I never know what to make of the frequent references I come across to the International Monetary Fund. Who exactly are these mysterious and terribly powerful people? How do they work? What are their true motivations?
In any case, they most certainly get some points for being on the right side of this “subsidies for fossil fuels” issue. In fact, if this article is an accurate depiction of their stance on the subject, they’ve nailed it exactly: the world’s attempt to make gasoline artificially cheap is ruining the planet, by encouraging its use, as well as by destroying any viable process for the development of alternative sources of energy.
Here’s the “teaser” for my talk this afternoon at the Santa Barbara Savvy Investors’ Club. As implied here, I intend to make a wide-ranging presentation that gets into some philosophic stuff; I know this audience from past meetings, and I believe they’ll respond well. We’ll see….
Our expanding population sports a growing hunger for energy, which, because it’s fed by fossil fuels, is ruining our planet’s ability to support most forms of life. Yet, the concept of humankind’s dealing effectively with a challenge of this scale remains dubious at best.
And the situation here in the U.S. is plagued by something even thornier: the fossil fuel industries have a stranglehold on our decision-making. Note that, after leading the world in the development of IT and communications in the 20th Century, America is committed to doing essentially nothing in terms of “new energy,” an industry that is obviously critically important in today’s world. Not only are we not leading, we’re not even following very well; we’re trying to pretend it doesn’t exist.
Does this bode well? Nope. Not for American competitiveness in the 21st Century, nor for the quality of life facing our civilization. But can we architect a soft landing? This month’s speaker believes so. He’ll explain why – and then he’ll go you one better: he’ll tell you – in the face of all this mess — where the pockets of true business opportunity lie.
Here’s an article that lays out three choices available to electricity rate-payers: deregulation (“customer choice”), municipal aggregation (“city choice”), and municipal utilities (“city ownership”), and goes on to discuss the merits of each. In the last case, a municipality’s purchasing and operating the assets of what was previously an independent utility, provides the opportunity for the citizenry of an enlightened city like Austin, TX, to make a huge push for renewable energy.
Frequent commenter and all-around good guy Tim Kingston sent me this video on an ostensible breakthrough in solar PV for my comment.
I see claims like this constantly, and I’m never sure exactly how to evaluate them, since this isn’t my area of expertise. My own sense suggests that this particular one is not credible, based on the way it’s presented and some of the claims it makes. Yes, of course the world needs a way to minimize photons from reflecting, as well as from passing straight through. And yes, the way to deal with this is to get photons bouncing around, i.e., in three dimensions. My wife and kids know this. In fact, it’s possible that my dogs know this, since they hang out in my office and hear it so often.
But trapping photons in the way they describe will not produce the outrageous increases in efficiencies they claim.
When I go to solar shows, I run into hundreds of people who have made this subject their life’s work. Did these Solar 3D people make a breakthrough where others have failed? They do have a video… and one of their people does have a Russian (Ukranian?) accent; perhaps he’s one of these super-scientists from that part of the world. And … (wait for it) … they’re only one measly year away from commercialization.
Tim: Sorry to be sarcastic. I guess I would say that it’s possible, but I would have to think this is extremely unlikely.
On Sunday afternoons, I like to take a decent hike, say 7 or 8 miles, and wind up at a nice place where I can get a beer, shake a few hands, and discuss what’s going on in the world. Today was a banner day for this enterprise, as there were several groups at my destination (The Los Olivos Café, pictured here) with whom I had stimulating talks.
One guy was an industrial plastics salesman; this didn’t seem to hold much promise until I learned that one of his key accounts is the FPL (Florida Power and Light) solar thermal project here in California. He sells the piping, connectors, and a whole bunch of other stuff to one of the most exciting renewable energy projects in the region.
But as one would have expected from any respectable German company, there is nothing too radical here; in particular, there is no attempt to redefine transportation as we know it. Having said that, one could argue that BMW has begun to embrace the splitting of the auto world into “urban commuter vehicles” vs. the larger, heavier, ultra-luxury vehicles that the company hopes will continue to be prominent in country club parking lots for a very long time to come.
Here’s a renewable energy idea that frequent commenter Tim Kingston sent me. It doesn’t seem reasonable, but I thought I’d ask the physicists out there to comment. It’s a device that emits tiny droplets of water from electrical conductors (copper pipes with thousands of tiny holes?) that are placed in the wind. The droplets pick up electrical charge, and, when they’re blown away, cause the conductor to take on the opposite charge.
There is nothing theoretically impossible about this, and I love the concept that it doesn’t have moving parts that wear out. But the electrical field that is created (and thus the electrical energy that can be derived from it) comes from the kinetic energy of the wind. You’re not going to get more energy out of this than the theoretical maximum (as prescribed by Betz’ Law) regardless of what device you insert into the path of the wind. Am I not right? And how much of that total energy can be converted into blowing droplets off their pipes? I would think it would be a minute fraction. What am I missing?
I’m reminded of Emerson: “Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.”
Here’s a note I just wrote in response to a fairly glum email I received in response to that post:
Thanks very much for taking the time to write. You make some excellent points here. I think the bottom line is hoping that Washington will clean up its act is foolish. That, however, doesn’t mean a sensible approach to energy won’t happen. Hometown America really gets this, and many of the largest corporate entities are doing fabulous work.
In the meanwhile, I urge you to remain active and not lose your enthusiasm for turning this around.
The main obstacle facing cleantech generally is that it tends to be more expensive than what it’s replacing, but here’s an example of the opposite case. 2GreenEnergy associate Lindsay Oliver sent me this article on “green” bonds that are gaining favor in the market, and are used to fund the development of renewable energy projects. They’re selling like hotcakes, precisely because investors love the value: the three-year, triple-A rated bonds, unwritten by Citigroup, J. P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley, currently yielding 15 basis points above the comparable U.S. government securities.