There are times I think we’re right around the corner from an aggressive path towards clean energy — and other times when it seems that we’re a million miles away. In response to my piece about Abu Dhabi’s strange decision to commission nuclear power plants, AltEnergyStocks Tom Konrad writes:

CSP would be a much better match for air-conditioning driven peaks, and could be “big,” too. But maybe a tiny country like Abu Dhabi does not have enough domestic land for CSP, and aren’t willing to import electricity from a neighboring emirate.

Yes, CSP would be incredible, given the synchronicity with the load, which, as I mentioned, is a whopping 85% air conditioning.  But I’m sure you’re right about the landmass.

And what you say about their not wanting to buy power reminds me of the unique rules, idiosyncrasies, traditions, and hidden relationships that exist in each of the 180+ countries on Earth. Even within our 50 states, there is a daunting number of regional, state and local rules that were put into place to make money for the energy industry, while regulating that industry so consumers didn’t get totally fleeced.

Now enter renewables, with their own set of variables: intermittencies, grid-tie and transmission issues, environmental consequences, suitability for certain kinds of storage, etc. It’s really going to require a whole new set of thinking.  Are we intellectually capable — and honest enough to make all this happen?  It remains to be seen.

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Abu Dhabi is commissioning a new set of nuclear plants for the first time in 2018, that will generate 25% of its power. I find this a bit hard to understand, since it’s happening just as countries like Germany and Italy are decommissioning their nuclear power. Also, Abu Dhabi has huge peaks; their ratio of peak to average load is one of the largest on Earth, due largely to air conditioning, which represents 85% of load — even more surprising for a country that has huge energy needs for water desalination and the petrochemical industry.

Making matters worse, they don’t seem to be able to handle these peak loads too elegantly. It’s not uncommon for transformers to burst into flame, turning people out into the streets to sleep where it’s much cooler when the A/C goes out.  This, in turn, negatively affects production, when people can’t get a good night’s sleep.

Holy cow. 

So, I asked the speaker: “Why on Earth do they want nuclear (that doesn’t scale up and down according to load)?”

“They like ‘big,’” he answered. “They want to make one deal and have a solution – large enough to make it possible for them to crank up their air conditioning so they can show off their furs.”

Wow. I thought we had idiotic extravagances here. It’s quite a world.

One of the things I enjoy most about shows like Storage Week, sitting through many dozens of presentations on energy storage, is the breadth of perspective on the subject of clean energy.  We all know that ultimately, storage is 100% required if we are to achieve the high rates of penetration we’d all like to see.  That, of course, is a function of intermittency – dealing with the fact that the sun shines only during the day, while the wind blows hardest at night, when the demand is at its lowest.  (70% of the total wind energy in California happens at night.)

But here are a few additional ways of looking at storage.  A great deal of attention in managing the electrical grid in any given region is placed on dealing with peak consumption on a daily basis – and especially with the few hours per year that represent the absolute highest peaks that occur during the summer’s hottest afternoons.  But grid managers’ dealings with load fluctuations and resource availability are not occasional incidents.  In one region of the country, the spreadsheet that lists the purchase of “ancillary services,” those that are necessary to provide the precise correct amount of power, has 850,000 rows (i.e., purchases) annually.

Thus, from one important perspective, energy storage solutions compete against gas-fired peaker plants, those facilities that can be ramped up and down very quickly to meet peak demand.  How quickly?  There are places in the US where weather conditions change dramatically and 900 MW of wind goes to 200 MW in half an hour.  And wind is far more predictable than solar, where a cloud can form and blow over a solar field in a matter of minutes.

But another completely different way of looking at storage is finding a home for off-peak energy generation.  As we put more wind into our grid mix, we get more off-peak wind – and thus more curtailment – the condition where wind turbines must be turned off because the power they produce cannot be accommodated.  Curtailment costs wind developers huge sums of money; last year, it represented 5% of the total installed wind capacity.

Yet another viewpoint is demand response.  Utilities pay their customers big bucks (in rate reductions) for the right to cut a certain percentage of power to those customers under peak load conditions.

So, storage provides a great number of different but important benefits.  Yet at the end of the day, the gating factor for storage is essentially political and economic.  Though there is enormous value to having storage on the grid, the question is: Who’s going to pay for it?  In an environment like the one we have in the US, where there are different types of entities that generate, transmit, and distribute the power – each regulated differently, there is no one single entity that can rationally be expected to pay for a solution whose benefits do not accrue solely to that entity.

As one of the speakers here just told me when I confessed how difficult the business issues in this area are so hard for me to grasp, “The politics behind all this is byzantine.  It’s not terrible in Texas, but in places like California, it’s a total mess. Powerful interests have succeeded in pushing through legislation, and they derived great benefit, but left the state with a set of regulations that make no sense whatsoever.  Don’t feel bad if you’re having trouble understanding this.  It took me years to figure it out.”

OK, I feel a bit better.  But it sure is a shame that our health and safety — not to mention economical well-being — is being manipulated by a few greedy pigs.

And not to sound pessimistic, but we really seem to be a million miles from straightening this out.  In essense, you have huge business interests in the energy industry that have no incentive to move this in the right direction.  Are we expecting them to do it anyway?  Doesn’t sound too likely to me.

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Europe has had a much higher cost of fuel for decades.  After the oil shocks of the 1970’s, many of the countries took action. Europe is far ahead of the U.S. in moving to smaller and more fuel-efficient cars, hybrids, EVs and Europe has adopted a greener outlook than the U.S.  Yet, even so, the EU still depends on oil and oil products for energy and transport needs.

Now the European Commission has a new aim, outlined in a recent White Paper. It aims to phase out and eliminate gasoline and diesel-powered cars in cities by 2050 among other things.

(more…)

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There are elements of the energy business that I find monstrously complex – namely, everything but the technology. The political wranglings – the way the federal, regional, state, and local agencies work in conjunction with the utilities and the regulatory bodies – appear to be the ultimate rats’ nest.

Here’s a good example of how nutty this looks: the power utilities in the US remain uninterested in – and in some cases actively resistant to — electric vehicles. Is there anything not to like about EVs if you’re a utility? It means sales of off-peak power, of which there is a super abundance, and it means stable, long-term growth as electricity replaces oil. Isn’t that good? Maybe someone can explain this.

Of course, the incentives that utilities have are quite enigmatic. It’s said that the real core competency of utilities is the management of regulators. The game is finding clever ways to pass through your costs to the rate-payers. And that represents a nasty little element of the equation: utilities can pass through fuel costs, so getting rid of coal in favor of a resource in which the fuel is free (e.g., solar and wind) represents zero gain in profitability.

In fact, utilities couldn’t care less what fuel they use – or what technologies they’re mandated to use. As long as they can make 12% return on their invested cash, they’ll happily do anything they’re told. Want wave/tidal power in Kansas? No problem, let me charge my customers what it costs to get me 12% on that, and it’s a deal.

It’s one of those moments where I wish I were king of the world. I just think of how easy it would be to create a way to regulate utilities that would provide incentive to do the right thing. I’m available to function as king, btw, but so far I haven’t received the invitation to serve.

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I may have mentioned that I’m on a personal quest to figure out the dynamics of our society’s migration from fossil fuels to renewables.  To that end, I conducted a 90-minute interview over lunch today with Wally Rippel, Cal Tech physics star of the 1960s, whose half-century career took him to places very few of us can imagine in terms of understanding the issues: technological, economic, and political, that form the underpinnings of where we are as an energy-consuming society. 

In preparation for my next book, I’m anxious to get as many different viewpoints as I can on our society’s apparent resistance to change with respect to energy, and this was a terrific experience.  More soon.

 

 

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I have three meetings tomorrow, starting with a book interview about 140 miles from here with my old friend Wally Rippel.  Wally’s been following the controversy on cold fusion pretty much since its inception 20+ years ago, and there is no one whose judgement I trust more to help me navigate this tricky subject.

Of course, whenever I write something like this I get comments to the effect that cold fusion is theoretically impossible, a hoax, a rip-off, etc.  Guess what: I’ve heard that. J

But before you write, please recall that this is what they were saying about heavier-than-air flight a few months before the Wright Brothers made a bit of news in Kitty Hawk.

And even its learned opponents know that there is nothing “theoretically impossible” about cold fusion.  So will it come to fruition as a workable technology on this planet? I’m not sure. But the upside potential is so large and the cost of paying attention to the many hundreds of serious scientists pursuing the matter so small, I really can’t imagine the reason for all the animus on the subject.  

In any case, more on this later.

From Wally’s office, it’s on to a mid-afternoon meeting at the Huntington Library.  I’m often shocked at how frequently people meet their guests at the neighborhood Starbucks, when they could have chosen places that would have been more meaningful.  My advice: enjoy the moment.  Seen enough of conference rooms?  I’m sure I have.  Take your business guest to places that inspire creative conversations. 

Then, it’s on to dinner in Orange County, if I can get across town at that hour, for a talk with an entrepreneur in the electric vehicle space.  He’s an inventor I’ve met before, whose development may make a meaningful contribution to the penetration of  EVs in the next few years. 

If my mother is reading this, I know she’ll be thinking, “I hope he gets a good breakfast in the morning.”  Thanks, Mom.  I promise. I’ll do that.

The Paris-based International Energy Agengy (IEA) issued this report on electric vehicles recently, which suggests that national governments around the world are competing to be the leader in the new transportation technology of the 21st century, setting ambitious deployment targets in the millions: 1.5 million by 2015, 100 million by 2050; or half of all light-duty vehicles sold in mid-century.

But like EVWorld.com editor Bill Moore, I’m wondering exactly what this means. I’m thrilled to have someone targeting an aggressive growth curve – and, in the process, acknowledging that without such a migration, we’re dooming our population to the ravages of climate change and other ecological disasters. Yet I think we need to realize the difference between a target coming out of a think tank and a phenomenon that actually happens in the real world.

The largest variable, arguably, is consumer demand. Carmakers can be counted on to respond to a population clamoring for a certain mode of vehicle, and enterprising businesses will have no trouble sorting out the charging infrastructure in a great hurry once demand is in place. Yet, as Moore observes in his article on the IEA report, “a body at rest tends to stay at rest,” reminding us that people resist change.

Will this be the huge issue that everyone seems to fear?  It’s true that people buy things (especially cars) that are an expression of their self-image. Trust me, I didn’t spend 30 years as a marketing consultant without running into that one. But we’ve all seen that the self-image and sensibilities of large percentages of our population can change very quickly. And we’ve even seen very rapid change in automotive designs (e.g., the VW Beetle, muscle cars, station wagons, SUVs, and crossovers).

Will that happen here? I can’t say for sure, but there’s certainly no reason that it couldn’t.  Also, keep in mind that it’s possible that “going green” could become the cool thing to do.  If we can offer the consumer a high quality EV with a decent range, at a decent price, I’ve predicted that they’ll sell like hotcakes.

So could these Parisian boys be right?  There are a great number of “ifs” going forward, but I’m hoping so.   

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If you’re available on Wednesday, July 27th, I hope you’ll attend a very special webinar that I’ll be conducting with Kathryn Alexander, the CEO of Ethical Impact. Kathryn is one of the kindest and most enlightened people you’ll ever run across, and one of the world’s top experts in corporate sustainability.

In the course of the last few years, I’ve become increasingly aware of the truly excellent work that some of our most visible corporate citizens have done in this arena — and Kathryn’s been a part of many of these most fantastic transitions.

I hope you’ll join us as we talk about topics like:

♦ The Ecological Laws that act as Environmental Imperatives that have guided life and all interdependent systems on this planet for millennia.

♦ How acting in concert with nature shouldn’t be seen as a cost item, but as an opportunity to create inventive new profit centers.

♦ The practical systems of innovation that are based on the ecological laws and wisdom of nature.

♦ Biomimicry, and how can your business processes be enhanced by learning from 3.7 billion years of nature’s own research.

♦ How you, as a business leader, can extract yourself from old-line thinking, begin to think like nature, and seed innovation into the DNA of your organization.

Again, I hope you’ll be able to attend.  Here’s the sign-up form:

http://2greenenergy.com/free-webinar/

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Here’s a short animated video aptly called “The Price of Gas” that takes the viewer through the comprehensive costs to the environment of exploration, extraction, shipping, refinement of crude, and the distribution and consumption of gasoline. Very nicely done, IMHO.

It’s the work of the nonprofit organization Center for Investigative Reporting, who, since their inception in 1977, has worked to reveal injustice and strengthen democracy through journalism.

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