Re: CleanTech Innovation in the Public and Private Sectors
Here’s a conversation that I’m having with a business/cleantech-savvy colleague in Kansas City that I hope you find interesting:
Colleague: I just read Arsenal of Democracy and Freedom’s Forge, two books of the last five years, both dedicated to how the US ramped up a minor defense industry prior to involvement in WW2.
In a nutshell the government worked with business with whole purpose, fast contracts, clear goals, and outside normal channels of bureaucracy. The US went from a non-player, wildly behind in military asserts, to the world’s major force of change, but it was not done conventionally.
The President harnessed a patriotic and skeptical business community to get it done, changing the world with the actions, but it was a plan to win, not to study.
To contrast that with what we have seen with gridlock and utility stifling of innovation and progress, and such is hard to even illustrate, our current state embarrasses our history.
The lessons are there; obviously we need to seek out the new forces of execution in the economy, but status quo bureaucracies don’t work and the utilities hijacked the power of the purse, and thus the power to pull progress forward. All while the local politicians sat on their hands understanding very little.
Craig: You’re 100% correct. And unfortunately neither of the major candidates for president will lift a finger to reverse this.
Colleague: I believe that, tech industry needs to embarrass and push both candidates, and talk to public directly. Call out utilities and BS artists preventing advancement.
Craig: My belief is that market forces alone will make fossil fuels obsolete very soon, certainly within the next decade or so.
This is fortunate, as there is no reason to believe that government, especially here in the US, will do anything about this until our land mass starts shrinking quickly due to sea level rise, and there are hundreds of millions of climate refugees turning our planet into one big disaster area. Keep in mind that the will of the people has virtually zero impact on public policy making.
Government (at least the two major parties) wants only to be in power, and will fabricate any story necessary to make that happen.
This is untrue about Bernie Sanders individually and the Green Party as a whole, but it seems fairly unrealistic that any such ideology could possibly win here, especially given that we’ve all learned, to our horror, that we are we’re living among a huge number of Trump supporters. Anyone who believes that climate change is a Chinese hoax and that the US should become a hate-driven police state is not in a cognitive and emotional state to care about where this planet is headed.
Colleague: I mostly agree, but the tech industry is doing things anyway, and Tesla, Google, and Uber will do it right in front of a political system which is paralyzed.
Craig: Again, you are 100% correct. I think we’re talking about the same thing: innovation that makes clean energy and transportation cost-effective, and thus, soon, ubiquitous. This is going to unfold FAR more rapidly that most people realize. We’re very near a tipping point, driven by the advancement of technology.
Craig the theme of your post here is the standout one from 2GreenEnergy.com this year in my opinion.
I emphasise theme, the content lacks punch, but everything great has to start somewhere. Well done.
I note it comes hot on the heels of a 2GreenEnergy.com posting I made only 2 weeks ago about nation building projects that mobilise and reframe national mood and identity. There have been many notable national projects around the world this last century, but none more exciting and uplifting than the US Apollo moon mission which was introduced to the world in a famous speech delivered by President Kennedy (also during troubled national times).
The US in my humble opinion, is again in need of another exciting and nation building scientific project of epic proportions at this time. And equally importantly the global benefits through knock effects will be profound and historic almost beyond imagination.
That project is of course the development of new age energy generation science that will power the world with abundant, clean, safe, cost effective power, that will provide an enduring platform from which all future new age scientific technological endeavours and engineering developments will be made possible.
To finish up, it sounds to me Craig like you are getting yourself primed, to up the quality, content and commitment of your consumer advocacy to emboldened new heights, that hopefully will see you pack more punch in your advocacy including becoming a lot less tolerant of soft solutions thinking that seems to have neutralised the critical climate change and greenhouse gas debate, but in contrast has been a wonderful “commercial and vested interests leg up” for the renewable energy debate.
Well done and the title of your posting “CleanTech Innovation the Public and Private Sector” could well have been “Renewable Energy Innovation the Public and Private Sector” but wasn’t. A good decision that keeps us all on notice.
Lawrence Coomber
We have also read in Lester Brown’s “Plan B” of a similar plan applied to the environment. It seemed exciting. It could drive the economy.
Unfortunately it is far easier to get the mob to go out and lynch someone than to plant 1000 trees or stop using oil.
Craig,
Let’s see if I understand your propositions correctly.
A)” market forces along will make fossil fuels obsolete very soon, certainly within the next decade (or so )
B)Only Bernie Sanders ( and the green party) can save the nation and the world from catastrophe.
C) The President (Sunders ?) should be given wartime powers to override the constitution in order to achieve political/ideological objectives unobtainable through the ballot box.
Now, I may be misjudging your positions, but doesn’t (A) render (B) & (C) a little unnecessary ?
Regrettably, the global economy will rely on a 40-20% reliance on coal energy will continue for several decades.
Oil and natural gas will continue to remain important as energy products well into the second half of the century, and remain important industrial products thereafter.
Clean Tech is not a “revolutionary” process but “evolutionary”.
There will always be some exciting and innovative “breakthroughs” but essentially, progress is better achieved through a process of gradual improvements, while minimizing wastage supporting cul-de-sac technologies and other ideologically driven, impractical, failed schemes.
Advocates like Bernie Saunders are just the flip-side of Donald Trump. They both peddle obsolete, simplistic, but populist ideas and solutions, with no ability to clearly state how such policies might be practically implemented.
I realize it’s frustrating for impassioned advocates, to be asked to provide complex logistics analysis to support their dreams.
When does it get scary ? When advocates for movements or political figures start demanding extreme power and measures to suppress dissent, because they are frustrated with the restrictions of elective process.
Haha. MarcoPolo whats happening lately at your place.
I am struggling to keep up with your thinking old mate.
My suggestion (and of course this is offered in good humour and with the highest respect) is: go back to cooking your fresh vegies for dinner – instead of smoking them.
I thought you had gotten over that trendy phase by now?
Lawrence Coomber
Hi Lawrence,
Sadly, although when young I tried the joy’s of herbal enhancements, all it did for me was a sore throat and mild stomach cramps ! (but I also never smoked cigarettes).
What part of my thinking do you find difficult ?
In the Australian context it would be like comparing the policies of the Greens with One Nation. Both range from impractical, to bat shit crazy !
In those nations blessed with the Westminster system of representative government, we try to achieve progress through reform, not revolution. (Slower, but more reliable).
With all your experience, surely you must have come to realize that just wanting something to be true, doesn’t make it so ! (Not even if it should be).
In 1961 when JFK announced what would become Apollo 11, the US was the richest nation in the history of the world. US industry, commerce, and trade was unchallenged. National Debt was less than 31% of GDP% and offset by inflation and US treasury reserves, leaving the US budget in surplus.
The cost of Apollo 11 over 9 years was $25 billion, offset by inflation and NASA earnings. The cost to the US taxpayer was relatively insignificant. (US Treasury estimates the programs cost each US taxpayer $11 dollars per year).
In contrast, in 2016 the US has a national debt of nearly $ 20 trillion, no reserves, debt to GDP ratio of 170% , inflation at under 1% , economic growth rate of 1% or negative,.
US commerce, industry and trade is in a state of near collapse. Government revenue is decreasing, while foreign competition is advancing on traditional US precedence everywhere except the oil industry.
In 1961, JFK could afford a ‘moonshot’, today the US President is wondering where all the money went !( the US struggles just borrow enough to pay the interest on borrowings!)
Uneconomic technology just can’t keep eating up government/taxpayer/ consumer funding or the nation eventually becomes noncompetitive.
No one should have learned this lesson better than Australia. The opportunities afforded Australia by the economic management of Howard-Costello left the nation debt free, big surpluses and capital reserves.
The national was well placed to take advantage of the mining boom, but instead choose to squander the opportunity with 7 chaotic years of misgovernment by a Labour/Green alliance.
After 7 years the nation was left with a number of failed schemes, bitter political infighting, no capital reserves, no heavy industry and huge debt. (and a illegal migration refugee legacy).
So you tell me, why on earth would anyone support more grandiose schemes ?
Ol’ Cameron may hate oil companies, but he drives a ICE car. I don’t “hate” oil companies, but I drive an EV ! (I also build, sell, and service electric vehicles).
I’m an advocate for clean tech ! In fact it’s fair to say I’m a bit of a clean tech fanatic, but I recognize the limitations and logistical difficulties.
Show me a clean tech idea, with a comprehensive plan of implementation and a suitable sunset clause for any taxpayer/consumer support, and I will be your first and most ardent supporter !
However, I’ve grown weary of idealistic dreamers with fuzzy concepts, relying of distorted scenario’s to justify uneconomic and impractical projects.
So Lawrence, what’s so hard to understand about my thinking ?
Let me know when you are passing by my factory Marcopolo [Wuxi] and I would be pleased to show you some very interesting new E-Bike type developments we are involved in: retro-fitting of 5 KW 72 VDC drives to 450cc dirt racing machines for example, and achieving a 3 kg nett weight reduction overall whilst improving rider ergo’s and machine handling considerably through custom designed BMS controls.
Although we have done a lot of development turning hub motors up to 10 KW into generators for micro hydro applications, this is a new side interest for us really and stems from a long history of dirt racing [motocross] in my family. I raced [not very proficiently I add] until I was 55 and have been an administrator in the sport for many years in Australia.
The electric drive has neck snapping torque, but we are in the process of taming that with software design to “manufacture traction” better which is what it is all about really.
Hi Lawrence,
You have a factory developing and manufacturing electric motors for two-wheel EV’s in Waxi ? That’s most impressive ! Mo you speak Mandarin ?
I haven’t had a lot of luck pioneering two-wheel EV’s, I was involved in financing the first serious attempt to build a large commuter bike, Vectrix . ( I was lucky to extricate my clients investment and my own from the debacle.)
I traveled to Waxi to extricate a client’s investment during the Suntech debacle. ( That was a very difficult mission). Suntech was typical of the wild west approach during the boom in Solar.
(But hey, what’s a few $ billion in fraudulent bonds, creative accounting, and shuffling, between friends eh ? ) 🙂
We are not manufacturing 2 wheel EVs MarcoPolo – we are dabbling in this at the R&D stage as a side interest only. This is pure self indulgence only really because of family motocross racing history and the fact that we are well connected to the Chinese hub motor industry for a number of reasons unrelated to EVs but more the motor itself in a micro hydro generator role. We manufacture renewable energy off grid systems in Wuxi though.
Regarding Suntech, well they have had their problems but oddly enough the “commercial” version of PV solar panels was an Australian invention coming out of R&D at the University of NSW and the research team included a Chinese Graduate engineer Shi Zhengrong who is now an Australian citizen and of course the founding chairman of Suntech in Wuxi.
We are associates and he is known fondly as “the father of solar” which is a reasonable description I feel also.
Dr Shi is a visionary scientist and I have enjoyed from time to time discussing the changes necessary for solar PV science to morph into its next incarnation. On this subject we are both in agreement and there has been a lot of R&D going on around the place for at least the last 5 years in new format solar PV (necessarily very different from the existing format naturally enough for many reasons, one being the cost of labour to install existing format PV is not sustainable). Even blind Freddie can figure that one out.
But it has been a long time brewing though for many reasons one being the “riding of the commercial wave of generous government subsidies everywhere for existing format solar panels” which ground a lot of PV R&D to a standstill understandably.
Lawrence Coomber
Hi Lawrence,
Hey, don’t get me wrong there’s nothing wrong with investing in a self indulgence !
Nor were my comments meant to include all the people at Suntech, especially Dr Shi Zhengrong whom I would agree is a visionary and reputable scientist.
It’s my opinion Dr Shi and his associates got caught up in a whirlwind of high flying financial manipulators and speculators, with very dubious reputations and even more murky connections.
Micro hydro generators are a really fascinating technology with overlooked potential. I wish you every success.
Oh, by the way, Do you speak Mandarin? I envy those who do, I’m afraid I’m just too old to learn more than the rudiments, but my daughter is getting very proficient.
Do I speak Mandarin? – well only when I have to, and only in front of an enthusiastic captive audience!
http://www.98xtxy.com/html/2013/xydt_0905/3720.html
Lawrence Coomber
@ Lawrence
Oh well done ! Obviously you have a deep and passionate commitment to your chosen field of expertise.
I’ve asked my staff to dig me up some material one Micro-hydro generating technology, so I can I can read it on the flight home.
Hopefully, the next time I will be in a position to be able to discuss this fascinating technology with a little more knowledge.
Thanks for sharing.