PhotobucketMy association with Bill Paul has provided me with a crash course in what’s happening behind the scenes in the world of alternative energy finance and investment. Yet it’s not hard to see what makes all this so difficult for the average investor: the sheer number of variables; it’s a true moving target. One set of such variables, of course, is the price of competitors’ products – determined, as they are, by a number of different forces – all out of our control: wars, storms, natural disasters, unforeseeable discoveries, decisions to limit or expand oil production, and so forth. Another is the subject of renewables itself – a twisted knot of new technologies, efficiency breakthroughs, discontinuous cost reductions, government subsidies and incentives, and back-office political deal-making.

I was delighted with the turnout at Tuesday’s webinar, and with the great number of the favorable comments we received. This shows me that a large number of people out there find this subject as vitally important as we do here. We’ll try to keep up a regular schedule.

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PhotobucketWhen I was back East earlier in the week, I had the opportunity to speak with Bill Paul on a great number of interesting topics related to our renewable energy field. I happened to mention that the public attitude that surrounds global climate change is a moving target, and I speculated that I knew the essential cause: people tend to react more violently to immediate, close-to-home crises (e.g., their personal financial scene) than they do to those that are more distant — either in space (foreign wars) or in time (global climate change). “Yes,” Bill agreed, “No one has the bandwidth to watch a slow-motion train wreck.” What a good metaphor that is.

I’m reminded of my interview with the man generally credited with the discover of global warming in the early 1970s, Dr. V. Ramanathan, now teaching and conducting ongoing atmospheric research at the Scripps Institution. I asked if he agreed that fewer people believed in his theory now than two or three years ago. “Oh yes,” he replied. “People have a limited amount of space in their heads for crises; they can only hold so many terrifying ideas in place at one time.”

A related idea that I support is one I call “crisis fatigue.” I liken it to the phenomenon in which the nerve cells in our nostrils that process smell soon “tire” of a certain odor stimulus and fail to respond to it completely after a minute or two. It seems that the public — at least in the US — has become numb to the enormity of the threat posed by global climate change.

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I want to thank everyone who attended Tuesday’s webinar with Bill Paul. In his characteristically humble manner, Bill asked me as we were leaving the room if he handled himself well with the questions from the audience and me. Yes, Bill, you were terrific. I apologize, however, for the technical glitches. We’re scheduling another webinar soon, and I promise to have addressed the noise issues and other annoyances.

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It’s amazing how coincidences pile up around us. I’m going into the Alternative Energy Investing webinar with Bill Paul wondering what I should ask him about, and I happen to be looking at yesterday’s Wall Street Journal with its huge and utterly glowing report on shale gas. This got me thinking:

I wonder how objective these people are? Am I just cynical, or do I perceive that there is a reason behind virtually every word in that paper? All I really learn from articles like this is that someone wants me to believe shale gas is a huge game-charger in the energy industry. Perhaps I’m being unfair. Let’s ask Bill and get his opinions.

But aren’t these extraction techniques fantastically unsound ecologically? And does shale gas impact anyone outside the US?

Hope you’ll join us.

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Here’s another post on the EV adoption curve that I put on Renewable Energy World in which I claim that range anxiety will have a smaller-than-predicted effect on EV sales.

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I’m headed for New York later today for a series of meetings — some with people frequently mentioned here.  I’ll be having dinner Monday night on the Upper West Side with Rona Fried, whose SustainableBusiness.com has formed a vibrant partnership with 2GreenEnergy to promote and deliver consulting services.  From there, it’s across the Hudson for Tuesday’s webinar with financial analyst Bill Paul.  Finally, it’s a drive to Boston for a day packed with talks with heavy-hitters in solar.

I’ll give your regards to Broadway.

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Finland reportedly is undertaking a project that will link people’s smart meters with their smart phones. People will be able to save energy and money just by touching their phone screens, which will signal their home meters to, for example, raise or lower the thermostat. People also will be able to share the green power they generate onsite with their neighbors. Just imagine how much faster the world will embrace clean energy if and when young people use their smart phones to encourage their friends to go green.

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PhotobucketBill Paul, with his unique economic perspective on the renewable energy industry, will be featured on a live and totally free webinar, this Tuesday, May 11th at 1 PM EDT (10 AM PDT). Sign up here.

Though my core strenth is not investment banking, I like to think that I’ve learned something through my many discussions with Bill — and I highly recommend your participation — if you’re thinking about taking a serious financial risk in “new energy” (as Bill likes to call it).

Tuesday’s webinar will focus on mergers and acquisitions – in particular, the most likely take-over targets through the remainder of 2010.  As Bill explained it to me, “Big M&A means big transfers of wealth.  The price of a few dozen publicly-traded equities will go through the roof as their deals are contemplated and ultimately consummated.  Others are just about to hit the skids.  Huge fortunes will be are made — or lost.”

I hope I’ve made it clear that his webinar is not for everyone. In particular, I happen to know that a large percentage of the 2GreenEnergy audience has invested most of its net worth in entrepreneurial ventures, and is not sitting around with serious cash to put into speculative ventures right now (like today’s stock market). Thus, I’ll understand if only a few people attend – but I somehow know that they’ll be the right people.  Again, here’s that link.

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Green technologies are adopted first by those who aspire to protect the environment. But who are these people, exactly? What segments are most appropriate for the product or service you’re contemplating? And most importantly, what are your potential customers’ unmet needs – the things to which they aspire for which there is no current solution?

In the 26 years I have known Terry Ribb, she’s impressed me many dozens of times, largely with her innovative approach to developing a profound understanding of customers’ lifestyles. “It’s not about us,” she likes to say. “It’s about them.” In other words, we need to communicate clearly how we can make a real and practical difference in the individual’s workstyle and playstyle.

Contact us to learn more about how we can help you identify early-adopter segments, and design marketing strategies to attract and retain target customers.

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PhotobucketAs I mentioned the other day, I’m trying to “get out more” and blog on other sites. Earlier today, I wrote on EnergyBlogs.com that I foresee a world in which those with a reasonable case for EVs simply buy them, charge them in at night, and enjoy eco-friendly, low-cost daily driving—commuting to work, running errands, etc. Only 22% of Americans drive more than 40 miles per day. The market for EVs in the US is huge — but I see no reason to believe that the EV adoption curve will be so steep as to disrupt service, or require ubiquitous charging solutions.

I’m predicting that the technology at stake here at all levels: batteries — as well as the grid is improving at a rate sufficient to make the advent of mass-produced EVs a non-event.

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