A Few Good Reasons to Short Oil Companies’ Stock
It certainly will be interesting to see how the stock market responds to the situation in which the oil companies will soon find themselves. There are several aspects of this, none of them good for share-holders (though very good for the rest of us):
Stranded Assets. On their balance sheets, oil companies have enormous quantities of in-ground crude, listed as assets. Until recently, the presumption was that it’s just a matter of time before those assets were extracted, refined, and sold. Now, that’s no longer a sure bet. Our scientists tell us that if we burn more than about 20% of that ancient sunlight, our environment will suffer severely. What happens when GAAP rules force them to write down these assets?
Financial Risk. Energy companies today are selling PPAs based on solar and wind at fixed prices to a broad panorama of customers, including cities, as well as many of the world’s largest companies. Ask a natural gas company to do that, i.e., to fix a price for 20 years, and you’ll get laughed at. De-risking energy prices is a huge business advantage–one that will become even more pronounced as time goes on and fossil fuel prices become more volatile. Why this volatility? Increased costs of production, lessening demand and my personal favorite, an ever-decreasing appetite on the part of voters for wars in the Middle East.
Legal Exposure. As I’ve been saying for years, the oil companies are entering the position that Big Tobacco found itself enmeshed in during the last half of the 20th Century, i.e., becoming exposed to liability for vast amounts of damages. Here we have litigation that will come from all sorts of entities: individuals, corporations, local and state governments, and federal agencies as they seek to recoup losses from the broad damage associated with fossil fuels, including climate change, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity, lung disease, and God only knows what else.
From here, this looks like a real mess unfolding, a process that will be fascinating to watch.
That won’t happen. Change away from fossil fuel use will see a reduction in the initial extraction cycle not an abandonment of stored fuel. Every drop of stored fuel will be used eventually.
The moment we get really inexpensive energy from renewables or nuclear, oil will cease to have relevance. That day is coming (relatively) soon.
Lawrence, we can burn it all in a century and cause the biosphere to be like it was 3 million years ago during the Pliocene (with almost exact same land features and sun as today),
Or, we could use it for lubrication for a million years (because machinery in the future won’t need much lubricant, anyways.
humans will go extinct from the effects of an eocene-like hothouse climate prior to having extracted and combusted all the carbon under their feet.
Unfortunately the same logic won’t be able to be applied to global stranded Wind assets.
Yes, solar will be cheaper than wind because no moving parts. Same with batteries (of we could ever get the war effort towards their development underway).
If…
A Lawrence
well the China guys have built many farms with cheap in efficient turbines , jilting quality co like Vestas and using inferior domestic units !
So they may have a bunch of low producing wind farms .
We are subsidizing nukes now in US in mid life so e should not be throwing Stones!
But I learned many Moons ago not to throw the Baby out with the Bath Water !
there will be Stranded oil and gas assets in the ground. Question is when.
There will be one of two general causes for stranded poisonous dinosaur assets. One, our species will immediately begin a massive mobilization of finance and labor worldwide, to evolve the production and deployment of our existing energy technology to render such assets obsolete. Two, food and water scarcity, weather extremes, and disease and warfare, will render our civilization obsolete. This realization only sounds alarmist to those who haven’t yet realized it.
Time is short. Physics doesn’t negotiate. We are the product of 4 billion years of successful evolution. We now have a shrinking window within which can evolve in sustainable harmony with our native biosphere. Or, we can claw at each other’s throats over the dwindling scraps, until at last we join Homo erectus in the catalog of failed species. The collective choice is ours.
Beautifully put. Fortunately, the economics of clean energy are rapidly making fossil fuels obsolete, and, as I just commented elsewhere, that means they’ll be obsolete forever; we don’t need a supply that last 50,000 years, since no one will care a whit about fossil fuels for more than the next few decades. The issue, of course, is how much damage we will have done in the process. The answer? Nobody knows.
@ Cameron,
Where have you been ? I’ve really missed your stentorian doomsday prophesies !
The figure in sackcloth holding a sign saying “The End Is Nigh “, was a great stock figure in cartoons of my youth. Sadly in recent decades the character seems to have fallen into disuse.
I confess to enjoying a bit of old fashioned doomsday, alarmist sermonizing. It brightens up an otherwise serious subject.
How’s the view from under the bridge, oh anonymous one? Your predictable attempt at condescension and insult demonstrates the sun hasn’t yet made stone of your leathery hide. As I’ve illustrated repeatedly for you and for readers here, your habituation toward ad hominem, straw-men, false equivalencies and non-sequitur often renders a serious response an impossibility (as in this case) or a waste of time.
Oh, a troll! It took me a while to figure that one out…..
Hi Craig,
Coincidentally, Cameron’s fulminating is strangly appropriate since I am currently visiting New Zealand and been invited to visit the preserved film set at Matamata where the Lord of the Rings and the Hobbit film were made.
The Hobbit’s village has been completely preserved and the “Green Dragon Inn” is open for events or refreshments.
My daughter and I have been invited to attend a reunion for some of the team that assisted in containing and studying NZ’s worst maritime environmental disaster created by the wreck of the MV Rena.
In 2011 the 47,231 tonne MV Rena ran aground in the Bay of Plenty, near the Port of Tauranga. The MV Rena carried 1,368 containers including eight with hazardous materials.(including plastic beading, one container of which has yet to be recovered).
Luckily the MV Rena fuel tanks contained only 1,700 tonnes of bunker oil, along with 200 tonnes of diesel. As a result only some 350 tonnes of bunker fuel was released.
350 tonnes was still enough to cause massive environmental damage, and although the efforts of the NZ government and professional clean up crews was immediate and diligent, there’s only so much that can be achieved.
The disaster did provide an opportunity to study the contrast between the effects of bunker oil spillage, and marine diesel.
The environmental devastation wrought by the wreak of the MV Rena was bad, but imagine the effect of such a wreak occurring in the Great Barrier Reef or other marine parks.
Every day much larger ships carrying far more bunker oil sail through these marine parks. No one who has witnessed the devastation created by the totally unnecessary usage of bunker oil, (especially if they helped in the clean up) could fail to be effected by this folly.
Yet, I can’t help being dismayed and disappointed at the sheer bloody-mindedness of the NZ Greens and Labour Party who sought to make political capital from the disaster, not by joining the call to ban the use of bunker oil, but proposing a moratorium on deep sea drilling !
In Australia, the exceedingly active Green Party has no policy,(or even knowledge) of bunker oil pollution. When pressed the Green Party leader refused to be drawn except to say
“Incidents like this are a reminder that fossil fuels are dangerous and inefficient and we need to transition to a fully renewable energy economy with haste ”
Great ! The Senator refused to state how this would be accomplished in a maritime context, and remained vague about the immediate need to replace bunker oil with less toxic diesel. ( He did say he was opposed to diesel).
So yeah, I will happily join my fellow “trolls” who voluntarily donated time, money and heartbreaking work to mitigate the sad effects of environmental disaster.
@ Cameron Atwood
Oh dear, you were being serious ? I hadn’t realized….
These assets need to last not 50 years but 50,000 years. Dramatic consumption reduction is needed, and ever-increasing carbon taxes are needed to drive their conservation.
Carbon taxes are a double edged sword. Will dirt cheap battery automation be achieved or will it be increased energy poverty (and global warming as usual)?
Please see what I wrote to Cameron. Fortunately, the economics of clean energy are rapidly making fossil fuels obsolete, that means they’ll be obsolete forever; we don’t need a supply that last 50,000 years, since no one will care a whit about fossil fuels for more than the next few decades. The issue, of course, is how much damage we will have done in the process. The answer? Nobody knows.
We do know that there is already (and still increasing) damage to deal with. However, i believe you are still right about the fact that nobody knows, because solar just might be able to power even more things than FFs. Including the developing world and the need for proper sequestration via greening entire deserts (seems there would be lots of money and international agreement in that approach).
Craig you left out a biggie- flooded coastal lands drowning very expensive real estate will hurt fossil fuel- maybe even too late.
Conservation with my e-trikes and their ilk will save lots of money with little need for parking lots or energy.
To argue for fossil fuel on any basis is like trying to save at the jobs of the harness makers and buggy whips.
Silent Running
I get up close and personal to a lot of stranded generation assets (both Wind and Solar PV and Solar Thermal) just about everywhere I work around the place over the last 10 years in the RE industry.
I am so used to this now that I am no longer surprised by the worsening situation though, on the contrary I have formulated views (based on observations on the ground – not abstract views wafting around in cyberspace) a long time ago that there was an “inevitable negative technical and financial conclusion” so to speak, embedded into MANY subsidised RE projects happening worldwide (and consider this, every RE project in the world is part owned by some Government through over generous subsidies with no strings attached).
There have been so many RE projects done everywhere, and poor quality ones at that, the conspiracy or convergence of unsolvable technical issues and the soon identified absent commercial viability realities, was sooner or later going to raise eyebrows sufficient for systems or projects to be brought to a standstill, and never to be revisited again.
A major reason why this could happen was (and still is) that individual RE systems are backed by a “silent partner – which is the grid network” and ordinary people are not informed about these things. If the overly generous subsidised RE system fails, so what, the grid steps in to save the day and no one is the wiser. No one seems accountable most of the time because we are all used to hearing about “acceptable intermittency and resources dependent performance” that low standards and expectations are the norm, and systems can simply disappear off radars and they do.
A case in point, only 4 weeks ago I was conducting a technical study for a company, alone on a very large roof hosting about 1 MW of Solar PV. Immediately around it was another 14 similar roofs with 1 MW of PV on each, a total of 15 MW of a heavily Government subsidised installation. Not performing at all – and likely had never been performing from my analysis. The essence of my report: leave it as is because it was not commercially viable to pay for removal and disposal. It is now off the radar.
It doesn’t matter where this system was located, I see this everywhere, but the common denominator is that the very existence of Government subsidies everywhere has led to totally ill-conceived and skewed projects getting the nod without professional due diligence being applied, a total lack of interest in genuine commercial viability of a project; and no strategy in place for ongoing maintenance and support etc, and on and on it goes.
Don’t get me started on wind though, some cases I know intimately involving stranded wind and the taxpayer funding involved leave me a little bit uneasy when I revisit the subject.
Solar thermal is the worst of the lot though and I will hold off on my experience there until another time.
Lawrence Coomber
It does matter where it’s located. ..
The solar around here seems to work. 20% capacity factor is bad for the 20th century, but will be overcome (without the need for NG) in this century.
Give it time (but don’t shut down the nuke plants prematurely, either).
Only innovation can save the biosphere from excess CO2
We can not credibly base the future of any energy source on it’s premature past.
Lawrence your assessment is very Sober and you conclude that most of the RE is not viable or not working but because the Grid back stops it, then no one says anything??
That conclusion is too harsh for me. And Good Sir I have been in the field in numerous States and have some Hands on experience across 38 years.
Some projects had large incentives , some less , some very little and some are Utility or Elec cooperative Coop owned. Though at times it seems things in the US are not operating as professionally as in days past , one thing that stands out is we have some very high Interconnection Standards, the FERC and other Regulatory bodies don’t allow grid interconnection unless the Grid Operators and / or interacting utility has vetted the technology, etc.
Yes early generation equipment especially wind sold in the 1980’s and early 12990’s was not refined nor did most of it perform well. Many of these sites are being remodeled and the turbines are being upgraded to current models that perform very WELL !
Electric Utilities have adjusted their Integrated Resources Planning goals based on greater contributions of the original solar and wind projects that they entered into contract with.
Hells Bells – The wholesale price of electricity in the California CASIO market has been reduced due to the approximately 14,000 total megs of solar. Record keeping has some gaps and duplication’s per CASIO. ( around 8,000 utility scale and the behind the meter solar around 6,000 residential, commercial , etc)
So Lawrence some of this just has to be working as the Grid operators and Utilities Metered It!
They use alot of Smart Meters in California as well ! Take a look at the Solar Duck curves in California!
The china people where I assume you have made some of your observations dont have good standards, they have a worse form of crony capitalism / some sort of Communism and lots of other cultural issues that result in poor siting, poor technology decisions , compromised standards and the lot.
Not to be too harsh on them or a jingoistic american as I am not, but I am sure that exists a lot in the whole of SE Asia they are just emerging from under developed state.
China wants to back off coal faster from the Central government but at the Province or State level the cronyism and the need for jobs for locals has caused many wind farms to not be allowed onto to the grid so no maintenance is done This is done as the local political power masters control the grid and they favor dirty coal for some local jobs etc. The central governments Energy Plans are circumvented and compromised. So lots of wind just does not operate over there and there is no money for O & M.
As I said I don’t mean to throw hard stones just at China but using their situation and various levels of Corruption / Political fumbling may be part of the explanation for some of the Failures you point out. What countries have you seen the failures you claim?
So you should be more Truthful to the group and explain some of the story behind the story!
FYI The Netherlands , Germany and lil bankrupt Portugal have had large percentages of their Grid running on Operating WIND. Scotland has hit 104 % of its total generation needs for periods of the day. so something is working. Same with UK big Wind Farms making major contribution to the UK grid.
In Texas even though the wind tends to peak at night , on some windy days the 14,000 megs of Texas wind contribute over 12 % towards peak demand reduction. And on Weekends the contribution to the entire Texas grid has reached over 40 % toward the system peak. The peak day load in Texas is around 71,000 megs. So Wind on certain days has operated at close to 10,000 megs contribution . They are planning on 15 to 20,000 more Megs so someone is making money and someone is getting a big dose of Electricty !
Your assertions just don’t Pass the Reality Test Lawrence. The market record here and in Europe must be totally different than the SE ASia World or India .
Yes we have had some boondoggles in RE but I don’t think the investment Sector would be so Bullish on investing and underwriting Re projects if the technology was as Bogus as you make claims to???
Lawrence I will agree that there are some flawed projects and god knows we cant know about everything out there that is for sure.
Without some specifics You are speaking about some sort of Alternative Reality that is in Contrast to mainstream reporting.
Take care
Robert yes improvements have been made and more will follow.
Decent fixed South facing residential systems around my area generate 1,800 kwhr per kw. so a 4 kw system will provide 7,200 Kwhrs annually. Average Annual Kwhr use is 7,900 so the current solar system fixed is closing in on ALL of the Average needs.
Replace all lites w LED s and upgrade the refrigerator or throw some more insulation into the attic and one can reduce loads and the solar system can meet all your needs.
Once batteries price reductions arrive solar/ battery combinations can get you real close to net zero etc. Peak demand reduction systems can be sold as a package and this will help the grid in different ways. etc.
Solar PV efficiencies will continue to climb into the high 20’s as they are now at 23 % , 24 % efficiency range. the integrated power enhancers into the panels and improved panels are raising the capacity factor.
Some fixed utility scale are now in the 26 % to 30 % range with single tracking rising to 36 %. so more solar gain and yield.
So real progress is ongoing.
A well designed carbon tax could assist in really slowing carbon down
but as you stated there can be un intended consequences to a carbon tax.
I think more good than bad can come out of it. But in reality it will be Tricky deal!
The things i don’t like about the 30% capacity factor solar is that the concentrated rays have been known to zap birds, and that it seems PV is already cheaper than all the moving parts.
Of course CF doesn’t matter much when batteries are the most efficient form of storage (and when they become much cheaper).
What’s really cool is that Tesla already has figured out how to make them for 80-90% LESS ENERGY (no Eroei issues about storage anymore)!
I have to admit, i was really worried about that low CF and what i thought was a low Energy stored on energy invested concerning the solar battery infrastructure. I thought only large distance integration (HVDC lines) could ever solve that. Now, i believe that batteries will eventually become solid state. No freezing, no overheating and much easier to make, providing even more ESOI than Tesla’s.
Hopefully, people will demand the battery revolution despite political party opposition.
Great Points Cameron and Craig and you two have summed it up well
The Economic Laws of Diminishing returns and soon the Law of Negative Returns will Shackle the carbon masters ….the Sands of Time are running low faster than some think. The Pretend to the End crowd will have to circle their own carbon rings!
Today Norway, Netherlands and Denmark have announced that in just a few years all sales of gasoline vehicles will be BANNED !
The UK will have more EV charging stations in a year than total petrol stations, so much for wallowing in the faded past of empire glory Sir Marco. UK strong and moving Forward and its rightly so!
Going all electric so Lawrence , they are betting on electricity from Wind Get over it!
Some one must be reading these discussions perhaps or they have de carbonized their Mind and Souls ….we need more progress faster
New groups in Colorado forming to stand up for personal property rights against the oil and gas Extractionists & Extortionists !
The political elites don’t like this people power pushback , but I thought we celebrate 4th of July for Independence for real reasons or some other Myth perhaps ??
Confused and Conflicted on the road to cleaner systems!
Craig,
Are you serious ? What do you really believe is the reason for oil companies being force to re-evaluate the value of reserves ?:
A) Wind and Solar generation is now so prevalent that oil products are becoming obsolete, and less valuable,…
Or,
B)Advancements in technology have produced a massive increase in supply for both oil and natural gas leading to a glut and as a consequence market prices have fallen, making reserves less valuable and extraction less profitable.
To survive, both Wind and Solar industries require either small scale specialist operating applications,(including locations) or massive government subsidies, incentives, and regulatory support.
Where taxpayer/consumer support is reduced or removed, these industries mostly become uneconomic and investment dries up.
Hopefully,(although it will take many decades) oil will no longer be used as a fuel but remain an important industrial resource.
Solar and Wind power generation, shouldn’t be considered in the same context as US corn Ethanol. (that’s to say actually more environmentally harmful than oil). Both Solar and Wind technologies have role to play in future energy generation.
Unfortunately for the many ardent advocates of these technologies, the percentage of generation will remain limited and relatively minor.
Good point about the FF.
We can not base the future of solar and batteries on their premature past.
Batteries and solar are being made with less energy. Their manufacture can only become cheaper and more efficient with each passing year, driving their growth.
There are no material constraints to a global solar and battery “only” energy infrastructure. And now, due to manufacturing efficiency, there are no physical restraints either.
The only real constraints to the complete transition from FF are fossil fuel psychology (political and ideological), and its still plentiful abundance.
Since global warming is a fact, we need to overcome the ever lessening monetary costs of FF.
Apparently sharp people across developed western nations are proceeding with sizable investments in wind and solar – despite the continuing history of instability in government subsidies for these technologies and their deployment. It seems their calculations of ROI potential aren’t entirely dependent on stable subsidies from state actors.
This is 100% correct, btw.
Craig,
I installed solar technology both on my homes, and Australian farming property.
Solar has some value. It certainly has value in areas where grid connection is uneconomic or impractical.
This is true of all renewable energy technologies. Bio-fuels can be economic and environmentally beneficial in some specialized locales, such as Brazil, Mauritius, Fiji, etc with excessive sugar production.
Yet as we have seen the from the result of US corn ethanol, bio-fuel mandates result in environmental devastation on a global scale.
Wind and Solar definitely have some value, but extrapolating that to replacing fossil fuels is logistically unsupportable.
Investment will always follow a regulatory or government policy driven favorable environment. There is nothing more reassuring for an investor to know the taxpayer/consumer ‘must’ pick up the tab !
Germany, Spain, even Nevada have all seen the results of massive investments in Wind and Solar rapidly collapse once subsidies, regs, etc are reduced.
The huge and extremely wealthy corporations involved in the Solar or Wind industries are no more “moral” than any other corporations. These corporation spend vast sums on PR, lobbyists etc to maintain favorable trading conditions.
A lot of hope and faith has been invested in Wind and Solar technology, and it’s my contention (and I’m not alone) that the hype has produced an overly optimistic evaluation of the real value of these technologies.
Cut the subsidies, remove the incentives , and remove favorable regulatory requirements and the large scale application of these technologies withers and dies.
(investment disappears when the profit disappears).
Again, I repeat, this is not true in all instances. There will always be exceptions where local conditions ensure economic viability.
The only technology that can immediately replace large scale industrial “on demand” power generation is advance nuclear. (I favour Thorium).
@ Robert,
“There are no material constraints to a global solar and battery “only” energy infrastructure. And now, due to manufacturing efficiency, there are no physical restraints either.”
Wow ! That’s a really sweeping statement ! Unfortunately, it’s also in the realm of fantasy. Just wanting something to be true, doesn’t mean it is true !
Industrial societies need massive amounts of “Power on Demand”, not unreliable intermittent generating capacity.
Battery technology is increasing, but it’s capacity is limited by resource availability like every our technology. Electricity storage presents a huge challenge, even more complex than energy storage.
Grandly optimistic statements are all very well, but they can encourage substituting impractical utopian dreams, for more practical endeavors.
Marco,
Just how much of a difference is they’re between “bad” bunker oil and “good” diesel? Explain it in molecules. While you’re at it, please explain the nature of the exponential growth of solar.
Are we to believe that only great and far reaching achievements could only happen before the age of liability?
Yes, i know, nuclear is far more practical. But it’s not happening as fast as the mass automation of the diffuse and intermittent. Batteries are already starting the very beginning of the growth curve. Isn’t it to be expected that others will out do Tesla?
No matter what people say, i stand with the already proven results of today’s emerging innovation!
@ Robert,
Thank you for your interest.
Please find the following description of “bunker oil”
Marine grade No 6 Fuel Oil (Bunker oil) is a grade of fuel liquid fractionally distilled from crude oil.
In comparison with other petroleum products, bunker fuel is extremely crude,toxic and highly polluting.
After crude oil is extracted, it goes through a refining process called fractional distillation. During fractional distillation, the oil is heated, causing different types of oil within the crude to separate as they have different boiling points. Classically, fractional distillation is accomplished in a distillation column, which siphoned off various fractions as they precipitated out. During fractional distillation, oil refineries also employ catalysts to “crack” the hydrocarbon chains in the crude oil to create specific oil fractions.
Small molecules like those in propane gas, naptha, gasoline for cars, and jet fuel have relatively low boiling points, and they are removed at the start of the fractional distillation process.
Heavier petroleum products like diesel and lubricating oil precipitate out more slowly, and bunker oil is literally the bottom of the barrel ! Only tar for paving roads and sealing roofs is more dense than bunker Oil.
In contrast, Marine Distillate is vastly less toxic, pollutant, and much easier to clean up.
(The actual chemical engineering you look up for yourself. )
Thanks for the summary. That makes sense. When painting a house with oil base stain, i found out that we can’t have paint thinner anymore (California) and is now replaced with a kind of lacquer thinner. Paint thinner merely cleans wet oil based paints while the other eats through any already dry paint.
So I’m was wondering why it is considered more enviro safe to have what seems to be a more toxic lacquer thinner as the replacement. Then it occurred to me. The lacquer thinner evaporates much more before it can get into the ground.
“Realm of fantasy”
Oh negative one, tell me your fantasy (bet they’re not being developed on the exponential scale that solar and batteries are … Ha.
Ok,
I read what you said about thorium and can’t deny that it would be more practical (because of capacity factor and energy density). However too many people fear the security issues of any nuclear, especially the close cycle. Most don’t like the wastefulness of the open cycle, therefore (my reasoning for) the need to research for the best li-ion or other (and solid state) battery tech and develop the mass automation required to make it happen for dirt cheap. I know it’s possible because Tesla had already figured out how to make them using 80 – 90% less energy (no more esoi, and associated physical boundary worries there!).
I liked nuclear until i thought about what it would be like for everybody to have their own miniature nuclear generator… everybody in rogue states, too. Given time, there will be a f up (and this time, it might be due to a lapse of security).
What prevents people from ciphoning a small bit of practinium for wait, for the six months or so until it’s pure U233 ? Security (and the inability to build a lead shielded robot).
Hi Robert,
Oh, my fantasies might get you arrested 🙂
Not sure where to reply but also wanted to say, concerning fantasies, that people are converting dreams into reality all the time. I was just reading the following
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Elon-Musk-Full-Autonomy-is-Coming-Sooner-Than-Anyone-Expects-and-It-Will
Hi Robert,
Yes, I saw that article, good stuff. Of course almost any interview with Elon Musk is guaranteed to be interesting and thought provoking.
@ Robert and Cameron love your Articulate banter with our Contrarian Critic from the Land Down Under ….well spoken men thanks for the laughs and entertaining points contradicting the Knave under the Bridge many dead end points and negative out look on Renewable Energy.
The bunker fuel discussion though is meaningful and our Knave under the Bridge brings good technical analysis from time to time. Maybe the green Movement should direct its attention to the Maritime Industry and see what a lift it would be to get Bunker fuel phased out and the use of all Marine grade diesel increased. I nominate Sir Marco for this meaningful role the world does need some leadership.
Perhaps that cause could gain some traction !
Sure the economic blow-back would be fierce but so was our collective efforts against so called cheap coal back in the early days but we persevered and now we got the carbon burners on the Run. They are beating Retreat all many Fronts!
@ Marco Polo you label Robert and others the Fantasy Seekers or followers, well Deal me in too Beyond All the Way.
FYI – here is some more Market Truth from the Seeker side of the Rainbow!, You claim that Nevada over did it with renewable’s and now it has collapsed. That is the RE market has failed! The Tides of battle have quickly turned my Mate! .
FYI – The only coal plant in Nevada already scheduled to close in a few years has now had its Death Sentence speeded up by the State and the major Utility. They are replacing it with Tracking solar plants .
No Robert not the CPS type with the high bird deaths but the simple pv single tracker which is the least cost most performance Format for now.
Also three of the biggest casinos are spending over $125 million dollars to buy their way Off the Grid and buying into massive solar and geo thermal plants. !!! They are not betting on your nuclear Genie and they are gambling types my friend.! They want a solution that is producing NOW and not prancing around on some theoretical design phase for decades …
So that is the state of things from the Fantasy Dreamers….till next time and more results I will sit back and read and enjoy the articulation of Positive thoughts from other com-mentors good material Indeed! …I have much dreaming to do over here
Like I said earlier the carbon bust has Texas drillers Hungry for decent work they have discovered Geo thermal loop fields cleaner work cleaner energy too ! Its a Happening thing
Our Fantasy is so strong that we banned a coal colliery in Oakland to ship massive amounts of Utah and Wy coal to Se Asia. Well it is dead. We are now going to enter phase 2 of our Mission. We will starve the Carbon Beast ! On both sides of the Ponds !
Coal is beating retreat send flowers !
@ Silent Running,
Sorry about the length of this post, but I’ve got lot’s of time on this flight.
It’s great that you are enthusiastic about renewable energy and new technology. It’s also heartening to see you are passionate about the environment.
I realize you’re not alone in being wildly enthusiastic, and passionately committed, but environmental science and policy isn’t like cheering a football team !
The emergence of a heady mix of environmental issues, left-wing politics, ideology and a sort of new faith based crusade, will eventually do more harm to environmental causes than benefit.
I also realize that’s not what a ‘crusader’ want to hear. I like the boundless enthusiasm which American bring to causes. However, for any reality progress to be achieved it must be based on reality and the support of the majority of citizens.
Joe public has heard many doomsday stories and has been caught up in mad crusades once too often, and has grown cautious. That’s not say he won’t listen to a well thought out proposal, but just that he’s growing wary.
The US has seen some really negative crusades (also some uplifting ones), the Volstead Act (Prohibition) the ‘War on Drugs’ and many other disasters. All were proposed by really convinced, well meaning people.
In the late 60’s and early ’70’s Joe Public was assured that the end of civilization was about to occur the the influential think tank, ‘Club of Rome’ formed a consensus of experts, and announced that 1977 would be the “Year the Stork passed the Plow “!
The UN accepted this information and a Nobel Peace prize was awarded to it’s principle authors. Apocalyptic movies were made,(No Blade of Grass) politicians met, international conferences were held etc.
After all the fuss died down, 1978 arrived and far from the “irreversible famine’ , the world experienced a global glut of food production !
Fast forward a few years and Joe Public is informed by a consensus of ‘experts’ that M. King Hubbert 1956 prediction was correct and Peak oil had or was already occurring, oil production would continue to fall and prices would continue to rise.
Once again, Armageddon was predicted, apocalyptic movies made, politicians met, public money was spent, conferences of concerned ‘experts’ met, Nobel peace prizes awarded for predicting the demise of oil through scarcity.
Civilization was doomed !
Hmmm,..’cept here we are in 2016 experiencing an oil glut!
Joe public has also seen “wunderkind’ technology extolled and costing Joe Public $billions, only to later prove a disaster. (the US corn Ethanol).
What I’m trying to explain is the average voter is disillusioned with ‘Crusades’ , especially when they are confused with extraneous political issues. Joe public has heard the cry of “Wolf” once too often.
Wild, unsupportable predictions, overly enthusiastic claims, extremist advocacy and poorly thought through proposals only make it harder for serious environmentalists to convince the vast majority of the merits of supporting practical environmental initiatives.
It takes patience and hard work to convince Joe Public of the merits of environmentally clean technology. That can’t be done by treating the issues as a sort of football match.
Nor is it helped by gloomy armchair oracles predicting doom and destruction of the very institutions needed to effect change.
Silent, I’m sincere when I say I have no wish to dampen your enthusiasm, but just wanting something to be true, and cheering really loudly, doesn’t make it true.
But I really do love your enthusiasm, if you’re ever looking for a marketing position, I’d hire you like a shot !
I’ve had my share of success in investing and backing new technology. I’ve also had some failures and disappointments. As a result I’ve learned to acquire a sense of perspective.
Solar and Wind (solar in particular) do have a place in energy generation, but neither technology can provide the sort of massive “on demand ” generating capacity required by industrial societies.
Just to give you an idea, one industry alone in the US, the cement industry uses more power than 12 times the entire production of all renewable generation, including hydro !
Now just think, the US is only the world third biggest cement producer ! Many older coal fired power generators have become uneconomic because the industries they once supplied have disappeared overseas. Al that happened was the US coal generator may have gone, but a bigger one opened in China, India etc.
the reason coal fired power stations are closing is they can’t compete with the newly resurgent, cleaner, and more economic natural gas generation. Natural gas generation is also more compatible with heavily subsidized renewable sources.
There is no battle! It’s just economics. If governments invest in creating uneconomic sources of energy, there must inevitably be a economic consequences when local industry can’t compete with foreign competition.
Energy production is a very complex issue. Just finding a technology you like and cheering for it, isn’t really helpful.
Incidentally, despite massive incentives, sales of EV’s in Norway have failed to keep pace with the sales of conventional vehicles.
Sadly, where ever incentives are lessened or removed EV sales disappear. I’m really hopeful that Tesla’s reputation and new models may help reverse the trend.
Just as a personal observation for you to consider. Just supposing you were an ordinary person, maybe a little skeptical about the environment and sick of being preached at by ‘greenies’.
Who would you be more likely to listen to;
a) Advocates like Cameron, telling you the world will certainly be destroyed and it’s all your fault, unless you immediately adopt his political ideology and join in the revolution.
or
B) Moderates like me, with no political or ideological agenda, but an explanation of how you can benefit from new technology, without a ‘revolution’ but betting your prosperity, lifestyle and as a bonus, help the environment.
Since, unlike Cameron I can take you in an Electric vehicle (Tesla or LERR) to see completed environmental projects I’ve played a part in bringing to reality for the benefit of all, you might feel more inclined to accept and adopt environment technology, than from an advocate who hates oil companies, but drives a diesel !
What do you think ?
Incidentally, I don’t dislike Cameron, and I’ve always tried to get him to tell us about any environmental projects he’s been involved in (to no avail), but as I’ve said elsewhere, isn’t it preferable to concentrate on humbler, less grandiose, and more achievable targets ? eg: eliminating;-
1) Bunker Oil emissions, ( the equivalent of 50 billion motor vehicles),
2) 100 million tonnes of methane, ( equivalent to 8.6 billion tonnes of CO2)
3) Replacing 2&4 stroke lawn and horticultural machinery. with EV technology EV ( equivalent of maybe 140 million cars).
These are just three, of many environmentally friendly technologies, with mature technologies, easily implemented without major disruptive economic or social consequences.
I have spent the last 20 years promoting, developing, funding and implementing practical solutions and environmentally beneficial technology.
If at times I seem a little impatient with those who are more interested in advocating a sort of exciting utopian social “revolution” rather than take part in any useful achievements,….well, I hope you will forgive my occasional lapses of tact.
@ Marco @ Cameron
We are not Crusaders just committed to trying to make a positive difference in these matters.
My more detailed and complete reply to you was zapped out as I tried to send it. Lost a excellent reply and sensitive communications …much regrets. Took a hour to compose as I take responding to the Mate from Down Under serious
Indeed from what you say about your activities you have made a difference. I regret also that others and the political systems have failed you . They have failed most good thinking people thru the decades . Flawed Human condition perhaps.
So good On You for the positive environmental Stewardship you have done.
Back to me and being a so called Crusader
When we sell some projects in the near term we will be sure to tell the buyer that they should ignore the High IRR, the Good ROI and the nice mix of technologies and Positive cash flow from day one , day one.
Ignore all that – buy the project because we are doomed Crusaders on a Mission of Misdirected emotion and Forlorn causes etc. We strive to ensnare all we meet into a Nets and drag them down to destruction like the real crusaders did many Moons ago!
Trust us we will find a way Yet to fail you as we are about failure and Not about maintaining or protecting the un economic status quo . It is also not sustainable for future generations.
You don’t have to go to Barnes and Noble to buy a book or look at pictures and ancient drawings you are seeing first hand Crusaders , who are on this Don Quixote Illusion of a Noble Quest ! etc etc. You got a private viewing and it was free too !
I think not Sir Marco we are there presenting a high value solution to your business operational problems with a doable technical solution and financing plan that allows you to have Positive Cash flow from Day One 1
On the other hand Thank you for the positive words buried in the middle of your reply.
Lighten up on Mr Cameron he says an writes thoughtful and reflective concepts , find them interesting and definitely not negative either.
what a concept
Carry On Mate