What Motivates American Voters
A commenter writes about the prospect of Trump’s being reelected. “Come 2020, most Americans will judge this administration by a simple yardstick, ‘am I better off in 2020 than I was in 2016’? As long the answer is ‘Yes’, the President and administration will be returned.”
It’s funny, I had this precise thought going into November of 2016. Under Obama’s leadership, the economy gained a net 11.6 million jobs, the unemployment rate dropped to below the historical norm, after-tax corporate profits set records, and the S&P 500 index rose 166 percent. As I wrote at the time, “I’d hate to be a Republican running into that buzzsaw.” But, as we saw to our astonishment, what happened in 2016 was, for most voters, more complicated than “voting for one’s pocketbook.”
Most Wealthy People Love Trump
Sure, the top 1% voted for Trump on that basis; they saw huge tax relief, the removal of regulatory processes, opening up public lands for oil and gas exploration, and the dismantling of entire pieces of the federal government. It was an opportunity for the billionaires/Libertarians like none they had ever imagined–a chance to make themselves and their heirs rich beyond their wildest hopes, and to carve this new position of ownership deep into the legal structure of this country.
Joe Six-Pack Loves Trump Even More
But what did the rank and file Trump voter see that they liked so much? Well, here is someone who:
• wasn’t Hillary
• wasn’t black, who would
• slam the door on immigrants, Islam, and other undesirables
• ensure that even the tiniest bit of gun control would remain impossible
• do everything possible to frustrate environmentalists and other “libtards”
• make the U.S. a Christian nation
• would favor war over diplomacy
• not discourage the rebuilding of the platform that had been destroyed in the mid-20th Century on which white supremacy could be openly discussed
What the Rank and File Trump Supporter Actually Got
What they’ve gotten vis-a-vis Trump’s promises for economic growth isn’t much:
• Stagnant wages, low-quality jobs, and rising costs have created an economy in which 51 million American households struggle to afford basic necessities.
• Today, 4 in 10 adults would not be able to afford a $400 emergency expense.
So, What Can We Forecast in 2020?
Looking at the ‘am I better off financially’ yardstick is too close to call. Did the employers of a randomly chosen working-class Trump supporter move to Mexico? How has his sector been affected by the tariffs, and how will that change in the weeks and months to come? Does he work in an industry, like cleantech, that the U.S. has chosen not to lead? Does he work in one of the sectors that is, in fact, doomed especially because of cleantech, e.g., coal-mining? Was he unlucky enough to get sick or injured, and is he one of the seven million people who no longer has health insurance due to the new Republican policies? Maybe he dodged these bullets; maybe he didn’t.
Outside of Financial Well-Being, Does Anything Else Matter To This Election?
There’s no clear answer here, but what is clear is that things like compassion and decency will have nothing to do with it. We already know that women, at least in parts of the country, support harsher penalties for doctors who perform abortions than for those who commit rape and incest. We know that a majority of women across the country will not hesitate to vote for a man who brags about grabbing them by their vaginas.
If you’ve read all this because you thought I’d give you a definite prediction, I’m sorry to disappoint.
Having said that, I’m a huge believer in the Black Swan Effect, i.e., the huge impact made by unforeseeable circumstances. I would be shocked if, at this time next year, there hasn’t been a a few astonishing events.
Craig,
There is an old saying,” There are none so blind as those who have eyes, and yet choose not to see” !
Either one of us is living on a different planet, or you must be either willfully disingenuous or hopelessly delusional.
Trump supporters are not members of a mysterious cabal of “billionaires”. Quite the opposite would be true, most prominent billionaires loath Trump and support his opponents.
The Koch Bros have been funding any conservative candidate willing to oppose Trump, while Jeff Bezos on his own, donated twice as much money to Trump opponents, than the cost of the entire Trump election campaign !
The economy left by Obama was a sad, deteriorating ruin. The ordinary American had given up hope, especially those living in poverty traps in the old rust belt and rural areas.
The US was a nation ravaged by the worst effects globalization, exhausted by funding “Pax Americana”, tied into absurd, costly and disadvantageous trade treaties.
The blue collar American, black, white, rural, and Hispanic felt deserted, forgotten and despised by the Washington Elite and Democrat lpoliticians.
These are the Trump supporters, and boy, has he delivered on his promises!
Blue collar worker wages and employment have boomed ! The tax cuts and other initiatives have all worked beyond everyone’s expectations.
The President’s support has swelled among traditional democrat and working class Americans, especially among black and Hispanic women.
Classing your bizarre inaccuracies and blatant mistrusts as being delusional, is my attempt to politely explain how your your partisan passion and obsessional hatred of this President has destroyed your capacity to accept reality and evaluate his achievements and administration objectively.
Recently, I met an American leftist academic who was outraged because the current administration had cut the federal personnel budget for welfare and unemployment in his area.
Just a modicum of research revealed that over the last two years, unemployment in his town had decreased by 78% ! He didn’t seem to be able to grasp the concept that people with a job, don’t need government unemployment welfare.
I was amused by his lack of ironical awareness, when he gloomily complained ” this sort of thing wouldn’t have happened if we still had Obama”!
Craig,
As you are probably aware, a General Election for Federal Government of Australia was held on Saturday the 18th May.
The contest was between the Australian Centre-Right Liberal-National coalition and Leftist-Green parties.
The Left-Green ran on a far more socialist platform than usual, as they believed the Centre-right government parties had been weakened by serious philosophical and leadership infighting over the past few years.
It was obvious the Australian people had grown weary of endless political coups taking place for leadership of the coalition parties, and it was assumed the new conservative leader hadn’t been Prime Minister long enough to win public confidence.
It seemed to the Green-Left, and most media organizations, the nation was ready to conduct a “climate change” election, along with many other socialist leaning platforms.
The green-left was also assured of massive financial support from the “GetUp! organization, which funded a very underhanded and exceedingly dirty campaign against targeted conservative candidates.
The conservatives received support from an eccentric political party run by a notorious mining billionaire.
Curiously, despite heavy spending, neither of these organizations had any significant effect at all, very noisy, but their efforts had only marginal effect.
Victory for the Centre-right government is a welcome repudiation by the electorate of idealistic, poorly conceived “climate change” policy initiatives along with a very strong rejection for a “social revolution”.
The election result is a personal triumph for the Prime Minister who is recognized as a somewhat likeable, prudent, hardworking, moderate, responsible leader with commonsense values.
The election has also seen the defeat of various factions within the Prime Minister’s party. Most of the ideologically driven, disruptive political personalities were either defeated, or retired as a result of the election process, leaving the PM in a very strong and stable position.
All the major polls predicted a Labour/Left-Green victory, and the surprise win by the government is an excellent example of how inaccurate polling methods have become in recent years.
The Australian electorate remains interested in combating the adverse effects of Climate Change, but needs to be convinced by sensible, well-thought-out, rational, objectives plans, not wild-eyed alarmist rhetoric, concealing a socialist agenda.
We are entering a new era of pragmatism, commonsense environmental governance. Even among the young, economic and practical issues are starting to take precedence over passion, “symbolic idealism” and “moral superiority”.
Taxpayers are willing to fund climate change mitigation, but only if convinced the policies areobjective and responsible.
Reading the account of the election in the NYT times, it was impossible to recognize Australia or Australian issues in the highly inaccurate narrative.
Issues concerning Donald Trump or any foreign issues simply didn’t surface, the electorate voted on purely domestic issues and choices.
The return of centrist political governance is a welcome change.
The Australian government has taken careful notice of the peoples concerns, and will soon commence enacting clear, practical, objective climate change mitigation policies and actions. The government will rigorously examine, evaluate and explain its preference for each technology and policy for public discussion and scrutiny.
The rejection of “panic policies’ and ideologically driven fiascos, will prove very popular with the majority of Australians, while true environmentalists can take heart at government encouragement for environmental innovation and initiatives.
(I must declare my own political involvement in this election, as I served as an organizer, advisor in support of the government coalition).