What the U.S. Can Learn from the Brexit Vote and its Aftermath
I’ve used quite a few images depicting love over these seven years, and here’s one more, this one from Reuters. The caption: Two activists with the EU flag and Union Jack painted on their faces kiss in front of Brandenburg Gate to protest against the British exit from the European Union on June 19.
It’s important to note that the Brexit vote to leave the EU has been followed by a record number of Google searches in the U.K., of which by far the most common: “What Is the EU?” As in the U.S., voters, ignorant and angry, get themselves into a snit about immigration, and forget that, in their fear and hate, they could be bringing in something (or in our case “someone”) that has a horrific impact on financial markets, as well as numerous other issues that have hugely negative effects on their quality of life.
Can we be sure that many people in the UK are actually searching to see what the EU is? It’s hard to believe that people in the UK could be unaware of that, especially people who have the ability to use the Internet.
My impression is that people in other countries tend to be better informed than Americans.
I have no way of validating that, but I got it from a solid source.
It will take some time to figure out what is really going to happen over the Brexit Referendum.
1. The majority in favour of Brexit was 52% to 48% with a substantial majority of Scots in every area of Scotland voting to remain. Northern Ireland likewise had a remain majority, though not as large. As a result, Scotland is now demanding a second referendum on independence from the UK so as not to be dragged out of the EU against the clear and decisively stated will of the people to remain – with talk of Northern Ireland seeking to join Scotland in remaining in the EU whilst England and Wales leave.
2. Constitutional lawyers are reminding us that under British law, a referendum is only advisory, and that only Parliament has authority to change the law. It will take the passing of a Parliamentary bill through both houses before Britain can lawfully declare that it is leaving. Likewise under EU law, a nation may only leave the EU under article 50 if it follows due process under its own constitution.
3. Of the current members of the House of Commons, there was a 300 majority in favour of remain. Whilst I do not see them totally disregarding the electoral majority, it will be very difficult to get the bill through both houses without firstly deciding what kind of exit – full partition, or leave the EU whilst remaining in the European Economic Area. If the latter – why leave the EU as all that gets us is the same financial cost as before, retention of free movement of people (Removal of which was a major selling point of the Brexit campaign), and no seat at the table. In addition if it becomes clear that no favourable near term trade deal can be had with the EU outside the EEA, I could see Parliament throwing out the bill, and calling either a second referendum or a general election or both – as per Michael Heseltine (former deputy Prime Minister’s comments this morning). Leading to the referendum decision being set aside.
4. Already a number of lies of the Brexit campaign are being exposed. $2 trillion was wiped off the value of global stocks in the 24 hours after the result was announced, the GBP fell 10% against the USD, and 7% against the Euro, banking shares fell 30%, and a few days later, one ratings agency has already cut the UK’s credit rating whilst others are speaking of a negative outlook. So much for better off out – certainly in the short term.
In other words, it is by no means certain that the UK will leave the EU, what a Brexit will look like, or even if there will continue to be a UK.
According to what I read, a significant number of voters who voted for Brexit did not expect that position to win and did not want it to win. They voted for it only to reduce the margin so that parliament would be aware that many people were unhappy with the EU. I have no way to evaluate that and as an American I see it is the sole responsibility of the UK to decide what to do. Even so, it would be sad to see the EU disintegrate.
In any case, Parliament is in a difficult position. They will be criticized regardless of which position they take. Perhaps it would be reasonable to have another referendum on the matter.
Hi Frank,
“They voted for it only to reduce the margin so that parliament would be aware that many people were unhappy with the EU”
Interesting theory, but such theories are often promulgated by the losing side in any close electoral contest.
Marcopolo,
That was according to what I read but obviously I have no way to know for certain. However, it could be true. There have been times when I’ve hoped that an election would be very close so that the winner wouldn’t think that he had high approval and could ignore those who did not vote for him. The same principal would apply to referenda.
It’s up to the British to decide what to do next. It does seem reasonable for David Cameron to resign under the circumstances and let the next PM deal with it. If enough members of the EU express dissatisfaction with the EU, perhaps the EU would act in such a way as to reduce the dissatisfaction in which case the UK might decide to stay in. Who knows?
The DOW seems to be recovering from the shock so perhaps the impact will be less negative than many expected.
Frank,
Thank you for your reply.
Yes, I agree, it’s a fact of political life that voter wanting to just “send a message” can miscalculate causing a party to lose office.
The truculent attitude of the EU and the hatred by some representative toward the British hasn’t been helped by the obnoxious rants of Nicholas Farage.
It’s further proof that the UK was always the odd man out, and always regarded with a certain jealousy and rivalry.
Britain’s decision to retain the pound and reject the Euro was deeply resented by EU bureaucrats.
The “Four Freedoms” :
1) The free movement of goods.
2) The free movement of services and freedom of establishment.
3) The free movement of persons (and citizenship), including free movement of workers.
4) The free movement of capital.
Was originally not intended as a means to create a United states of Europe, but simply reduce red tape and allow a ‘customs union’.
Brussels has used this a means of reducing national identity, and controlling the choices of citizens of citizens of different nations.
Had the “Remain” campaign asked the question ? Do you want to be a citizens of a USE, the vote against,( even in Scotland) would be much higher. This is true for most citizens in EU countries.
Actually, it’s a good question to ask Gary.
Gary, would you like to be a citizen of a United States of Europe ?
Gary,
It’s evident that you were a “remain” supporter, and I can understand your reasoning.
Like you, I too hail from the Home Counties, but I voted for ” Brexit”. I did so with a heavy heart as I am aware of the benefits and advantages of EU membership. I also admired David Cameron’s brave and principled stand.
The idea of a referendum on such a contentious and complex issue in my opinion was an error of judgement. The correct way to decide such an issue is in the House of Commons by a political party that included such a proposal in it’s electoral manifesto.
I disagree with your claim that Brexit campaign “lies” are being exposed. Obviously after such a tumultuous event, there will be some fall out among speculative markets.
But how are you personally worse off ? If you own banking shares etc, you don’t need to sell, just wait and share values will quickly return once the excitement dies down.
So what if the GBP has fallen against the USD, that’s hardly unexpected or unprecedented ! Bad news if you’re traveling abroad this week, but good news for British exporters.
Scottish nationalists may huff and puff, replay Braveheart for the umpteenth time, but once the dust settles they may find that the Scottish conservatives have gained even more support. Realization will quickly dawn that running away from Westminster, only to be ruled from Brussels as a powerless and insignificant member of the EU, is less attractive in the cold light of reality.
(It should also be remembered that 40% of Scots voted to leave the EU).
It sad to see some in the ‘Remain’ camp trying desperately to portraying all ‘leave’ supporters as racist and xenophobic. Unfortunately, this attitude isn’t helped by media concentration on the opinions of UKIP leader, the odious Nicholas Farage.
In general, Britain is one of the world’s most tolerant and accepting nations of immigrants.
The real issue, and the most deeply felt by Brexit voters, is fear of the erosion of British identity, British traditions, values and British independence.
British culture, legal system and governance have evolved quite differently from the rest of Europe. (We are the only nation without a formal Constitution). British legal and government institutions are not compatible with the rest of Europe. The euro-centric and ill-conceived policies of the opportunistic Blair Labour government created a more divisive Britain giving rise to dreams of devolution,tribal opportunism, etc.
The majority of those voting for Brexit have long resented a self-appointed elite, who have built careers sniggering and belittling British culture while adopting a cringing adoration of all things European.
Brexit voters were never opposed to the original concept of the EEC, but unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in the EU increasingly insisted on transforming the old EEC into a United States of Europe, with EU power overwhelming member states national governments.
I’m the first to agree that many of these fears are more theoretical than practical, but the EU’s arrogant refusal to accede to David Cameron’s very modest and reasonable requests for reform of the terms and conditions of Britain’s EU membership, will ultimately be more harmful to the EU than Great Britain.
Brexit could provide a whole new opportunity for Britain to once again embrace trade opportunists with it’s long neglected Commonwealth. Closer trade with Australia and NZ would give Britain better access to Asian markets, while Canada is a gateway to the US.
When all the arrogance settles, EU members must consider the future of the EU. The potential departure of the UK could start an avalanche of defections. The issues of EU corruption, bureaucratic waste and lack of accountability remain a source of deep resentment among member states. The EU should address the issue of reform before it’s too late.
I hope that the people of these ‘blesse’d isles’ , from the most ancient inhabitants, to the newest British citizen can pause for moment and ponder the unique and special heritage the nation of Britain enjoys.
We should be celebrating the bonds that bind Britain from Land’s End to John o’ Groats, from Londonderry to London, we should concentrate on rebuilding our shared heritage and common investment in the small isles that have had such an impact on the world.
Not Scottish, Irish, English, Welsh, or EU, but citizens of Britain ! Maybe Britain’s of Scottish, Irish, English or Welsh heritage but all united in a common kingdom.
It will take hard work, and astute leadership to once again unite our peoples, but isn’t that better than endless dissension and constant bickering?
That’s the message Britain should be taking to the US and the rest of the world.