Needed: “Goldilocks” Approach to Renewables
Obviously, the world cannot simply turn off its fossil fuel-based power plants overnight. What can and must happen, however, is that each country take an inventory of its energy situation: current grid-mix, renewable resources, unemployed labor force, national wealth and credit standing, etc., and develop a realistic plan to migrate toward clean energy and transportation within a sensible time-frame.
Apparently, Germany’s rapid adoption of renewables, with its huge feed-in tariff for solar, is causing a backlash from consumers, angry about power prices. Having said that, the figures quoted in the article, suggesting that consumers are paying six times what they would on world energy markets, are poppycock (unless the Germans installed their solar panels in the basements). Here’s the latest prediction for the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from different resources; note that renewable energy is quite competitive.
I hope readers will note the macabre cartoon, fitting as it is for Halloween.
Craig,
The LCOE numbers you cited are estimates for the average U.S. installed system in 2018. The wiki author used the DOE’s “annual energy outlook”, which is a nice thing to read if you want a good laugh, but is ALWAYS hopelessly off the mark (It’s rare that they can beat a random number generator with respect to their projections on renewable energy).
The offshore wind is considerably high, and onshore wind is high, and PV and CSP seem high (haven’t looked in quite a while), meanwhile biomass seems low, as does advanced nuclear and hydro, NG is probably centered well.enough – though they’re expecting a far higher price of NG than the general commodities markets are betting on… Coal and “advanced coal” seem about right, but “advanced coal with CCS” seems to be low by ~$100/MWh.
The average U.S. case for solar power will likely be installed in a region that has >6 hours peak sun/day.
Germany is much farther North and much cloudier than the U.S., with very little terrain that could even offer them >4 hours peak sun/day. It’s highly unlikely that even the best cases in Germany will approach our average case, and the average experience that they have had to this point. A good reference can be the same article where you find the French LCOE estimates for solar at 293 euros/MWh (~$400/MWh).
Some renewable options just aren’t a good fit for some countries. The North Sea has some of the best wind in the world, both offshore and near-shore on land. That’s the low hanging fruit… but far north cloudy countries just don’t have solar resources that they can cheaply exploit. That’s fruit high in the tree. That’s what our children will be grasping for, but we should collect the easy stuff so we can develop the resources they’ll need to climb for the hard stuff.