California Setting the Pace
2GreenEnergy super-supporter Cameron Atwood writes: California has mandated all new buses be electric by 2020 and all buses electric by 2040. This move is expected to lower the cost of heavy duty electric vehicles like trucks and tractors. Happy Saturday.
Thanks, Cameron. Here’s another reminder of the importance of California on the world stage; we are quite progressive in pushing cleantech, and what we do here tends to be promulgated elsewhere in the U.S. and around the world.
Electrifying aircraft and heavy terrestrial vehicles is the third and final leg of the race. We’ve already made decent progress at the first two, i.e., phasing out fossil fuels on the grid and light-duty transportation.
Craig,
“Cameron Atwood writes: California has mandated all new buses be electric by 2020 and all buses electric by 2040”
Poor old Cameron, I think he’s been indulging in another legalized product on California, and is now happily ‘ California Dreaming’ ! (Happy Saturday, indeed).
Meanwhile for those of us who still live in the real world, what the Californian Clean Air Regulation Board has actually mandated is totally different.
The Board has set a date, 2019, not 2020, to mandate a transition to “Zero Emission” mass transit vehicles owned by public transport agencies. After that date, any new vehicles purchased will have to be “Zero Emission”.
So it’s 2019, only public transport authorities, not necessarily electric, and even then, only new vehicle purchases.
Eight of the 10 largest transit agencies in the state already operate some zero-emission buses, including battery electric hybrids, CNG, and hydrogen fuel cell alternatives. ( hybrids can qualify under certain exemptions).
The information published on the CARB information sheet can be a little misleading:-.
“Deployment of zero-emission buses is expected to accelerate rapidly in the coming years – from 153 buses today to 1,000 by 2020, based on the number of buses on order or that are otherwise planned for purchase by transit agencies. Altogether, public transit agencies operate about 12,000 buses statewide.
To successfully transition to an all zero-emission bus fleet by 2040, each transit agency will submit a rollout plan under the regulation demonstrating how it plans to purchase clean buses, build out necessary infrastructure and train the required workforce. The rollout plans are due in 2020 for large transit agencies and in 2023 for small agencies.
Agencies will then follow a phased schedule from 2023 until 2029, by which date 100 percent of annual new bus purchases will be zero-emission. To encourage early action, the zero-emission purchase requirement would not start until 2025 if a minimum number of zero-emission bus purchases are made by the end of 2021.”
It took a lot of digging to obtain the actual requirement of the “roll out” requirements, which are complex and highly bureaucratic, but essentially the mandate doesn’t take real effect until 2019.
I built our first two smallish Electric buses way back in 2009, and 2010. I was also a participant/observer at evaluation testing of EV buses in New Zealand, Adelaide and Sydney Australia, London and South Korea.
In 2013 and @015 I was invited to an evaluation of three manufactures in the Peoples Republic of China and also attended a trade fair exclusively for EV Bus makers in the ROC (Taiwan).
Since then, Daimler, Volvo and BYD have been building EV buses with varying success, as well as a plethora of small manufactures. Toyota and Hyundai and several others have produced advanced Hydrogen fuel cell buses which have operated with considerable operational success in American cities.
India has proved to be an interesting new market for PRC manufactures, with one Chinese Coal fired Electricity Plant manufacturers offering a fleet of EV buses as an inducement to build the Plant !
On the surface, for most people not familiar with EV technology an EV bus would appear to be fairly simple to build and operate. Maybe in China, but most of these vehicles are not suitable for western standards of safety, reliability and quality of construction.
Mass transit buses, as opposed to coaches, have the advantage of set schedules, known routes and low speeds. Never the less, these vehicles find factors like gradients, heat, cold, traffic conditions and irregular loads difficult.
These factors only apply to EV, not HEFC or Hybrid technology, so an all electric fleet may prove too much of a challenge in some locations.
California has a total fleet of 119,000 registered buses, about 10% belong to Public Transit Agencies.
The enemy of any EV battery technology is speed, speed of charging, gradients, traffic conditions, and variations in load.
The cost of these vehicles will also be a factor for future governments to consider. So far the tests with EV bus fleets have not been impressive as far as cost and reliability is concerned, but over time that will improve.
CARB boasts of taking the equivalent of 4 million cars of the road, but has yet to explain where, and at what cost, all this surplus energy will be produced ?
California already has very high power costs, and with nearly 60% of the States energy reliant on Natural gas-fired power plants receiving power via pipelines from production regions in the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest, and western Canada.
On the other hand, sunny California has done very well reducing per capita demand, especially with high levels of domestic solar solar panels.
Nevertheless, an all Electric bus fleet will contribute massively to California’s Peak hour consumption, especially when Asian demand for LPG starts to affect natural gas prices. The Price of gas could soar leaving transit authorities needing even grater taxpayer subsidies.
I’m afraid, despite Elon Musk’s enthusiasm, battery technology is insufficient to meet the needs of heavy transport such as large, long distance trucks, tractors etc.
Likewise, the idea of current, or even foreseeable, battery technology delivering the sort of thrust to lift a fully loaded Airbus A380 weighing 1,265,000 pounds, is a fantasy !
“the importance of California on the world stage; we are quite progressive in pushing cleantech, and what we do here tends to be promulgated elsewhere in the U.S. and around the world”.
Perhaps yes, or then again, maybe not ! CARB’s bold, if bureaucratic, move seems to have ignored the reports and warnings from several trials and tests involving EV buses.
Several outlined the level of corruption by reviewers, manufacturers and legislators.
[ http://www.govtech.com/fs/transportation/BYD-Electric-Buses-Face-Mechanical-Problems-in-Southern-California-as-Agencies-Hand-Them-Contracts.html%5D
I’m as eager a anyone to witness the adoption of more EV technology, but I fear a major catastrophe from precipitate action and poor prior planning.
I wish CARB well with this bold initiative, but I fear it’s more likely to all end in tears…..