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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketObviously, the gating factor to the electric transportation industry is battery technology. Yet costs are falling and energy density is increasing, and I think we all have the sense that the battery packs that we see in the EVs of today will look pretty ridiculous in a few years due to steady improvements in technology.

Making this whole area even more interesting are the battery management systems (BMS) that are required to control the charging and discharging of today’s cutting edge lithium ion batteries. The various lithium chemistries, e.g., lithium iron phosphate, offer a huge range of advantages over lead acid (small in size and weight, flat discharge curve, etc.) but are quite sensitive and often simply fail to perform in real-world applications. A state-of-the-art BMS, like the one offered by our client Lithium Balance, is really the only way to guarantee any degree of reliability from a lithium ion battery pack. 

I spoke with Lorne Hatchard of Los Angeles-based Li-ion battery supplier POWERFORCE just now, who explained that his company is attempting to develop its own BMS, and that its products are built at a variety of facilities in Asia, imported, and then triple-checked to ensure that they perform to their specifications.

Again, energy density (the amount of energy that can be stored per unit of volume or mass) is a central issue. And from what I’m reading, it looks like breakthroughs in lithium battery chemistry will continue for some period of time, since:

Lithium, the lightest of the metals, also has the highest standard potential of all the metals, at over 3 V — some of the lithium cell designs have a voltage of nearly 4 V.

Where, as a metal, lithium reacts violently with water, as well as with nitrogen in air, this is not the case with many lithium compounds – thus the name lithium ion.

Energy density and current-carrying capacity are functions of surface area, and, because lithium ions are no small, there are advanced ways of increasing surface area, versus simple flat plates. In particular, the battery terminals can be made from graphite (a layered crystal) into which certain lithium compounds are “intercalated.”  While I had POWERFORCE on the phone, I asked one of its engineers to explain this further.  He told me that this is based on the concept that small ions like lithium can fit in the spaces in a graphite crystal. Not only that, but these metallic atoms can go farther and force the graphitic planes apart to fit two, three, or more layers of metallic atoms between the carbon sheets. This is a great way this is to store lithium in a battery—the graphite is conductive, dilutes the lithium for safety, is reasonably cheap, and does not allow unwanted crystal structures to form.

Given the number of incredibly bright people who are working on this all over the world (many of them supported by enormous funding), it’s really no surprise we’re seeing a great deal of progress in this arena.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Photovoltaics

Dr. Kelly Truman was good enough to update me on what I have to call a textbook success of the business he started with his partner CEO Chris Gronot.  Solyndra, a venture-capitalized photo-voltaics company, is based in Fremont, CA — and seems to have done essentially everything right.  And that starts with the company’s proprietary PV technology, using cylindrically shaped elements coated with the semiconductor copper indium gallium (di)selenide (or CIGS), which is perfect for large, low-slope roofs, and is targeted mainly to commercial buildings.

There are several features of this technology and its implementation that have come together to form a highly differentiated product that is making a real name for itself around the world in a period of time that is, relative to other similar ventures, unbelievably short. First, because wind blowing through the elements tends to hold the installation on the roof (rather than blow it way) the system can be put in place very easily, quickly, and inexpensively with no penetration of the rooftop itself. Also, CIGS deployed in cylindrical elements results in 25% to 100% more power than conventional thin-film technology installed onto equivalent roofs.

As a business consultant, I’ve lived through dozens of stories of venture-capitalized start-ups, and I have to say that Kelly’s narration of the company’s history makes it sound – to me at least — like one of the smoothest in VC history. The company received its initial venture funding in 2005 and went about the business of building prototypes, working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) which provided the equipment and technology for deposition. Soon the technology was demonstrated, the technical milestones were reached, beta customer feedback was positive – and actually serendipitously helpful; customers would often provide constructive input that none of the principles had thought of — e.g., “Do you realize that this could be used for — (some new application)?”

But the good news goes on: Solyndra took over a facility that Seagate (the hard disk-drive manufacturer) had abandoned when they took their operations overseas, and smoothly completed its third-party testing, validating not only the energy efficiency of its products, but also their seismic and wind readiness. By mid-2008 the first volume customer shipments were coming off the loading docks, and the company has grown in revenue in every subsequent quarter.

Looking for some plot twist or at least some conflict to make this story more interesting, I asked if investors getting antsy for a liquidity event, like an IPO on an acquisition by a publicly traded company. “No,” Kelly says, “They’re wonderfully patient. They know we’re in this to make a real difference against the reality of global warming, and that will require some time for growth. To give you an idea of their patience, we received a nine-figure from the DoE which required us to put up 27%. Even in this financial climate, our investors made sure this happened.”

Kelly Truman and I don’t know one another outside of this one-time encounter, and so I didn’t feel it was my place to ask anything else. When the interview was over, I politely thanked him and hung up. But I have to admit that I was wondering: Do his kids have naturally straight teeth? Are they headed for Ivy League colleges on full academic scholarships? I somehow feel that I want to hang out with Kelly, as he’s obviously doing a great number of things right.

I’m kidding here, of course. What I really mean is this: congratulations.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

PhotobucketSince we at 2GreenEnergy are about to begin interviewing a number of eminent climatologists re: global warming, let me go on record and predict what I believe we will find. I believe there is no way to be certain what elements of global climate change are manmade vs. naturally occurring, since there is no way to model the melting of the ice shelves of western Antarctica, etc.

In my mind, however, this doesn’t imply that there is no connection between human activity and global climate change, and certainly no way to justify continuing to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In fact, I see the opposite imperative – taking all reasonable measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions. My friend Bruce Allen, author and speaker on a number of key environmental issues, points out that in a strange way, the global warming issue is moot, since regardless of the climate change issue, CO2 emissions are undeniably causing of the falling pH of the oceans, a phenomenon which itself is completely unacceptable to people who care about the sustainability of the planet.

If you haven’t listened to the talk that James Woolsey (Venture Partner, VantagePoint Venture Partner; Senior Executive Advisor, Booz Allen Hamilton; Former Director, United States Central Intelligence Agency) recently gave on the issue, I urge you to do so.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Vinod KhoslaI’m in the process of putting the finishing touches on our new report providing business tips to renewable energy companies, one of which I call “Swing for the Fences.”

I note that marginal improvements in functionality, efficiency, etc. are generally not worth forming businesses around — that if you’re going to enter this industry, do something transformative. Though this could be debated in certain industries, where, for instance, reformulations in women’s perfume or soft drinks have the potential to represent big deals. But in renewable energy, the magnitude of the game you’re playing is enormous. To put it in perspective, when the world comes up with a way to capture only 1/6000th of the sun’s power, the energy game will have been won (by the good guys) — now and forever.

In the words of legendary venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who, of course, knows more than a little about the cleantech sector, “Since one fails often, address markets that make it worthwhile when one does succeed.”

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

PhotobucketI’m thrilled to report that I have an interview scheduled with one of the most eminent climatologists on our planet: Veerabhadran Ramanathan at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. I’ll be driving down later this month for a meeting that I’m sure will be among the most memorable moments in my life.

For four decades, Dr. Ramanathan has led innovative research projects involving global climate dynamics, air pollution, and climate mitigation. From a brief summary of his work, it is clear that Ramanathan was among the very first to prove the greenhouse effect of CFCs and numerous other man-made gases, correctly forecasting in 1980 that the global warming due to carbon dioxide would be detectable by the year 2000.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be doing a great deal of reading to prepare me for this interview, and I look forward to publishing a report on the results.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

Coming soon is another free report from 2GreenEnergy, tentatively called 25 Tips for Renewable Energy Businesses. As I began to respond to readers who had called or written in to ask my perspective on business ideas, I realized I was drawing on my experiences as a business consultant – 800+ projects over 25+ years. Trust me, that’s a lot of PowerPoint, crowded conference rooms, trying to remember which suit you wore last time you met with client x, and consolidating air travel to ensure upgrades on the way there and back.

As readers may be aware, I spent the bulk of my career working to increase sales revenues in companies with business-to-business products and services. Most of my work was for the Fortune 100: the IBMs, AT&Ts, and Hewlett-Packards of the world – yet a great deal of it was for smaller companies – even a few dozen venture-capitalized start-ups.

In any case, all this gave me the opportunity to observe real-world business processes, and to gain an understanding of what works – and what doesn’t – in business. I believe, looking back on those days, that some of my experiences will be valuable to those wishing to expand businesses in the renewables sector, and so I offer these as “tips.” Coming soon.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

Clean Energy Robin Murphy, Vice President for External Relations at the World Resources Institute (WRI) was kind enough to spend a few minutes with me yesterday. He explained one of the key missions of this 27 year-old organization: to provide policy-makers and business leaders with objective, high-quality research and advice on environmental issues. What I found most interesting in our talk was his belief that the world – at the top levels of both the public and private sectors – is awakening to a new day of environmental stewardship. As readers know, I waver on this issue, and I may have shocked my guest with my initial skepticism.

Yet, as we talked, I began to see this from his perspective; I was able to gain a position of appreciation for the work that is being done, and develop a reasonable hope that we are, in fact, on the right track.  Robin brought me through WRI’s approach over the last decade, which, in a sentence or two, goes like this: After a variety of projects in the 80s and 90s, the organization spent the years of the Bush Administration patiently waiting, not wasting its manpower, focusing mainly on the state governments and business communities during this dormant period at the federal level. Robin told me, “We let good ideas incubate,” while developing a sense for how the world of energy might go forward under more progressive national leadership.

And now the time has come. “I see a new awakening,” says Murphy. “The USCAP (Climate Action Partnership) is a great example of this. Here you have huge, diverse corporations working hard and with total sincerity. This isn’t easy, but they’re doing it. There are tough decisions that have to be made, and there is an abiding sense that the environment is an issue that is here to stay.” 

I asked Robin for signs by which we can differentiate between real change from lip service.

“Oh, I’ve seen a great deal of candor – for instance, Duke Energy and Alstom both quit the American Coalition for Clean Coal because they didn’t see this as legitimate.  There is huge, tangible change,” he explained. “Business decisions are being delayed and rerouted, as CEOs see legislation and regulation affecting the way they do business.”

“But what do you see driving this?” I asked.

“Is the change altruistic, you mean? Not now; it’s capitalistic. But I also see the worlds of sustainability and commerce converging, as companies find cost-effective ways to change their business practices in the direction of sustainability.”

I told Robin that I’d love to believe this, though I am challenged to take it at face value.

“All I can tell you is that it’s very gratifying to see CAP holding together,” he explained. “It gives me a very good feeling.”

You can ask me what I think on this tomorrow, and I may give you a different answer. But today, I believe that, regardless of the motive, we are all on a rocket-ride toward environmental sensitivity. There are too many people paying attention now for this to go in the wrong direction.  And, as Robin pointed out, the costs of renewables are coming down, and the enormous costs of not shifting are becoming more clear.  Soon, even those who see this purely as a business issue will be on board.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

As I continue to learn and write about the energy industry I feel a growing need for fairness. Anyone can sit on the sidelines and throw stones. And Lord knows, there are plenty of great targets for stones when you look at where the oil and coal companies have taken us over the last century. But here, I provide a brief examination of the need for fairness in reporting on the subject.

In a story that one of my people is preparing on British Petroleum, I see that it’s clear that the company’s ostensible interest in renewables is quickly being displaced by executives’ and shareholders’ demand for profits. Apparently, it has discarded its previous vision of moving toward renewables as suggested by its slogan “Beyond Petroleum” which has been articulated as the organization’s rallying cry since 2000.

BP made profits of $25.6 billion in 2008, up 27% from 2007, but has engaged in vigorous job-cutting and other cost reduction, and, in the process has downgraded renewables to the pint of insignificance. Last April, it closed its solar manufacturing plants in Spain and the U.S. Finally last June, the axe fell on the Alternative Energy unit BPs CEO dismantled its London headquarters.

My researcher wrote that BP is keeping its focus on biofuels, but notes that this is only because that “is in the best interest of BP.”  Here, I wonder if this isn’t a little unfair. Can we really expect BP to do things that aren’t in its interests? Yes, we can expect them to keep their promises, and not deliberately mislead us about their motives and actions. But here I think we’ve touched the very essence of the problem.  As I noted in my post called Bill Moyers and Renewable Energy, the profit motive is the sole reason for the existence of the corporation.

The problem that renewable energy faces is very clear: Insofar as it’s not as profitable as fossil fuels, Big Energy can be counted on to fight it all the way. As a reporter, this is what I expect to find, and I am no more angry when I do find it than I am angry with a compass needle when I find it pointing north – that’s simply what it does. But again, in exchange for this dispassionate approach, I’d like to see some honesty in return. I’d advise the energy industry: don’t spend 75% of your advertising and PR budget convincing us of the philanthropy of your token efforts in renewables. In the end, you’ll come off looking better by telling us the truth.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Fossil Fuels

I just got off the phone with Suzanne Shaw, the Director of Communications at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a 40 year-old non-profit organization headquartered in Boston. I made the call because I wanted an independent read on what I see as a change in public perception about global warming. To me, it seems that for the first time in years, a significant number of people are questioning the theory – and some actually perceive the whole idea is a hoax. Has there truly been some movement here, and if so, how did it happen?

Suzanne denies that there has been a change. “The people who attend to science believe that global climate change is underway, and that it’s largely due to human activity — mainly burning the forests and consuming fossil fuels,” she told me.

“So what I thought I was seeing doesn’t exist?” I asked.

“It is true that the companies in the fossil fuel industries have a vested interest in our continuing to consume these forms of energy; they have mounted powerful political campaigns to convince the public that global warming is not an issue, and to persuade Congress not to act. These campaigns take various forms, for example, the industry has formed allegiances with groups like the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers to tackle the issue from the economic perspective, convincing people that there will be dire consequences of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

“But don’t you find that unconscionable?” I asked.

I could hear a slight, uncomfortable chuckle on the other end of the phone. After a slight pause, she spoke: “Craig, I don’t pretend to see into the hearts and minds of other people. I can speak only for my organization and myself. Let’s just say that all of us here feel an obligation to future generations, to ensure that our children and our children’s children can enjoy a reasonable quality of life.”

“But let me ask you about the economic issue you raised. Don’t they have a point, given the financial pressure people find themselves under?” I asked.

“Ironically, the exact opposite is true.” Suzanne pointed out an article in today’s Wall Street Journalthat attempted to quantify the costs of various directions that could be taken regarding environmental protection. The article quoted a study by The NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity, which asserted that there is a total of $2.27 directly saved from every dollar spent to reduce the activities that contribute to global warming.

There is climate legislation currently in the House. I guess we’ll find out soon how powerful these two positions are.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Politics

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nf3VOT_Guoc&w=425&h=344]

Here’s a quick video on the energy industry vs. renewables. I used Windows Movie Maker; I really like this platform; it’s certainly easier than shooting a video — for me at least. Hope you enjoy.

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