Predicting the Future in Energy Policy — Thanks to Survey Respondents
My thanks to everyone who has participated in the recent 2GreenEnergy survey. I note that Dr. David Doty, one of the greatest intellects I’ve ever run across, boldly predicted the following for the coming five years:
Oil, coal, and gas will steadily become more expensive at a mean rate of ~20%/year. EVs will have negligible impact on oil usage – for decades.
Global economic growth will still continue at a rate of ~2%/yr, and inflation in the U.S. will remain low.
The gap between the rich and the poor will continue to widen. It will take 10-12 more years of this before something close to revolution (major rioting) comes to the U.S. We will not see another period of sustained strong growth in the U.S. until several years after that happens.
We will not see serious and effective commitment to reduced CO2 emissions until after we’ve seen several years of strong economic growth.
Much of what you’ve written here is so counter to most people’s thinking — not to say that this means it’s wrong. 20% CAGR? (more…)