Wells, Wires, and Wheels
That’s the title of a recent report from French-based global banking group BNP Paribas, predicting the end of the oil industry. It’s discussed here, where the author explains why he believes that solar, wind and EVs will be the death of petroleum .
This all sounds great on paper. Yes, the blend of solar, wind and electric vehicles can deliver more than six times the “mobility” returns on each dollar invested than oil. This is because of the plummeting costs of renewable energy and the gross inefficiencies of crude-based transportation, meaning a combination of the literal heat-loss associated with internal combustion engines and the capital inefficiency of oil and gas exploration, extraction, transportation, refinement, and distribution.
But if this in and of itself is enough to put a spear through the oil companies, it would have happened already. This is a slow and murky process, not something that flips like a switch.
Fortunately, the economic arguments are starting to be augmented by moral ones. What we’re seeing right now is a slowly expanding interest in dealing with climate change and other pieces of long-term environmental collapse. Of course, we’re also seeing an offsetting expansion of the oil companies’ iron-clad grasp of our law-making process; in fact, we have an entire administration in Washington that’s ripping out as much environmental regulation as it can get its filthy hands on.
In sum: this will take time. Yes, it’s time we don’t have, but it’s time nonetheless.
Craig,
I endorse your cautious appraisal of the report by Mark Lewis, of BNP Paribas Asset Management.
Consistent with a stellar corporate career in corporate “environmental” think tanks, Mark’s excellent qualifications in Modern Languages and philosophy are displayed in this extremely well constructed academic paper.
I hesitate to criticize Mark since I have no idea as to the original brief he was given. Mark is an extremely bright, charming individual and very sincere.
That being said, his report is based on a series of assumptions lacking any practical, commercial or even objective evidence.
Mark’s report stars with an assumption, then works hard to fit only those facts that suit the original premise he is trying to establish. By omitting inconvenient information and anomalies, he can, with much detail, charts, graphs and minutia, reach the conclusion he set out to establish.
Mark is very much the product of the educational institutions he attended. His employer, BNP, is heavily invested in the Wind and Solar industries. There’s nothing wrong with that, except those who read this report should be aware the institution paying for the report has a vested interest.
Craig, this has been the problem for all “green” advocates (including your yourself). In a passionate desire to “further the cause” you grow frustrated when you discover your theories(beliefs) are not accepted or disputed.
Unfortunately, most advocates instead of going back to the drawing board and reassessing their own stance, double down on advocacy.
In their frustration advocates blame mysterious Troll’s, evil machinations by sinister forces, stupid voters(deplorables) or conspirators of one description or another. Anyone, rather than just admit the fault may lie in their own reasoning.
Giles Parkinson is another of those converts who has become an erudite campaigner for wind and solar. After spending 25 years working as a journalist and editorial management staff of a major news group, Giles found himself ‘let go’ a casualty of the demise of print media.
Giles, who is a very good journalist, now writes for leftist websites and his own blogs. He is excellent and entertaining reading.
Again, Giles is a convert. Try as he may (and I’m sure he tries) his articles all suffer due to his enthusiastic advocacy overwhelming his objectivity.
I guess it’s impossible to persuade passionate advocates to calm down and be more objective and pragmatic, (but it would sure help their blood pressure),
Passionate ardor is all very well, and in many ways commendable.
However, such passion can also be divisive and counter-productive. The perfect becomes the enemy of the merely good. Failed projects and grand experiments, (especially those involving taxpayer funding) alienate the general public and make adoption more difficult.
Both Wind and Solar will play a role in the energy generation mix of the future. How large a role will be determined by many factors not encompassed by these sorts of reports.
The role of oil and gas as transport fuel will diminish as the demand for non-fuel oil products increases. The future of EV transport will increase although ESD remains a problem limiting growth.
The growth of Clean(er)Coal and advanced nuclear (possibly Thorium) technology with increase, especially in countries rapidly industrializing.
Over the next decade we will start to see so many bright young people graduating from academic institutions full of passion and enthusiasm and equipped with their newly minted degrees in “environmental studies” and similar qualifications.
It will be tragic to the disillusionment of these graduates when they discover their qualifications are not only useless outside of government employment or academia.
They will inevitably drift into journalism or leftist politics in the hope of recreating the dream, but the world will have moved on and they will become just noisy marginalized faded idealists .
Those who stayed with science, engineering, technology, etc, will be part of an exciting evolution as whole new industries emerge, especially in clean tech.
Reports such as BNP’s Wells Wires and Wheels will join those hundreds of super-optimistic reports advocating ethanol, as historic curiosities.