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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

In response to my complaint about Deloitte’s recent market research study on electric vehicles in which it was clear (to me at least) that they had surveyed irrelevant people as thus missed the mark with their conclusions, a gentleman named Gus wrote:

I believe that the comment “…the same critical mistake that most people do: survey the wrong people…” is at the root of the problem. Who are the right people then? Only the ones who think the way we do?

This is an astute comment. I’m not saying that these “irrelevant” people are not fine human beings. My mother, for instance, is a kind, intelligent and loving woman. But I can assure you, insofar as she’s extremely unlikely to by an electric vehicle – now or ever — any research process that included her opinion on the subject would be, to that degree, misguided.

The reason I regard your comment as astute is that it highlights one of the true art-forms that lies at the base of all good research: walking the tightrope of assumptions. When we assume too little, we wind up with soup – with generalized garbage that does not point the way to answers. Conversely, if we assume too much, we prove little more than we’ve already assumed, and we wind up with equally useless circular logic, e.g., More than 90% of all qualified homebuyers are those with both the current willingness and the ability to purchase a dwelling.

Market research looks easy — until you try it yourself. There are many ways to ruin a project — and until you make some of those errors and learn from your mistakes, it’s really not a piece of cake.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketThe other day, Nissan began construction of a 1.3 million square-foot manufacturing facility in Smyrna, Tennessee that will produce the lithium-ion batteries to power its LEAF – slated for US production in 2012.

I’ll be very happy when I can formally eat the words I’ve been writing these past few years – words to the effect that the OEMs – due to their lack of real incentive to put EVs on the road – are very likely to dawdle and continue to spew a never-ending stream of excuses why production quantities of EVs are impossible. I know that Mark Perry (Nissan’s North American director of EV and Advanced Technology), whom I’ve met a few times, was clearly miffed with me last fall when I expressed some level of skepticism about the effort. “I thought you were paying attention,” he said. Mark, that’s not the issue. I am paying attention; trust me.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketThanks for your comments on my pieces on Deloitte and the dubious validity of its EV-related research. Perhaps the real issue is actually something that I’ve seen quite often in research efforts: proving what they’ve already assumed. Also known as circular logic, begging the question, or as the Latin scholars would say, “petitio principii,” it’s parodied here in an episode of the old sit-com Happy Days:

Fonzie: I know for a fact that she’s a virgin.
Richie: How do you know?
Fonzie: She told me.
Richie: How do you know she wasn’t lying?
Fonzie: Simple. Virgins don’t lie.

It seems funny here, but applying it in business can be lethal — and it’s a very easy trap into which to fall.  If you’re trying to prove that a strong market exists for a certain product, there is almost always a way to construct a research effort that will bear that out. Conversely, studies that take a step back and attempt quantify markets honestly and accurately are not as common as one may think.

The case here — research concerning EVs — is particularly susceptible to this frailty.  A guy called me from New York City yesterday wanting me to nail down the projected penetration of EVs in Manhattan by 2015. There are methodologies that will provide some level of insight in the direction of that figure, but, obviously, they’re not at all precise. (If you want to know more about how we will be cracking that nut, please feel free to write or call.) In any case, you can rest assured that our approach will not be to make some assumption and back our way into proving it’s correct.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

PhotobucketAre you familiar with the concept of a temper tank?  During the winter in most parts of the US, hot water heaters take water out of the ice-cold pipes and heat it approximately degrees 50 F – in the summer maybe 30 degrees. Now, image an indoor holding tank, which preheats the water to room temperature before it enters the heater, greatly reducing the amount of energy required by the heater. In the summer, this preheating occurs completely free of charge. In the winter, some of this heating process is performed with the energy you use to heat your house – but keep in mind that home heating systems are generally far more efficient than hot water heaters. The net is a considerable savings in overall energy use.

Now obviously, there are low-end and high-end approached to this idea. If you want to explore something that I think is truly state of the art, check out Integrity Water Solutions.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Science

Please check out this video by David Serada, a friend of a friend, offering a natural way to bioremediate the oil slick in the Gulf with waste fibers from cotton waste fibers.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

What do you know about car sharing? You know – the idea that your life circumstances may require you to have access to a car as needed, yet they may make it supremely impractical to own one. 

Take a moment and add up the annual cost of your car: the payments, the depreciation, the maintenance, the insurance – plus the aggravation of parking – and then compare that cost to the actual number of hours per year you actually need the car.  Might you be better off to rent one online on an as-needed basis, pick it up from any of hundreds of convenient local parking spaces, and later drop it off essentially wherever you want — rather than owning a car — and paying for it — 24 hours a day, 365 days a year?
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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

As public anger over the Gulf oil spill mounts, a new report from CERA finds that the U.S.’s single biggest source of imported oil in 2010 will be Canadian tar sands oil. Tar sands oil production causes truly horrible pollution. Could this be the start of a genuine environmental revolution in the U.S.?

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketIt looks like Deloitte Consulting has taken another stab at predicting the EV adoption curve – this time pointing out a comparison to the long consumer acceptance cycle of the common clothes washer. Deloitte cleverly notes that 80 years were required to reach 80% of households in America. From this they suggest that electric cars will follow a similar long, slow, shallow growth curve.

I suppose, depending on the comparison you choose, one could suggest essentially any adoption curve at all. As I recall, people had a tough time selling LP records and turntables within about a microsecond of the advent of the CD. And we sure snapped up those cell phones in one hell of a hurry. On the other hand, mankind had footwear for many thousands of years before the introduction of the left and right shoe in the Nineteeth Century (that’s true, btw).

But one wonders: why did Deloitte choose to make a comparison to a technology that – due to a combination of unusual factors almost a century ago – was slow to take root? Who’s being served by this? Can anyone possibly think that this is a fairminded and sensible report?

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Electric Vehicles

PhotobucketAbhishek writes in:

“… electric vehicle startups require large amounts of capital to go into production. The continuous need for large capital infusions makes partnerships with established companies with large balance sheets essential. I think some of these ventures would eventually be absorbed by the Hondas and Toyotas of the world.”

Good points, Abhishek — thanks for writing in. And yes, you’re right that a great deal of consolidation is in the cards. But I guess I always thought there was a place for the start-up EV manufacturer — but so far there has been essentially nothing but carnage.

I’m wondering what’s behind all this failure. I’m reminded of the numerous “Plug In” conferences I’ve attended, expecting a feeling of exuberance in the air — but instead sensing a kind of dread. And that dread is simply what you’re talking about: the fear that the big guys will do this at their leisure — and then crush the start-ups like so many grapes.

Having said this, we need to acknowledge that starting a car business from scratch is a lofty endeavor. I’m amazed to see that CODA just raised $58 million in series-C money. Those are some bold investors, I can tell you that.

If I were giving advice, I’d suggest aiming for a niche. Compete in a space that is well-defined – probably one that is too small to receive the attention of the large OEMs.

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by Craig ShieldsPosted on Posted in Renewables - Business

PhotobucketIt’s always gratifying to receive notes of appreciation for what we do here at 2GreenEnergy. A reader from Kenya writes:

Hi, and thank you so much for the information you have been sending my way. It is incredibly difficult to find current opportunities in green energy and or finance in Africa — let alone my country.

I am currently a law student at the University of Nairobi but the field of carbon trading, renewable energy and offset trading is my real career interest. I also serve in the Law Journal at my campus and we are working on an environmental law journal.

Once again thank you for the information. It is like a cool rain in the desert.

“A cool rain in the desert.” I have to say that I like that a lot.

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