Infinite Growth on a Planet of Finite Size?
What are the good things about living in the 21st Century, and how does it compare, say, with the late 20th? Are people more honest and trustworthy? Is government more transparent and attuned to the needs of the people it serves? Are stress levels lower? Are we safer from nuclear war or environmental collapse? Are our children more affluent? Is leisure time more abundant? Is society more just and harmonious? The answer to all these questions is no.
Yet there is something, one thing, to like about today’s world: technology. Whether we’re talking about medical technology that provides us longer and healthier lives, or communications and IT that makes our lives more informed and enjoyable, that’s really all she wrote.
Think of the boon that the TED Talks offer us. “Ideas worth sharing,” on a platform of fabulous convenience–thousands of amazing insights, originally focused on technology, education and design, and now, everything else from astrophysics to zoology, each a perfectly seasoned, bite-size chunk of wisdom and insight, waiting for the click of our mouse.
My bright, socially-conscious brother Geoff sent me the fabulous TED talk below, in which Kate Raworth, English economist at the University of Oxford and the University of Cambridge, presents her concept of ‘doughnut economics,’ an economic model that balances between essential human needs and planetary limits. Our consumption of resources has an inner boundary below which people are hungry, diseased, impoverished and uneducated. Yet there is an outer boundary as well, past which we have climate change, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity and the breakdown of our ecosystems. Thus we see the folly of infinite growth on a planet of finite size.
Obviously, Raworth isn’t the only social scientist who thinks in these terms; there have been numerous presentations like this through the years, in particular:
• Donella Meadows (“The Limits of Growth”) is usually credited as the mother of the subject.
• Annie Leonard (“The Story of Stuff”), whom I had the pleasure of meeting following a lecture she gave at the University of California at Santa Barbara a year or so back.
• The Bioneers; I hope readers will join me at this year’s conference in Northern California.
As I reminded my brother, if we look more broadly, we see that there are more than 200,000 groups whose purpose is environmental and social justice; that’s a lot of human horsepower. Whenever I read about some horrific trend in our civilization, I try to remind myself of that.
Here’s Kate Raworth:
Thank you for your question Craig and the answer is a resounding yes.
There has never been a better time throughout our history to be alive and a participant and a partner within the unfolding epoch that will be the first, where scientific discoveries and knowledge will predominantly solve all of the important global human existence problems as we know them.
We see it happening now in many scientific endeavours and research, and there is none more important as the “new age foundation science” of energy generation, which I touch on here:
Globally a new sense of urgency has entered discussions regarding the technological imperatives that must be met to massively electrify and industrialize developing nations to modern standards in all ways and means, as well as transition away from fossil fuel generation to a primary non-polluting generation technology that will reduce global GHG emissions to insignificant levels.
This is the critical challenge, and the clock is ticking before runaway GHG effects will become impossible to mitigate with devastating consequences, including the disintegration of global social structures, that will increasingly and through sheer necessity, become the disruptive global society norm.
With emissions rising and the realisation that without drastic action, the world is on a track to precipitate a runaway climate change situation by the end of the century; recognition is growing of the need for a new level of ambition in current efforts to decarbonise and transform the global energy system.
The incumbent primary global fossil fuel (coal) generation technology, as a major contributor to the urgent climate change issues unfolding, has a diminishing future to one of minor significance within about 70 years as a future global generation technology.
Decarbonisation of the industrial, heating, transportation, as well as the development of zero emissions power generation, will be the whole focus of the new frontier age of power generation science this century.
The global renewables sector (across the board) remains fragmented and lacks the capacity for sustained long-term investment and development on a global scale, to massively electrify and industrialize developing nations as well as satisfy the permanent ongoing redevelopment imperatives of developed nations. The global renewables sector, already firmly tracking on the obsolescence pathway, will diminish steadily to minor significance by about 2040.
NANS technology (new age nuclear solutions) being at the apex of power generation science, is the appropriate and practical form of power generation technology that has the exploitable attributes that can satisfy the global energy imperative going forward in perpetuity.
A recap on the key technological attributes that are essential moving global energy generation science forward (in broad terms) are:-
1. Must be an energy dense technology at the apex of the energy science pyramid, and be able to deliver massive, safe, clean and low-cost energy in perpetuity;
2. Replace all other forms of inefficient and polluting energy generation sources globally, and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to insignificant levels permanently;
3. Be modular and scalable and easily deployed cost effectively to power new age energy intensive technologies, industries and businesses;
4. Be available through modular design to cost effectively benefit all people throughout the world effectively and decisively.
Lawrence Coomber
Lawrence it was hot here today in far West Tx.
Relax and get online and it is a real positive to read your finely worded Energy Futures so that mankind can survive by turning things around. Decarbonizr our global economy and use smart technologies and fine tuned processesso that we can harness technologies in a productive energy density thatbis sustainable.
You have akways posted good thoughts and even where there are differences but not barriers.
Lawrence you big view is right on. We need to harness cleaner btu s in to all sectors especially food.
All forecast have natural variance s.
So glad to hear you say coal gone but it needs to happen much sooner. Dont think we can avoid climate shock burning cosl that long f 70 years. There will be too much damage in my view.
Sounding off Shame on people of Aussie land for not supporting better leaders and more sustainable plans
The Carmicheal coal mine expansion in Queensland with its high environmrntal footprint and allowing the Adani group to exploit Aussie land and then pollute his nation in carbon bondage thus offsetting the progress that Indias solar wind nuclear production was making reducing GHG. This dark project and its dark and it is in complete conflict with the type of steady state economy which the wonderful Ted talk that Craig shared. That English economist donut economy makes so much sense. Her concepts are challenging to integrate into a socio economic system chained to short term outcomes but leaves us all with long term losses and damages.
Yes I blame the political leadership for not developing meaningful employment options other than extraction and export of carbon on the scale which Aussie land does.
The project is darker than the colr of the coal as Indian President Modi subsidizes Adanis coal plants to the tune of 1.5 Billion for two new coal plants that burn Aussie coal.
Adani gets propped up w lits of cash. The police move poor subsistence farmers off their land. Banishingnthem to further poverty. Same with thr fisherman who fish in soot and pollution of Adanis west coast plants.
Adani is given seed money to build a new plant in NE India , first the local residents are forcibly removed by Modi s goon police.then big walls built around coal plant. The irony of this socialize the costs and privatize the profits project is that all the power goes to Bangla desh a export plant.
More Irony is that India has over capacity in coal.
But the connected profit and bvbearth burns.
So good sir this system needs to be disrupted.
Maybe with some creative engineering Aussie could try to slow cook coal insitu and extract the syngas and blend into your gas export system. I confess I only know of concept but dont know if it is technically doable.
But in the Spirit of your fine essay we need creativity and syn gas supports RE performance gaps.
Don t mean to bash Aussie land but challenge you folks to get off the old worn out model that the English economist pointed out. Thats my real point.
To be fair I point to our prolific Permian basin oil and gas.
Shortages of gas pipelines and weak Texas rules as they are addicted to severance tax revenues so no regulations are enforced re Flaring.
This year there are months where 653 million cubic ft of gas is just
burned off. The unofficial value of this flared gas is $ 4.5 to $ 5 Billion worth. Sarcastically it just goes to show you that oil co’s making so much money they can afford to Burn it. TEXAS IS NOW THE 4TH BIGGEST FLARING area in WORLD.
A disgrace on many levels .
3 pipelines being built eill reduce this by 75 % in 18 to 24 months.
So there is hope.
Once again if enlightened public and private iniatives were developed a creative financing plan could be in place so that both gathering line and pipeline capacity grew in a modular fashion. The flaring and pollution would be greatly reduced.
But our economic system based on shirt term everything is a Barrier to Sustainability.the donut model again.
Back to your desire for more power density.
Lawrence you should be pleased that Nu Scale has passed most of NRC Permits and may break ground at Idaho Nat labs with DOE 50 Meg unit with Utah and Idaho Cooperatives taking power. This project if it goes forward will result in closing the last 3 coal plants once additional modules are built.so we pushing coal off
grid much sooner than 70 years.
All 6 Wyoming Mining Co. Are now in bankruptcy.
The scoreboard for coal in West of Rockies is going to be only 4 plants left w their death sentence pending.
4 other big ones closing
in 2 years.
By 2030 will be ZERO Coal surrounded by idling coal mines.
So the SMR and these coal
closings are very Bright Markers in respect to your essay Lawrence.
Progress. Much more needed.
We getting 700 megs of tracking solar w battery storage for $.036 cents per KWHR ALL IN Cheapest gas is $ .064 per Kwhr. So dont discount RE done right it will be major source of clean generation.
The bright lights aside in our stories my sense of things leads mento agree completely with Craig and his bnintro. All the things he listed the negatives Craig is right. He is not pretending to the end . Being Real.trust this missive causes some to reflect. Best to all thank you Craig.
Hi Silent,
You still seem obsessed by the Obama era war on coal!
I realize you have a vested interest in the Solar industry and therefore you enthusiasm for solar is understandable.
In most Western nation where natural gas is abundant, investment in Coal fired technology has dropped dramatically.
The unpopularity of Coal for investors has been largely due to the sudden and dramatic lowering of prices for newly abundant natural gas. Another factor has been the enormous taxpayer subsidies and regulatory befits for “renewable ” power generation technology.
The support of “renewable” power has been driven largely by passionate political activism not sensible planning or objective analytical assessment.
Except in certain favorable locations, both Wind and Solar have proved failures at generating “power on demand” for industrial scale energy generation.
In my home State of Victoria, Australia, the disinvestment in coal fired infrastructure has left the State, previously a major coal producer, in a parlous position.
From being a state which once exported energy, Victoria is now witnessing an explosion in energy prices while the Australian Energy Market operator advises the state will suffer blackouts and shortages, forcing restrictions on usage as the elderly grid struggles to cope with a lack of Coal fired generation.
Victoria, more than any other state, invested heavily in Wind and Solar. The result is a dismal failure forcing the re-opening of shuttered, mothballed coal fired plants, way past obsolescence.
Meanwhile, in India, China, South Korea and Japan, Coal fired power generation is undergoing a huge change in technology. These new innovations have eliminated climate change emissions, and produced a wide range of valuable by products produced by a new generation of coal-fired power plants .
The transformation has been speedy and remarkable. In Asia and Africa this technology has attracted enormous capital investment with China rolling out more than 1500 new Ultra Critical super Coal plants over the next 6 years worldwide.
What’s especially annoying for many Australians, is a large proportion of these exciting innovations were researched and developed in Australia but due to a lack of investment and political support were commercialized in Asia.
But here’s a question for you?
Tell me where in the USA is a single recycling plant capable of safely dismantling obsolete solar panels ?
Just to help you out, California has no plan for disposal, let alone recycle!
According to federal data,solar panels significantly increases emissions of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), which is 17,200 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas over a 100 year time period. NF3 emissions increased by 1,057 percent over the last 25 years. In comparison, US carbon dioxide emissions only increased by about 5 percent during that same time period.
NF3 emissions are only one of 28 highly dangerous and toxic material contained in obsolete solar panels.
When Abound Solar Inc went bankrupt in Colorado, it left behind a toxic mess of carcinogens, broken glass, and contaminated water.
Despite having received hundreds of millions of dollars in federal loan and guarantees from the Obama administration, the taxpayers have been forced to pay another $13.7 million to clean and repair the building so it can again be leased.
That’s on top of the $11 million (and growing) bill for cleaning up the contaminated water supply. (there’s a school locates within two blocks sharing the same water).
Need more ? Oh, how about SOLOPOWER Inc in Oregon?
This solar panel manufacturer again ended with a shattered factory, hundreds of million millions of tax payers, and creditors dollars lost, and a heavily polluted manufacturing site.
Although the county had the legal right to seize the plant’s equipment for delinquent taxes, it’s unlikely to do so because the plant is so heavily polluted with cadmium, hydroelectric acid and all sorts of nasty substances.
Cleaning up the site is estimated to run into tens of millions.
Imagine Craig’s outrage if these were Coal facilities!
Yet, on these environmental disasters, he remains strangely silent!
I suppose I must admit to a certain degree of hypocrisy myself !
This week I just ordered a very large number of solar tile to replace the roof of my country home. The pitched roofing required Solar tiles to cover more than 6000 square feet in order to retain historic aesthetics and aspects of the roof’s appearance.
When estimating the cost of the project, I took advantage of every government subsidy, tax credit and grant available which helped reduce the price considerably.
Although tiles are superior to panels(especially cheap Chinese panels) they are still difficult to dispose of safely.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates there is about 1, 250,000 metric tonnes of solar panel waste in the world being sent to third world nations, landfills or dumped in the ocean. IRENA projected this will exceed 178 million tonnes by 2030.
Most optimistic information about Solar panel recycling is woefully optimistic, inaccurate or just plain lies.
The vast majority of panels contain lead, cadmium etc,along with a a wide range of other toxic chemicals that cannot be removed without breaking apart the entire panel.
As San Jose State environmental studies professor, Dustin Mulvaney observed “Approximately 90% of most PV modules are made up of glass, however, this glass often cannot be recycled as float glass due to impurities. Common problematic impurities in glass include plastics, lead, cadmium and antimony.”
In California the once proud “green” residents of Fawn Lake in Virginia, where a 6,350 acre solar farm to partly power Microsoft data centers was being proposed, were startled to learn, cadmium can be washed out of solar modules by rainwater.
The residents became alarmed when informed by an environmental lawyer the solar farm contained more than 100,000 pounds of cadmium in the 1.8 million panels.
Although loud on abuse and vilification, the supporters of the Solar plant could deny that leaching from broken panels damaged during natural events, hail storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. or just natural aging wouldn’t occur.
Of even greater concern was when they learned that is just 0.05% of the toxic substances leeched into the ground water, it would be sufficient to render the town uninhabitable for over 200 years!
(makes fracking look pretty safe, eh ?)
Okay, that doesn’t mean technology can’t be found to solve the pollution problems associated with Solar Panel construction and disposal.
What it does mean, is you shouldn’t be so one-eyed when it comes to technology.
The problem of never acknowledging and evaluating accurately and objectively the good and bad aspects of all technologies, is you wind up like Craig.
Craig has become a sort of cheer leader for technologies that fit into his ideological prism. He’s entered an “alternate reality”.
We all have our preferences, but they shouldn’t make us blind.
Hi Lawrence,
Thank you for your well thought out comments.
Essentially the are two views on the future of the environment and technology.
The first group are basically anti-human and anti-practical technology. These people view the future through a prism of political ideology.
They are uninterested practical solutions or merely useful technology. Their political agenda insists on ideology instead of reality.
The second group, (to which I hope you and I belong) see the future far more optimistically. We assess all technology in terms of effectiveness and practicality.
If coal or uranium has downsides, we concentrate on developing technology to eliminate the downsides while retaining the benefits.
We don’t just recklessly eliminate whole industries without a practical alternative. Nor do we demand “social revolution” to adapt society to suit hopelessly inadequate technologies solely in order to fulfill the dictates of some poorly thought out political ideology.
We trust human aspirations and the desire of all humans to live more prosperous lives.
If coal causes emission problems, we don’t demand the abolition of the coal industry leaving millions trapped in poverty and condemned to live miserable lives.
We simply invent new technology to eliminate the harmful emission and better still convert those previously harmful emissions to valuable by-products capable of further reducing emissions in other industrial products, thereby enhancing the environment.
We are flexible thinkers, not bound as disciples any doctrine or agenda.
There are so many new and exciting technologies being developed in every aspect of human endeavor. Trying to limit human expansion of knowledge and aspiration is futile and impractical.
Nihilistic, pessimistic philosophers and pundits will always exist, bleating on endlessly about how wicked is mankind.
They are just background static!
Keep up the good work!
The book entitled “BURN” is about using “Fire to Cool the Earth” and in my view confirms marcopolo – who it seems is afraid to reveal his identity – is only good for spouting his BS – while the book BURN also confirms I have been right all along in its well documented 300 pages even if marcopolo and Craig prefers to ignore the obvious truth to what my position has been all along.
BURN is authored by Albert Bates and Kathleen Draper. It’s a very valuable publication in these final years of humanity’s time on Earth. The fact is it points the way to our salvation if we but know what to do to control our induced global warming and climate change. This book explains how biomass and wastes can not only be used to back up wind and solar but can extract Co2 from the atmosphere and store it in multiple ways. I’m Les Blevins and I understand what we need to do and I’ve known about the truth in the findings in BURN for well over two decades, and I’ve invented and developed a novel new concept in biomass and waste-to-energy technology, and I’ve researched and developed and improved it further to enable Net-Zero and Negative Emissions Energy and thus enable empowering global human salvation.
Search Google.com or search Facebook for Advanced Alternative Energy – or go to my firm’s website at aaecorp.com and email me for more info.
“We’re the first generation to feel the impact of climate change, and we’re the last generation that can do something about it. We only get one planet. There’s no Plan B.” ~ President Barack Obama
“Humanity has pushed the world’s climate system to the brink, leaving itself only scant time to act. We are at about five minutes before midnight.” ~Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013
To change the world, we need to combine Ancient Wisdom with New Technologies
~ Paulo Coelheo (Warrior of the light)
A good Anthropocene demands that humans use their growing
social, economic, and technological powers to make life better
for people, stabilize the climate, and protect the natural world.
~ECO-MODERNIST MANIFESTO
“Our inventions are wont to be pretty toys, which distract our attention from serious things. They are but improved means to an unimproved end.” ~Henry David Thoreau
“This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it.” ~Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882
“We are in danger of destroying ourselves by our greed and stupidity.
We cannot remain looking inwards at ourselves on a small and increasingly polluted and overcrowded planet.” ~Stephen Hawking