.S., and most certainly in Europe.  Linked above is a study on the subject, which includes this little gem: Driving public opinion data in the long-run is climate change itself. Since 1991, temperatures across the U.S. have risen on average between 1 degree and 1.5 degree Fahrenheit, slightly less so in the Southeast, according to the latest National Climate Assessment.

3) Enthusiasm sometimes bridges the gap between fantasy and reality. I.e., sometimes our world makes good things happen just because enough people believe a certain way.  As I wrote here:

Hollywood is littered with screenplays that project the world of the future, most of which are deeply dystopian, normally visions of a post-apocalyptic period where what’s left of humankind is locked in some sort of tooth-and-nail struggle for precious resources.  I understand this, given that a world of abundance and compassion doesn’t make for excellent theater.  Yet we need to understand that, a few wingnuts notwithstanding, our civilization is making real progress away from the cruelty and ignorance of the past.  In only 800 years, we’ve produced the Magna Carta (that acknowledged human rights), the Enlightenment (that replaced superstition with science), the U.S. Constitution, the end of legal slavery, women’s suffrage, the Civil Rights Act, and now, apparently, the beginnings of a huge reformation in the Catholic Church. 140 countries have abolished the death penalty. It really hasn’t been a bad 800 years, all things considered.

And another huge step is about to be taken, if the observations I make in “Bullish on Renewable Energy” about clean and abundant energy are accurate, and if all (or any, really) of my “Fourteen Reasons” take full effect.  Imagine a world that does not fight over oil, and uses new-found sources of energy to provide adequate sanitation, drinking water, food, and education to all its people.  We’re actually fairly close, and the effects will be profound, to say the least.