Tipping Points in Climate Change
A term popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in his 2000 best seller, a tipping point is a moment at which linear, predictable change of a certain phenomenon achieves critical mass and becomes runaway exponential change. Cell phone ownership and the adoption of the Internet are commonly presented examples.
But not all tipping points are social phenomena; some are pure physics, e.g., climate change. Does such a juncture lay in wait for us with respect to climate change?
Almost assuredly; there is no reason to believe that the causes of global warming and the feedback loops associated with each are going to remain at a steady clip. The most commonly discussed topics in this arena are the feedback loops of loss in albedo (the portion of the sun’s incident radiant energy that the Earth reflects back into space) and the melting of tundra that has sequestered vast amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from hundreds of millions of years.
This is the type of stuff that is modelled in software so it can be analyzed in a laboratory setting, though the scientists involved would be the first to admit that some of the cause-effect relations are not fully understood at this point.
Here is an article that discusses thermohaline currents that seem to be changing quickly, and could, at some point, reverse in direction, profoundly altering Earth’s climate–even on top of the global warming associated with the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.
If this doesn’t scare you, you’re made of stone.
At my age, I doubt that I’ll be around when the effects of global warming result in insurrections, armed conflicts, and intolerable conditions followed by a decline in population. However, as a responsible citizen of the U.S. and the world, I think that all of us who are aware of the situation should make an effort to do something about it.
Most likely it is way too late to prevent serious damage. At this point, the most we can do is mitigate the damage to some extent and find ways to live with it. I think that we could live with it and minimize the damage to civilization if there were widespread understanding of what has to be done.
Among the things which will greatly increase demand for energy will be the need to cope with global warming and its effects. Obviously way more air conditioning will be essential to prevent deaths from heat stroke. Droughts will almost certainly require getting much of our fresh water by sea water desalination which is very energy intensive. Unless we can rapidly generate huge additional amounts of CO2-free energy, the burning of fossil fuels will greatly increase thereby exacerbating global warming problems.
The country which is most often considered the premier example of commitment to CO2-free energy is Germany. Those who thus cite Germany rarely mention that, in phasing out nuclear power, Germany has actually increased CO2 emissions by building more coal burning power plants and burning more coal. A heavy dose of realism is require else there is no chance of surviving the climate challenges which lie ahead.
Hi Frank,
Yes, I’m afraid Germany has set out to be the leader in Renewable energy and paid a heavy price.
Despite all the Euro upsets the German economy has remained strong enough to withstand the pressures of increasing energy costs and a slow lessening of industrial competitiveness.
The German government has been able to maintain the illusion of successfully replacing nuclear generation by a complicated and diversified system of subsidies some able to project accountability for loss for decades.
Germany has also been able to covertly purchase nuclear power from the Czech Republic and France. It covers these purchases by claiming it exports surplus power to the Czechs and French, but the arrangements are almost impossible to decipher, let alone analyze.
What’s evident, is the value of these exports and imports is completely dependent on a complicated arrangements of government subsidies. The scheme is simply a complicated scam.
Germany has been forced to reopen old coal fired power stations and increase imports of gas from Eastern Europe.
There is little hope of any transparency while the concept of “Energiewende” remains popular with the German electorate.
Investment in the German energy sector is now completely dependent on Government guarantees to cover any losses. This situation can’t continue for much longer as the German economy is forced to absorb increasingly high costs for energy.
While anti-nuclear support remains strong in Europe, it would appear to be on the wane. Support remains very vociferous and advocates are as many as ever, but it’s growing apparent ordinary voter are becoming increasingly doubtful.
In 2011 , in the wake of Fukushima, the Swiss parliament voted to phase out nuclear power. In the three referendums held since then, the ordinary people voted resoundingly (over two thirds)to retain nuclear power.
The Swiss parliament is awaiting next year’s independent report into energy generation. The ramifications of this report will be felt far beyond Switzerland. Judging by the submissions made to the independent panel of inquiry, The government assessments of renewable generation has been unreliable and overly optimistic.
Applications for two new nuclear plants, were rejected by Parliament, despite being endorsed by a majority of the electorate.
In this climate and with a significant number of leading GW/Climate Change scientists beginning to support advanced nuclear technology, it would appear that anti-nuclear technology advocates are becoming yesterdays news.
Nice Post Frank and more people must make the decision to be Better Citizens and think of othrs by improving our practices and accepting change before its too dismal and we are forced to as you explained.
Yeah the A / C load will grow and the de sal of water is a real challenge.
I see more Geo thermal Hvac coming into play , sales are up Nationally. If building standards were in place a shift to Geo Thermal would have major positive impacts on the GRID and the burning of fuel for power etc.
GEO thermal tends to reduce energy load by 500 to 650 watts per ton. It has a better degradation decline curve than air to air hvac so in Hot weather it uses less energy to run and delivers more comfortable cooling. Air to Air loses capacity and draws more power!
So that is one viable Option that is Off the Shelf. Ready NOW. Budget strapped Texas Schools have over 300 schools with geo therrmal systems and average savings are in 45 % to 55 % range , less maintenance also. Generate hot water so less fossil fuel is burned.
The spec building market is dirty and fraught with inefficiency that we get locked into. These practices require Guidance from Public Policy makers as the market is ineffective in correcting for it’s Baked in failures and keeps perpetuating energy losses despite the hard truths that Frank mentioned.
Silent,
The reason that geothermal heating and cooling systems are not more common is that the ground coils are very expensive. For homes, they generally require digging up the entire yard. There are vertically installed ground coils which are less messy to instal, but I don’t know what the relative costs or efficiencies are. It may be that ways will be found to reduce the cost of the ground coils.
Air source heat pumps have become more common, but except in mild climates, I’d expect them to cost considerably more to operate than systems with ground coils.
I wonder whether district heating and cooling systems would be a reasonable way to go. There is a practical limit to the distance over which chilled or heated water could be distributed. There is nothing new about it; it has been used for well over half a century in New York City.
Frank
yes the initial cost for loop fields is a hurdle – for single family homes in a tract home division – district heating and cooling loop s can be sized to gain economies of scale for this application.
The developer could avoid gas lines and their cost.
Utilties could build these and rate base them and take tax credits and sell BTU’s along with power , would improve their load factor too.
Utilities need a new revenue stream. This is one way.
The home builder / cheap low ball contractor is taken out of the loop , society can no longer afford the luxury of their high social costs business model where price and inefficiency rule and contribute to global warming! .
Let the utility do what they do best design and distribute bulk BTU’s and let the home builder focus on the gingerbread etc.
Reduces fossil fuel big time CO2 etc. Better comfort if home envelope is good. ( that builder variable again) But the housing market is adopting sprayed foam insulation now so the envelope is getting real good and matches up w geo thermal heat pumps. so do able market wise. The pink panther insulation is endangered !!
East Coast, Mid Atlantic and some of Mid West all positive growth markets for this package.
District heating on college campuses and education sites , and multi story Apts / condos all make good applications.
The rebuilt Cornell Univ in NY is using geo thermal w 400 ft wells and loops and then discharging into the East river . Ball State and Penn State and others .
Cooling and heating efficiency of GEO Thermal blows air to air or gas condensing units away as I posted earlier. The Life cycle savings excellent.
In the Great Plains the soil is very conducive to loop fields and this by passes propane. Some farmers have small fish ponds that are wonderful heat sinks and condensers. Geo Thermal broke into the Plains market in late 1980’s as Elec cooperatives promote it as demand side management.
In High rises or buildings with high occupancy , water source heat pumps can tie into the municipal sewer lines to use them for condensing and heat exchange. Replacing the cooling tower with its water loses, energy and chemical costs. Good efficiency.
Vancouver BC is installing a downtown district loop and turning off fossil fuels. It is tied into the municipal sewer system also.
Imagination is the order of the day ! We have more options than we think, many more than the entrenched market failures have limited us Histroically if we are serious about things !
Silent,
Here is a website where I found a discussion of air source vs geothermal / ground source:
http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/qa-spotlight/air-source-or-ground-source-heat-pump
Considering the cost of ground source, it seems that, at least in many situations, air source makes more sense. Unfortunately, the rate of return or time value of money seems never to be discussed even though it is very important. For example, if a home is being built and will have a mortgage, the homeowner really needs to know whether he should spend more $$ for a ground source system or have a smaller mortgage yet he is not provided with information adequate to make the best decision.
Granted that most people do not know what internal rate of return is, but some people do know. That is one of the things which should be taught in high school home economics courses because of its importance.
Frank that is a good website and as it says the trade offs are very situational.
It gives Mini splits systems a good review and I forgot to mention them . Good options. All the duct losses are avoided is their shine. Also they can go down to 5 degrees out side air temp so big improvements there.
I remember the AC contractors trying to keep them off the market in late 1980’s it was wild as they wanted to do their duct systems etc.
Out West where heating need is lower perhaps th emini split is the path.
But in the areas I mentioned the ground source make real good options. Also they reduce the peak loading problem that air to air systems create on the utility grid. This means lower efficeint Peakers have to run more to meet summer Peaks. this costs fuel and more green house gasses.
Ground source reduce these peaks as they run more in a flat line based on studies.
Also the KW draw per ton is less even as temperatures rise above 95 to 100 degrees many studies done on this.
Basically a EER of 16 rated air to air unit drops down to 11.5 effective EER at 100 – 105 degrees plus cooling capacity goes down. They derate just like a turbine generator does.
Ground source lose some but not as much so this is very inside the box revelations that most people talking about these systems never address. I have the charts but they are all in power points and I cant get them into this site we post on.
If you are interested google Paul Boney in California he is a long standing authority in these areas. Has pretty fact filled educational charts . Inside the box information .
Think system of systems like all the examples I gave in prior post to address Climate Change reduce fossil fuels.
One last point the SW Elec utilities are all seeing more and more Air to air refrigeration thereby driving peak demand up but mostly needle peaks so more expensive fossil fuel plants are needed and utilization factors are low so we PAY more , PNM, El Paso Elec and Tucson Elec.,have this problem big time. Phoenix is hotter so the load is greater over all.
Load factors are around 50 % weak weak performance .
Some sort of heat pumps in lieu of gas heaters would resolve this but change is hard and heating needs are not that great in Tucson or El Paso. In your home of Albq there is more heating load. In floor radiant w boiler is a cool idea there.
Silent,
I’ve wondered why mini split A / C / heat pump systems were the systems of choice in most of the world while they were practically unknown here in the U.S. I lived in Fiji from 1994 to 2004 and had a mini split A / C in my master bedroom. It was practically the ONLY kind of A / C used in Fiji, Australia, and New Zealand. If one watches on TV the news from various parts of the world, one can see the condensing units for mini split A / C system hung on the outside of buildings. The first time I ever saw one was in 1988; that was in Fiji. One of the reasons that I cancelled my subscription to Consumer Reports is that they tested only window mounted or through the wall A / Cs; they completely ignored mini split systems.
I’d be interested in the attempts to keep mini split systems off of the market. Perhaps you could cover that.
I prefer COP (coefficient of performance) to EER because it is easier to understand. EER is a silly hybrid measurement; it is basically a ratio of BTUs to watts whereas COP uses the same units for input and out put. For example, if the COP is perhaps 3.2, one can see that for every unit of energy input, it moves 3.2 units of energy; that gives a better feel for the actual efficiency.
Also, years of payback is not a good way to evaluate an investment in energy systems. The proper way would be return on investment. That would make it possible to compare the investment with alternatives, such as paying back a student loan more quickly, investing in stocks and bonds, etc. etc. But with payback, it is not possible to make such comparisons.
With my radiant floor heating system, it would be possible to convert to solar heat. Whether it would make economic sense I don’t know. Doing that would require some sort of storage, perhaps a large insulated tank which would receive its heat from solar collectors. Then, there would have to be a very small tank which would receive its heat from the large tank as needed to maintain a suitable water temperature based on outside air temperature. It would be a bit complicated, but could be made to work well. Probably I won’t actually do it. However, it would make more sense than a PV system at least partly because solar collectors for heat generally have efficiencies exceeding 50 % whereas PV systems rarely have an efficiency exceeding 16%.
Hi Frank,
“I’ve wondered why mini split A / C / heat pump systems were the systems of choice in most of the world while they were practically unknown here in the U.S”
The answer to your question lies in the history of air-conditioning manufacture.
In the early part of the twentieth century, only the US was wealthy enough and had such a variety of climate that mass produced appliances such as domestic air-conditioning could find a market.
The first home air-conditioning became available in the nineteen twenties, were splits systems, but the units were heavy, expensive and complicated.
In 1931 H.H. Schultz and J.Q. Sherman developed the first ‘package’ unit placed on a window ledge or in a wall. This unit was not only cheaper, but could also ventilate and act as a fan only, while using the fairly low power of US outlets.
These units were still relatively expensive and introduced during the height of the great depression.
By 1947 an engineer named Henry Galson developed a compact, inexpensive, version of the window air conditioner and licensed the rights to several manufactures.
The package air-conditioner became a huge seller in the US as it could be purchased from an appliance store and installed by any handyman.
The development of pre-charged flexible refrigerant lines in the the nineteen seventies allowed small split system air-conditioning units become economically feasible.
Developments in building design lessened ventilation requirements and since split-systems were quieter, less intrusive, more versatile and often easier to install they began to take over from the older package units.
With mass manufacture Japanese manufactures were able to narrow the price difference and in newly emerging affluent markets outside the US, split-systems became popular, especially in markets which require a qualified tradesman to install all air conditioning units.
Frank
Good Morning enjoyed your report on the Foreign deployment of Mini split systems long before they hit the US.
That is why I get Sarcastic on so called American Exceptionalism! BS.
Here is a Tale from the Front lines of the Environmental Movement and Turf Battles
In the late 1980’s and till 1991 I marketed a refrigeration retrofit product in 10 states and built distribution thru Distributors and Engineering oriented HVAC co’s. The lower end of the HVAC co. all hated the new regulations concerning the changing of Freon types and majority were red necks for the most part and thought global warming to be a Elitist Hoax! etc., etc.
Lies die hard as many still do , perhaps they are just confused or suffer from Arrested Development ??
They used to brag about how they used to just purge the systems freon into the air and laugh about it. Lots of Bubba Boys and goobers out there. I had to watch them do this and laugh with their goofy bubba boy laughs and tobacco spits in between!
Once the price for Freon went up then the better co’s bought refrigerant recyclers equipment and change and transformation took place but for around 6 years a tug of war was on.
some of the older rednecks were mad as they missed purging into the SKy! It was their fit of rage against Elitists in their feeble minds. When companies began to manage the refrigerant p[roperly the abuse stopped. Due to cost.
Mini splits came to the shores and the first ones were Foreign so the hvac contractors resisted selling Jap stuff etc. They were going to stay with American made brands, Carrier, Trane, Lennox etc etc.
The mini split marketers worked hard to get Doctors, Architects , Office space folks to try the mini splits out and that is how they gained footholds. They showed people all the dust in the ducts and mites etc. soon people wanted them for health reasons. So they cracked the Nut!
Then some of the American Brands started making them and acceptance began.
Utility demand charges rose and the mini split economics began to make a compelling case and more of the market opened up. This accelerated through the 2000’s and now they Are mainstreamed.
In Las Cruces, NM good home builders are getting HERS ratings of 35 with great foam insulation and Mini splits etc. ( typical HERS were close to 80 to 100 for typical homes in the 1990’s and early 2000’s) Average is around 55 or so we have a long way to go.
Mini Splits are mainstreaming more and more in multiple applications and the zonal efficiency benefit is a great tool to reduce coming utility costs that only will go Up !
As usual Foreign Nations were driven to better efficiency faster than America but we are On Track now. Crank up the Speed of Change …Forward !
So Frank the resistance to MIni Splits was cultural in America also economics. The contractors wanted to make money off making and installing Ducts . So this was a source of market bias .
As the saying goes One man’s Gain is another man’s Pain!
Frank I like discussing with you on many levels but I would differ on the COP versus EER . EER related to watts which equals Kwhr which get to cost comparisons and savings potential and people want a Bottom Line $$$.
COP is a wonderful concept and I get it and appreciate it. However I see it as big picture and people want a bottom line number. My take.
As far as you keep going back to Rate of Return ,and its more important than payback. I agree.
And the fact of the matter is Energy Efficiency and more recently solar dg units and utility scale have Rates of Return that beat Wall St. returns more and more. I see solar systems here in town that are getting 12.5 % Rate of Return with NO Utility Inflation factored in based on 2.9 % solar loans.
Solar is selling for $3.00 per watt turn key 4 kw will net to $ 9,000 after 30 % Fed tax credit. LCOE of the Kwhr is less than Grid costs now!
Its why the utilities are trying to stop Solar with repressive customer charges and demand charges etc.
We come a Long Long Way Baby ! But the Bigger Battles are Looming ahead5
I am looking at putting a Mini split Heat Pump in my home office and kitchen to boost the 5 ton central unit I have for the main part of home. The EER or SEER or COP are high now around EER of 20 and cycling a 2 ton unit with 3 or 4 Evaporators gives you Zonal ( affordable)Temperature control and Zonal Efficiency.
In large buildings now the hvac industry is going to VRF units Variable Refrigerant Flow w zonal benefits and multi stage compressors , once again lowering Demand KW and improving KWHR performance another reason demand for power is not growing like before. They come in heat pump mode also. PNM is trying to promote those systems.
They are tricky and if installed right then good other wise major issues just Like anything else.
In the case of Mini splits Progress is A Comfortable Disease !
take care Frank
My new house, which I designed with the help of a house designer and which was finished in 2009, has two central A / C units – one for upstairs and one for downstairs. I don’t remember why I decided on two central units instead of a mini split system. The only problem I have with the two central systems is that there is no zoning. In theory, central systems can be zoned but from reading the material about how it is done I suspect that it is not entirely satisfactory. It is only fairly recently that variable speed compressors became available for central systems.
here you go Frank and anyone else that may be following our discussion great presentation on GSHP and real energy Efficiency and Net Zero concepts
https://www.californiageo.org/education/getting-to-true-zero-net-energy-without-fossil-fuels-sjcc/
Enjoy to Progress in the Right Direction
Good Morning Frank
Well at least you have the beginning of zonal – when you run one and leave the other off.
Zonal can be done no big deal and the better units can be configured with automated duct registers than can be opened or closed depending on load and user wants. This helps reach the benefits of . Zonal systems.
2 speed scroll compressors and other designs with zoned ducts and registers properly sized to meet loads and not over sized which many lower end contractors do as they make money on tonnage installed, along w right T stat controls can make a good difference with both Temp control and more efficient operating run times so conservation or bill control can be reached.
I think more new homes are going to get Mini split systems going forward so the duct costs and related health issues are avoided. The mini splits look better and are quiet enough now that consumer acceptance is growing.
did you check out the link I shared ? Some interesting and telling performance curves on AC units.
Silent,
Actually, I’ve done considerable research on A / C system, zoning, etc.
The current zoning systems do not use a variable speed blower and compressor as they should if they are to work properly. Instead, there is a bypass duct which runs air directly from the discharge side of the air handler to the intake side to prevent excessive air flow through registers when some of them are closed. That would result in rapid cycling of the compressor; not good. What they should do is use a blower with infinitely variable speed and adjust the speed according to how many registers are open; the speed of the compressor should also be adjusted accordingly to avoid rapid cycling. So what is available currently simply would not work very well in my opinion.
When a house is already built, installing dampers in the ducts would not be an easy thing to do for which reason it is rarely done.
There is another type of A / C system which is used in Europe but practically unheard of here in the U.S. Instead of circulating air, which requires considerable power, they have a water chiller and circulate chilled water through tubes in the ceiling. It requires considerably less power to circulate water than to circulate air. The chilled ceiling cools the room. Moreover, because the ceiling is chilled, it re-rediates less heat to the occupants enabling them to be comfortable at a somewhat higher temperature. The somewhat higher temperature results in less heat gain. Also, because the temperature difference between the hot and cold sides of the refrigeration system is less, its coefficient of performance is higher. The result is a considerable reduction in power requirements.
Obviously the ceiling should not be chilled below the dew point. In dry climates like this one, that USUALLY is not a problem. However, because the system can handle only sensible heat and not latent heat, there has to be separate provision to deal with the latent heat when the humidity would otherwise cause condensation on the ceiling. That can be done with a ducted dehumidification system. Obviously separating sensible heat removal from latent heat removal increases costs, but probably that could be justified by the improved comfort and energy efficiency.
Regarding mini split systems, they still cost more than ducted systems according to what I last read about them. As for duct issues and health, it looks as though that problem has been significantly exaggerated by companies in the duct cleaning business.
I do not like drafts and most systems do not eliminate drafts. The chilled ceiling system would eliminate drafts, but it is not yet well known here in the U.S. Based on my experience, I think that there is another way to eliminate drafts and get very even cooling. Each chilled air register could be located in the very center of the ceiling. Suspended below each would be a ceiling fan blowing upward at a much reduced speed, i.e., a speed below the normal low speed. That would quickly mix room air with the chilled air; the mixed air would then be much closer to room temperature. Also, the resulting mixed air would move along the ceiling and down the walls, away from room occupants, so they would be less likely to notice the air motion.
Operating a ceiling fan at less than low speed is easy. These fans generally have a 3-speed switch built into them, controlled by a chain. There are 3-speed wall switches available. Having both switches on “low” results in a very low speed. If that’s too slow, one switch can be on “medium” and the other switch on “low”; I know from experience that that works.