Can We Predict the Fate of Humankind? No. Can We Affect It? Absolutely.
Frequent commenter Marco Polo writes in response to my post Humankind Possesses Superior Intelligence–But There’s a Catch: “The End is Nigh” has been a common catch cry among doomsday prophets throughout the ages.
You’re correct that, throughout history, there have been people predicting doom, and even more people making fun of them. In most cases, the latter people turn out to be correct. However, what happens in the case of extinctions, of course, is that the former set has the last laugh (though it’s hardly a laugh).
When the last tree was felled on Easter Island, I’m sure there was someone of intelligence and compassion begging him to put his saw away, but he was swiftly overruled by a whole crowd of people chuckling at the silliness of someone who could be so stupid to predict disaster. Within a few years, that civilization was gone.
We could very well be experiencing the equivalent case here; I’m certainly not alone in my concerns that this is precisely what’s happening. But if you want to make fun of me, that’s your right. Enjoy yourself.
MarcoPolo continues: Why is it so hard to accept that humans “are what they are?”
A belief that the human race cannot improve itself is at least as pessimistic and cynical as my concern about another extinction event. If I didn’t believe in the edification of our race, I’d be out on the beach right now. Fortunately, however, the last 800 years of world history has shown us that we are capable of great strides in terms of rule of law, human rights, democracy/liberty, and, in many cases, mercy and compassion.
Craig,
My goodness, that’s a pretty bleak accusation you level against the ancient Easter foresters !
Attributing the collapse of Easter Island culture on the cutting down of “forests’, is a popular misconception.
Easter Island was never heavily forested by trees in the accepted sense, although several types of palms grew, some even unique to the island. It’s more probable that the introduction of Polynesian rats (Rattus exulans or kiore) saw the demise of many varieties of palm trees.
Most of the excitement surrounding the de-forrestation comes from authors like Jared Diamond’s bestseller, “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,”.
Diamond like many others, describes the decline of island life as ecocide and de-forestration led to Easter Island’s downfall.
Regrettably, Polynesia has a long history of earnest academics inappropriately and inaccurately, speculating on island cultures as metaphors to support various ideological theories.
The small and remote archipelago known as Easter Island, has a very sad and mysterious history.
In the legends of the remaining native peoples, the islands were settled by mistake !
A small part of one of the great Polynesian fleets bound for Hawaii got lost and made landfall at Easter Island.
In legend, the commander of the outriggers, promptly saw an opportunity for advancement from sub-chief and set himself up as King of the new island.
During the intervening 800 years or so, the original Polynesian settlers have endured famines, epidemics of disease and cannibalism, civil war, slave raids, various colonial contacts most of which were disastrous and cruel.
The tragedy is even more ironic as the original Polynesian seafarers were probably escaping a natural disaster on their home islands affecting fishing stocks.
Eater Island is a good example of the need for the human species to remain outward looking, constantly receiving new challenges and
stimulus, and the real need for high levels of dietary protein, preferable from meat.
If there’s a lesson to be learned from Easter Island, it’s that humans are not good at harmonious Utopia ! We are much better at competition, squabbling and exploration.
The Easter Islanders are not extinct, they still exist even if there are only 2-3000 ! Even as I write, a group of Rapu Nui are happily squabbling with the government of Chile, while arguing with other Rapu Nuians about independence,etc.
The arrival of the internet will provide even greater disharmony, and help them survive !
(Oh, I thought I’d mention, over the years I’ve made several trips to Eater Island. The only way to get a true perspective of it’s remote location is by sailing vessel.)
I’ve heard that theory about the rats. I guess we’ll never know for sure.
As far as the lesson to be learned, yes, I suppose one could infer that’s we’re inherently violent and cruel. You’d have plenty of evidence to support that hypothesis, and plenty of literature, e.g., “Lord of the Flies.”
Craig,
It’s true the inhabitants of Easter Island were pretty unlucky.
however, while human nature can be cruel and certainly violent, it also be kind and gentle, even altruistic to each other and our fellow creatures.
Humans are a very diverse and adaptive species. Every human possesses many side to their character. The same human may react differently to changes in circumstances on different occasions.
Easter Island does prove that human societies (and individuals) do not prosper or advance if isolated.
Attempts to re-Forrest Easter Island are proving difficult. The soil has become too thin and lacks nutrients. Palms will no longer grow naturally without considerable assistance and nurture but salt-resistant aito trees, and Eucalyptus species from Australia are faring better.
Re-forestation has created a fierce divide between those trying to plant trees and those who want Eater island to remain a barren lesson to their theories on the wickedness of mankind.
A second group opposes the re-introduction of trees not native to the island as despoiling native culture. This logic of this group is baffling.
Lot’s of earnest young volunteers arrive each year and work hard planting seedling, sadly most seedlings [perish without constant nurture and fertilizer.
Some progress has been made, there are now some 80,000 trees, but more than 300,000 are needed before the forest can be self sustaining.
Curiously, none of the islands are rich in guano, evidence bird life hasn’t been very numerous for a long time (this supports the rat theory).
What’s seldom mentioned, is evidence of extinction or existence of the sort of diversity of undergrowth expected if the island was once heavily forested. no evidence is found of any pre-human flightless bird life or bio-diversity. (that doesn’t meant there wasn’t any, just none found).
It’s possible when the first Polynesian settlers arrived, Easter Island was already suffering a lack of bio-diversity. The giant palms, discouraged other species and reduced the diversity of birds and insects, further reducing the gene pool.
This is not good news for those who regard evolution as “benevolent” or “wise”. Those who admire certain types of fauna for evolving to adapt to harsh environments, seldom consider the possibility of the fauna being responsible for the harsh environment !