Peak Oil Didn’t Happen, But….
From this week’s newsletter from the American Energy Society:Conventional oil discoveries have been declining; however, there were three large oil discoveries in 2019:
- Russia – 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) in the Arctic Kara Sea.
- Guyana: – 6 Bboe in the Stabroek Block, the first major discovery in Guyana. (To put this discovery into perspective, this is one barrel of oil for every person in Guyana every day – pop. 750,000).
- Cyprus: The discovery is so large, Turkey has started sending its own drill ships to the region.
Ironically, the first chapter of my first book (Renewable Energy–Facts and Fantasies) covered the subject of “peak oil,” the notion that oil exploration and extraction had peaked and would steadily fall until demand for the commodity was so low that our civilization stopped using it entirely. Nine years later, we see that this didn’t happen.
Having said this, demand is falling in the developed world, and will continue to do so as we electrify transportation.
What the end-game is for Big Oil remains to be seen. They are not going away quietly, and are employing all the tools at their disposal, legal or illegal, right or immoral, to stay relevant as long as possible.
Craig,
What a sad and forlorn little plea to avoid apologizing for all your strident “peak oil” advocacy.
I too once accepted M. King Hubbert’s theory of “Peak Oil”. Iwas one of the founding contributors to The Oil Drum, a website published by the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future. (a Colorado non-profit corporation) The Oil Drum was devoted to analysis and discussion of energy and its impact on society.
From 2005 to 2013 the website received support from over 100,000 readers and subscribers but as time went by, it became obvious that a revolution in exploration, exploitation and management technology was taking place, largely led by Exxon, and the concept of “Peak Oil’ became just another false prediction.
The difference between us is I can admit my errors and move on. I can admit Rex Tillerson was right and we were all wrong!
But, then I have the advantage of not being and ideologue, or “true believer”. Being pragmatic and objective allows be to admit errors and remain tolerant of dissenting opinions.
As long as oil companies can really on consumers like you to continue filling their gas tanks, there will always be demand!
Oh, those wicked oil companies “forcing” you against your will to drive past the GM, Ford , BMW, Nissan, Honda, Volvo and Tesla EV showrooms, to fill up at your local gas station!
Man up (as they say) accept responsibility for your own actions, stop blaming others for you own faults.